Ridiculous inconsistency from the models. How anyone can confidently predict anything past midweek are lying to themselves. Another complete about turn from ECM and no doubt GFS will follow suit later. As I said yesterday I've never seen such volatility from run to run.
One wonders if some kind of pattern change may be afoot, Kieren. I have seen people comment in here in the past that sometimes the models struggle a lot, including the normally trusted ones, if they are picking up the beginnings of a change in pattern.
One thing is for sure, which is that after all the volte-faces we have seen in the past week alone, I'm taking the output with a rather larger pinch of salt that I would do normally, and I'd advise all regular followers of the output to do likewise if they want to retain their sanity!
Edited by user
16 July 2017 19:21:46
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Reason: Not specified
Lenzie, Glasgow
"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022