Just to add, the last time I remember 20C isotherms appearing regularly in GFS ensembles but never transpiring was 2004. An odd summer, up and down and quite hot in parts (bit with a long cold spell from mid June to mid July), but very wet in August.

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How is next week shaping up? there has been talk of potential high temperatures returning later next week especially for the south due to the extreme heat nearby on the continent or are the models now showing a more permanent pattern change countrywide to cooler and changeable conditions as we leave July and go into August?. I have the UK ComicCon in London the weekend of 29-30 July and hot weather will deter visitors from attending under Olympia's glass roof!

How is next week shaping up? there has been talk of potential high temperatures returning later next week especially for the south due to the extreme heat nearby on the continent or are the models now showing a more permanent pattern change countrywide to cooler and changeable conditions as we leave July and go into August?. I have the UK ComicCon in London the weekend of 29-30 July and hot weather will deter visitors from attending under Olympia's glass roof!

 

Gfs is pretty good this morning especially for the south and does have some heat returning 25th - 27th mid to high 20s for the SE.

Ecm however is a horror show and much more unsettled and cooler.

 

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Gfs is pretty good this morning especially for the south and does have some heat returning 25th - 27th mid to high 20s for the SE.

Ecm however is a horror show and much more unsettled and cooler.

 

Last night the Beeb were indicating that next week was going to be a week of cool weather and showers, a la ECM

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Last night the Beeb were indicating that next week was going to be a week of cool weather and showers, a la ECM

 

Yes sods law ecm will be correct.

 

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GEM isn't great either. UKMO a mixed bag. GFS a bit of a good outlier.

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So it will be hot in the south again lol

Models still in a holding pattern. GFS 06z gives us more of the same: depression, then moderate ridging in the South, turning cooler and NW, but generally weak zonal. Next 2 weeks look a bit too samey to be believable. I just hope any major change is a positive one.

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Newfangled GFS dripping out, and I think I've spotted a change in its resolution in the 0.25 scale, with a London heat island seeming to show up every night. Either this is coincidence, or the new model is resolving cities and land use differently from the old one. I know the regional models like Arpege and Arome do this.

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Last night the Beeb were indicating that next week was going to be a week of cool weather and showers, a la ECM

Yes I saw that forecast - cool and showery, with the jet stream right over the UK, was the theme.

Further proof that models are utterly useless more than a week out, as there was considered to be high confidence for a long warm and settled spell, at least in the south.

There is now rain in the forecast on 5 out of the next 7 days even down here!

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Newfangled GFS dripping out, and I think I've spotted a change in its resolution in the 0.25 scale, with a London heat island seeming to show up every night. Either this is coincidence, or the new model is resolving cities and land use differently from the old one. I know the regional models like Arpege and Arome do this.

This I think. The horizontal resolution hasn't been change IIRC.

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http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png 

Overall though it looks very average and not too dry.

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This I think. The horizontal resolution hasn't been change IIRC.

Not so sure: look at the night temperatures in the Ile de France, the effect is even more marked. I don't remember this showing up at all in the old model.

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Does anyone know whether or not it's still possible to view the entire GFS op runs on WZ? I've noticed that since the 12z appeared yesterday, it has updated up to about T+240 but not any further.

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Yes I saw that forecast - cool and showery, with the jet stream right over the UK, was the theme.

Further proof that models are utterly useless more than a week out, as there was considered to be high confidence for a long warm and settled spell, at least in the south.

There is now rain in the forecast on 5 out of the next 7 days even down here!

 

The kids school holidays are starting, what else did you expect?

 

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I like the green precipitation run on the London ens:
http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png 

Does anyone know whether or not it's still possible to view the entire GFS op runs on WZ? I've noticed that since the 12z appeared yesterday, it has updated up to about T+240 but not any further.

Yes, still showing for me.

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Looks pretty unsettled but warmer at times. One thing to look out for is the possibility of hot air being pulled up ahead of low pressure areas in the Atlantic. IMO it still wouldn't take much for serious heat to return.

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Interesting future observations : currently it is much cooler here in London following the cold front passing through I would venture the coolest for some weeks with a strong breeze not normal for this high summer period

Stay on topic. I've PM'd members directly and will delete further accounts if necessary. We've lost three users in the last couple of weeks and I'll be happy to let more of the antagonistic posters go. Once you're gone you're gone! Accounts are permanently deleted and new registrations are not being accepted at the present time.

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