I think as per usual the models are all over the place so nothing is nailed whatsoever post seven days. If I was to take a punt I'll say the charts above won't be all that far from the reality.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn24018.gif 

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http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn24018.gif 

Even if there wasn't a single drop of rain for the rest of the month it would be notably wetter than average month

As things stand it looks odds on to be joining 1997, 2012 and 2016 in the top 10 wettest Junes on record and 2007, 2012 and 2014 in the top 10 dullest Junes on record.

Record of 25 rain days in 1927 also looks under threat. Yet another breathtakingly awful summer

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At day 5 we see where GFS (upper-left) goes wrong (I prefer to go with this terminology when speaking of GFS... ha); the Atlantic jet is flatter (the thick black line can be a loose guide here - note how it runs closer to W-E rather than SW-NE) and so a trailing front down west of the Azores is unable to remain intact, splitting apart with a shallow low becoming cut-off just west of the Azores (the loop of 1020 mb isobar). 

ECM, GEM and UKMO all align the jet more SW-NE with the trailing front staying intact, at least until a day or so later in time. This is enough that the strong ridge from the Azores would find it harder to retract west, and in any case the different jet alignment puts the low passing by Iceland on a trajectory more to the E or NE as opposed to being able to turn quite sharply SE as GFS goes with.

 

So the majority vote is for the ridge to drift slowly east instead, with the ECM 12z illustrating this very nicely for days 6-7;

 

This is very similar indeed to GEM, while UKMO is a little more clunky as the jet does not retain as much SW-NE orientation so LP passes rather close to the N, but the trailing front does its job to prevent the ridge going west, and the low heading for Scandinavia loses most of its strength before it gets there, such that it's unable to directly drive any cooler air across the UK.

The ECM 12z then goes a little tricky in terms of the evolution; the bubble of HP scooting across is not something I can recall seeing very often;

 

It;s a neat trick for the south but not so for the north where the polar boundary could produce some spells of rain. Too far ahead to worry about such details though, and for all we know GEM is still leading the way with its dramatic take on events;

 

This has changed from the past two runs in that it breaks things down a little faster and before the dangerous levels of heat have really managed to establish themselves, but the thunderstorm potential with this is pretty serious. I'd personally be happier with the ECM 12z run but for northerners' sake a stronger ridge to the north of the plume is kindly requested .

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This has changed from the past two runs in that it breaks things down a little faster and before the dangerous levels of heat have really managed to establish themselves, but the thunderstorm potential with this is pretty serious. I'd personally be happier with the ECM 12z run but for northerners' sake a stronger ridge to the north of the plume is kindly requested .

MetO models catching up with GEM. Hint of Thunderstorms in Sussex first heard on local radio this morning, this evening even more definite on BBC News Channel forecasts

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ECM looks a tad steamy out to the mid-term

Some serious heat from the latest ecm 18c 850s in a week's time.

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1202.html

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1682.html

 

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Very warm to hot from ECM this morning from t144 onwards easily into the 30s at times Midlands South

WOW! 21c 850s into Kent!

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.html

 

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UKMO extended (t168)

WOW! 21c 850s into Kent!

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.html

 

Phew - what sort of temperatures would we see from that.

 

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At day 5 we see where GFS (upper-left) goes wrong (I prefer to go with this terminology when speaking of GFS... ha); the Atlantic jet is flatter (the thick black line can be a loose guide here - note how it runs closer to W-E rather than SW-NE) and so a trailing front down west of the Azores is unable to remain intact, splitting apart with a shallow low becoming cut-off just west of the Azores (the loop of 1020 mb isobar). 

ECM, GEM and UKMO all align the jet more SW-NE with the trailing front staying intact, at least until a day or so later in time. This is enough that the strong ridge from the Azores would find it harder to retract west, and in any case the different jet alignment puts the low passing by Iceland on a trajectory more to the E or NE as opposed to being able to turn quite sharply SE as GFS goes with.

 

So the majority vote is for the ridge to drift slowly east instead, with the ECM 12z illustrating this very nicely for days 6-7;

 

This is very similar indeed to GEM, while UKMO is a little more clunky as the jet does not retain as much SW-NE orientation so LP passes rather close to the N, but the trailing front does its job to prevent the ridge going west, and the low heading for Scandinavia loses most of its strength before it gets there, such that it's unable to directly drive any cooler air across the UK.

