GFS struggling in FI- odd, 'cos no one takes it seriously anyway. At least in the TWO roll-out, the 06z frames got to T+300 then failed to finish before the 12z started creeping in.

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Any sign of a warmup seems to have been binned on the 12Z GFS. And ECM is not too pretty either.

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The words "school summer holidays" trump any synoptic charts. Fine weather will be back in the second week of September.

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Looking dry for me (not particularly warm) after Wednesday's forecast rain. We'll see what happens further on....

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A typical November morning outside: drizzle sitting on the grass blades, muddy leaves in the streets, but at least it's mild. No frost this morning.

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Back to Model output, and the GFS ensembles show changeable conditions, and dry periods punctuated by wetter slots.  I note the model has decided this morning that a warm up (albeit temporary) may accompany the start of the month.  A fairly typical summer picture, in my view.

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These ones? http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/panels.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&lid=OP 

Ah, you found another site for it. Yes, that's the one I mean. They must have moved their address.

Thanks Doctormog 

Very poor 12z so far low pressure stuck like a limpit to our NW . Dreadful for high summer especially when it promised so much.

 

Ukmo day 6 sums it up. In fact gfs is even worse my advice don't look.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.html

 

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Very poor 12z so far low pressure stuck like a limpit to our NW . Dreadful for high summer especially when it promised so much.

 

Ukmo day 6 sums it up. In fact gfs is even worse my advice don't look.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.html

 

Yes GFS constantly spinning up new lows SW of eachother like a train. Moist air being dragged up with them too meaning western areas in particular seeing plenty of rain if the 12z is anything to go by.

Once again it's way past day 10 when we see any real inroads made by the Azores high 

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A typical November morning outside: drizzle sitting on the grass blades, muddy leaves in the streets, but at least it's mild. No frost this morning.

Nice. Wrong thread though. And me.

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And back to the model output

Plenty of variety available in the model output this evening. In the interests of not tripping out mordant observations on the weather,

Here is the GEM at day 8 :

Which then develops into this day 10: Which would be increasingly warm and sunny.

WI

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At least there's P02 on tonight's GFS. The most extreme outlier ever seen on a NWP ensemble?

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And back to the model output

Plenty of variety available in the model output this evening. In the interests of not tripping out mordant observations on the weather,

Here is the GEM at day 8 :

Which then develops into this day 10: Which would be increasingly warm and sunny.

WI

That's much more like it.

 

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If you remember the fine spell as predicted by the models, there was optimism that it would have lasted at least until now. Its almost as if the aforementioned thundery low and the ensuing cold pool that took the best part of 4 days to cross the country erased the majority of the fine spell leaving a couple of days early last week and the current meagre offering at this end!

Both NAO & AO are are in negative territory, and predictions are staying negative.So this does not look good for return of the Azores high? Also looking at the charts there is a strong high over central and eastern Europe, which ever seems to do us any favours. Almost like a omega block develops, and we get stuck in the trough. What interests me though what is behind these flips as others have said, the thundery low produced flip and we are now on a conveyor of lows. Why has the Azores high stopped ridging up to us strongly as it did before?

Both NAO & AO are are in negative territory, and predictions are staying negative.So this does not look good for return of the Azores high? Also looking at the charts there is a strong high over central and eastern Europe, which ever seems to do us any favours. Almost like a omega block develops, and we get stuck in the trough. What interests me though what is behind these flips as others have said, the thundery low produced flip and we are now on a conveyor of lows. Why has the Azores high stopped ridging up to us strongly as it did before?

AZ High always in a wrong place and with normal W to E flow that HP never move eastward and that shown on that dodgy 12z when I see a LP stuck almost the whole run in between Iceland and Scotland, that small LP are severely wrecking and wasting our remaining high summer time. Northern blocking as they say is supposed to the same as southern blocking with LP or HP moving eastward freely.  If the jet stream really exist then it should push the LP and HP cells faster and not stuck in same place?  

 

Bland describes this evening's offerings. Standard westerly gripe, especially affecting the NW as is usual in our normal summer pattern. Uppers lacklustre throughout

Looks pretty mixed in the mid term. Based on the amount of site traffic I've been getting in the last couple of weeks I think it's fair to assume the weather is playing havoc with UK summer hols and outdoor events. Good for my business but unfortunate for people getting rained on.

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Both NAO & AO are are in negative territory, and predictions are staying negative.So this does not look good for return of the Azores high? Also looking at the charts there is a strong high over central and eastern Europe, which ever seems to do us any favours. Almost like a omega block develops, and we get stuck in the trough. What interests me though what is behind these flips as others have said, the thundery low produced flip and we are now on a conveyor of lows. Why has the Azores high stopped ridging up to us strongly as it did before?

Part of me is wondering whether the projected switch in the AMO from a positive phase as we have at present to a negative one will do anything to improve our summers. My own view is that from the point of view of my own area, there has been a decline in the quality of our summer ever since the AMO last changed in 1998 or thenabouts, whereas prior to that year we had a run or quite reasonable ones. There is a thread discussing the AMO in the climate forum for anyone who is interested.

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The Law of Averages has come to pass. I'm expecting a mixed, rather changeable August myself. Maybe one more short lived heatwave before we wave goodbye to Summer 2017.

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