I can see a forthcoming in the short to mid range a four day heatwave, shown from Friday to Monday- backed by in general a Thundery Low from Spain and Bay of Biscay, and that northwest UK bound Developing Short wave trof then Low Pressure, today's 12z ECMWF really out on it's own but I can see that the UKMO looks like being closest to the outcome for T144 Monday 19th June.
The GFS tracking Low's over the North and NW UK then push down the eastern side with Pressure higher SW UK half at same time if GFS is to be believed - this does not look like what today's ECMWF is on about- it supports a freak SW UK far W and then the NW UK being on the receiving end of a Cool Low Pressure that is supporting UKMO's suggestion that on Monday first half of day should be very warm away from the West and NW far side UK.
And beyond that for next week there could be further rebuilding of High Pressure from SW Europe Azores high, with North Atlantic and NW Atlantic recurving Jetstream Flows and Waves of Low Pressure weaken as it comes closer to our West and North- we should be seeing some NW SE divide in our weather with NW side Low Pressure, with more cloudy wet weather possible but over the Eastern and Central to South UK High Pressure should bring slightly or moderately above average temperatures especially farther SE S and in Central UK.
The GFS and ECMWF as well as the UKMO will need further re analysis and checking for the 72-120 hour range and the T144's today are making me feel very excited for possible West NW France SW UK Thundery showers, Ideally I mean I wish to see them in east London but I do not mind if all of Monday the warm hot and sunny cloudless weather stays put instead- maybe it is turn for the west and NW UK to receive them which they have received many times already in the last 4 weeks. The GFS is out on it's own at T144, so they should fix it.
I have seen plenty of heavy Thundery showers this year in this month of June anyway!.😆🌞😉⛈😅😎🌞🌤.
Ps. Note if James aka Stormchaser reads this - Just edited another part about the 12z GFS for Monday to Tuesday next week because it goes different take.
Edited by user
13 June 2017 19:52:43
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Reason: Informative
Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.
The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge.
With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.