The latest GFS proves my point (or, rather, DMPs point) about GFS- the low at the 7-10 day range now slips south and fills enough to allow warm uppers further NW in Europe, and by day 11 this starts to advect in a NEly towards the UK.
By day 12 http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gfs/06_288_mslp850.png?cb=649
there is a brisk NEly with a low just to the east of us, in 10C+ uppers. This warmth consolidates over the following couple of days.
Now I'm not naïve enough to think this is what will happen at this range; nor would I entrust the 00z run any more at this range. But I certainly wouldn't be casting my line out into the mid-stream of mid-summer. The main point is, that if the GFS makes changes like this on a 6-hourly scale, why are the lamentations coming out because of the recent threat of a Scandi low setting up into FI?
Edited by user
16 July 2017 12:28:33
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Reason: poor choice of metaphor
Bertie, Itchen Valley.
'We'll never see 40 celsius in this country'.