Looks like from the middle of next week a trough will be stuck over the UK for quite some time, based on this morning's output. ECM at least has it centred a bit further north by 240hrs allowing high pressure to exert more influence on the south, but it's a pretty unsettled outlook which makes a complete mockery of the LRFs and even MRFs of early July.

I think "uninspiring" might sum up the current outlook quite nicely. It's not unusual for the UK but something more summery would be nicer and may arrive in due course although that area of low pressure looks remarkably persistent.

The precipitation graph for this morning's ECM ensemble shows what appears to be a small but steady daily rise in the volume of rainfall for most of the 50 ensemble runs for the next fortnight. Suggests, as you say, that an area of low pressure will always be influencing things.

I like the green precipitation run on the London ens:
http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

Sunshine and showers?

UKMO shows plenty of ridging at days 3 4 and 6:

UKMO shows plenty of ridging at days 3 4 and 6:

Ridging is a poor substitute for a proper anticyclone! It looks as if the UKMO models are going to keep us on the edge of our seats but GFS 12z has no difficulty in bringing up one depression after another in the medium term. The depressions are fairly shallow, so if that verifies, sunshine and showers are our weather for the next week or so.

 

Ridging is a poor substitute for a proper anticyclone! It looks as if the UKMO models are going to keep us on the edge of our seats but GFS 12z has no difficulty in bringing up one depression after another in the medium term. The depressions are fairly shallow, so if that verifies, sunshine and showers are our weather for the next week or so.

Showers are the worse weather type and they always wreck the whole summer in the past.  You get a band of rain that last for few hours but showers come along that last a week to few weeks non-stop.   We are in high summer now and shame the heat won't come at this time now.

GFS offers some fragile anticyclonic hope for southerners in week 2.  Fine margins will determine the character of the next phase, the general rule being the further N and W the more exposed to depressions, the further S and E the greater propensity to settled conditions at times, but its a bit of a mess all round.

From a northern perspective looking at the the charts this morning made me thInk that summer needed a little message...

A gentle rain falls softly on my weary eyes
As if to hide a lonely tear
My life will be forever autumn,
'Cause you're not here

Sadly it feels that way and while not terrible the outlook continues to look unsettled and cyclonic for northern parts of throughout.

As Neil says there is definitely a lot of heat around over parts of mainland Europe but at the moment there is not much sign of that heading our way. However as we have seen this season things can change with relatively little notice. Overall I would expect unsettled conditions for much of the time based on current output. I would not however rule out much more settled weather moving in from the south if the low eventually clears off.

It seems at the moment that the UKMO is picking up on and the GFS is finding it's way but not as good as the UKMO.  Low Pressure or High Pressure is changing where the eastwards movement is being suggested and the Models are showing blocking to our North and South for next week.

Not a bad ecm for  the SE and EA warm not that unsettled. Much more unsettled the further NW you go though . It's still not great for high summer but better than previous days

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.html

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.html

end of week not looking settled at all 

The charts I used to look at has stopped updating,

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/avnpanel1.html.

Looked at the GFS ensemble in the middle of the night and there were a lot of hot runs into early August. Slightly less so this morning but still looks like warming up and settling down a bit at least in the south.

I see the old WZ charts have finally bitten the dust post 240. Need to get used to the TWO chart viewer!

The new WZ charts are available and actually have more detail - or at least you can access more detail from a single web page.

Here is the GFS ENS for London http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?model=gfs&var=2&geoid=1140&lid=ENS&bw=

Here is the GEM ENS for London http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?model=gem&var=2&geoid=1140&lid=ENS&bw=

You can click on any data point and it will take you to the detailed chart. You can also highlight a section of the chart (e.g a couple of days) and it will zoom in on the data. So very flexible.

At a click of a button you can also see multiple different parameters in addition to the 850s, such as 2m temperature and rainfall.

Also at the click of another button you can see the last three runs as well as the most recent run.

Also this link shows the 850 data for the operational run of every different model on a single chart

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?model=multi&var=2&geoid=1140&lid=OP&bw=

The data is showing a warm up in the 850s over the next few days but then there is massive scatter after Friday so anything is possible.

The charts I used to look at has stopped updating,

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/avnpanel1.html.

These ones? http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/panels.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&lid=OP 

 

The data is showing a warm up in the 850s over the next few days but then there is massive scatter after Friday so anything is possible.

Thanks for those links!

As you say a huge amount of scatter as we go into August but an encouraging uptick in the number of hotter runs appearing then as well, more so than earlier this week 

Wednesday looking pretty wet.