The ECM 12z then goes a little tricky in terms of the evolution; the bubble of HP scooting across is not something I can recall seeing very often;

 

It;s a neat trick for the south but not so for the north where the polar boundary could produce some spells of rain. Too far ahead to worry about such details though, and for all we know GEM is still leading the way with its dramatic take on events;

 

This has changed from the past two runs in that it breaks things down a little faster and before the dangerous levels of heat have really managed to establish themselves, but the thunderstorm potential with this is pretty serious. I'd personally be happier with the ECM 12z run but for northerners' sake a stronger ridge to the north of the plume is kindly requested .

Great post James and thanks for your excellent informative descriptions.

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Phew - what sort of temperatures would we see from that.

 

 

I think its a long shot but if it did come off we'd be looking at mid 30s possible June record territory. 

 

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Big step towards the ecm from the gfs 6z. Not as extreme mind.

 

 

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While the model war continues (and boy is UKMO annoying with it's sort-of-GFS-like-but-flatter-ridge-so-could-push-east-again-but-can't-really-tell day 7 chart), the CFS mean for June is as much use as anything, and worth a gander as it's a quite dramatic one;

This is a total flip from the previous set of runs though so, you know, it's CFS 

 

Anyway, it's rare that ECM gets it much wrong at just 5 days range but as they say, if there's ever going to be a time... 

Generally though I still see the typical spread of progressiveness of the trough/flatness of the jet defining the weekend outcomes, with ECM slowest, GFS fastest, and UKMO somewhere in between.

Mash it all together and most of England and Wales sees a very fine weekend while the longer-term has reasonable scope for reloads should things turn fresher by Tuesday (Monday up north, and much fresher indeed in the case of GFS). Those up in Scotland and perhaps far-N. England will have to hope ECM is at least something like 80% right though.

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I think its a long shot but if it did come off we'd be looking at mid 30s possible June record territory. 

 

Just near bang on to the longest day so maybe 35-37C possible.  Anyway what ever is we will see some +30C days to come.

Increased confidence today for a heatwave, of potentially some note for some next week as the 20c 850Hpa starts to show its hand close to the south on a few perturbations.

Interesting times ahead. 

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While the model war continues (and boy is UKMO annoying with it's sort-of-GFS-like-but-flatter-ridge-so-could-push-east-again-but-can't-really-tell day 7 chart), the CFS mean for June is as much use as anything, and worth a gander as it's a quite dramatic one;

This is a total flip from the previous set of runs though so, you know, it's CFS 

 

Anyway, it's rare that ECM gets it much wrong at just 5 days range but as they say, if there's ever going to be a time... 

Generally though I still see the typical spread of progressiveness of the trough/flatness of the jet defining the weekend outcomes, with ECM slowest, GFS fastest, and UKMO somewhere in between.

Mash it all together and most of England and Wales sees a very fine weekend while the longer-term has reasonable scope for reloads should things turn fresher by Tuesday (Monday up north, and much fresher indeed in the case of GFS). Those up in Scotland and perhaps far-N. England will have to hope ECM is at least something like 80% right though.

The ECM wasn't all,that good in the 5 day range last winter SC, for what it's worth I see a fairly average outlook with some warm dry weather interspersed with cool wet ones over the next 7-14+ days. Nothing untoward lurking in the cupboard with some very useable weather.

ECM produces 28-30*C by Tuesday which is a week away, and about the same time that GFS turns things cooler.

Given the strong low-GLAAM bias of GFS/GEFS which translates to a tendency for ridges to retreat west too often and too far (false teases of wintertime northerlies are one of the most infamous examples!), one could say GFS is more likely to back down than ECM, but unfortunately exceptions can and do happen, therefore we can only see the warmer outcome as the more likely but far from guaranteed.

UKMO can be the decider when trying to place probabilities at times like this, but the past few runs have been leaning first one way then the other, so it's not proving to be of much help at the moment. Historically I have seen it move large-scale troughs too quickly, a bit like GFS often does but not to such an extreme, but I've also seen it hold blocking highs in place for too long as well - it really is a mysterious model!

12z runs start rolling out within the next hour... nervous times if you're among those looking for summer warmth to continue in the south next week while ideally extending to northern regions at the same time.

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GFS is still having none of it. Dry and mildish but nothing hot or even very warm.
Something will have to give soon and my guess is ECM will back down as GFS has been consistently modelling this cooler version of summer.

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