Matty H
18 June 2017 17:00:26

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

Definitively more unsettled on the 12z in both GFS AND UKMO models this afternoon.

Keep saying it and it'll happen eventually. 


Charmhills
18 June 2017 17:06:23

Originally Posted by: Matty H 


Keep saying it and it'll happen eventually. 



He's always on a down beat Matty.


We're gotten used to it by now.


Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
moomin75
18 June 2017 18:25:05

Originally Posted by: Matty H 


Keep saying it and it'll happen eventually. 


No No Matty, I am just saying the 12z looks definitively more unsettled. Which it does. However it is a good week away and seeing as this hot spell was initially due to end today it can't be taken as gospel in any way.


If anything the breakdown to cooler appears to be pushed back until next weekend and a week is a long time off.


I wouldn't be at all surprised to see it staying pretty warm in the south for a long while. I was just commenting on what the 12z was saying.


 


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
NickR
18 June 2017 21:57:38
Let's stick to module evaluation please guys.
Nick
Durham
[email protected]
David M Porter
18 June 2017 22:04:58

How one has fared with the weather this past week will have depended upon where one has been. I spent a week on Fort William last week and had only one fully dry day; the rest if the time it was either frequent showers persistent rain. I returned home yesterday to much drier, brighter and warmer weather though.


The models to my mind don't indicate the mother of all heatwaves at the moment but neither do they indicate a re-run of the horror show some parts of the country were experiencing this time in 2007. Fairly typical British summer fayre is how I would interpret the models at the moment.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Brian Gaze
19 June 2017 06:51:43

Arpege 00z plugging in a 35C in the south west on Wed.



Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Crepuscular Ray
19 June 2017 07:15:02
And 14 C in Edinburgh! 😂
Jerry
Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill
cultman1
19 June 2017 07:57:08
Although moving somewhat into FI territory has anyone got a grip on the models following this weekend's forthcoming noticeable cooldown and normal Atlantic Service resumed according to the 5 day Farming forecast this early morning?
richardabdn
19 June 2017 09:49:34

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


How one has fared with the weather this past week will have depended upon where one has been. I spent a week on Fort William last week and had only one fully dry day; the rest if the time it was either frequent showers persistent rain. I returned home yesterday to much drier, brighter and warmer weather though.


The models to my mind don't indicate the mother of all heatwaves at the moment but neither do they indicate a re-run of the horror show some parts of the country were experiencing this time in 2007. Fairly typical British summer fayre is how I would interpret the models at the moment.



Completely agree that the outlook is not as bad as 2007. It’s worse. I can see this catastrophic horror show of a summer finishing far wetter for E/NE Scotland than both 2007 and 2012. It is just unrelentingly awful.


There has been one fully dry day here all month and "fairly typical British Summer Fayre' are the last words that come to mind when viewing this ghastly precipitation chart http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html. 50-60mm for Central & Eastern Scotland over the next weekClose to 20mm now predicted on Wednesday when a few days ago it was looking dry.  Even 2007 and 2012 were nowhere near as persistently wet as this abysmal month has been.


Should those predictions come off that will be 150mm+ here for this month, easily beating June 1997’s record total of 140mm. In fact we will pretty much have had the entire seasonal average in just one month. The number of rain days is also on track to set a new record. Beyond dreadful 


 


Aberdeen: The only place that misses out on everything


2023 - The Year that's Constantly Worse than a Bad November
David M Porter
19 June 2017 09:53:00

Originally Posted by: richardabdn 


 


Completely agree that the outlook is not as bad as 2007. It’s worse. I can see this catastrophic horror show of a summer finishing far wetter for E/NE Scotland than both 2007 and 2012. It is just unrelentingly awful.



I wonder what you'd have made of Fort William's weather last week my friend. I was there from last Sunday until Saturday just gone and in that time we had a grand total of one mostly dry day! All the others saw either one shower after another or persistent rain/drizzle.


Aberdeen was at least due to have a rather better weekend than NW Scotland was due to get.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
richardabdn
19 June 2017 10:08:31

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


 


I wonder what you'd have made of Fort William's weather last week my friend. I was there from last Sunday until Saturday just gone and in that time we had a grand total of one mostly dry day! All the others saw either one shower after another or persistent rain/drizzle.


Aberdeen was at least due to have a rather better weekend than NW Scotland was due to get.



Your description of the weather in Fort William sounds no different to what we had last week though obviously it should be a lot better here than the west coast but that doesn't seem to be the case any more. 


Like I said we have just had one completely dry day all month which was Saturday. Sunday started good but by late afternoon it was chucking it down and the gauge picked up another 6mm. Today started nice but already the dark grey clouds have moved in. It's just relentless and if model output is accurate we will set a new rainfall record this month with way more rain than either June 2007 or 2012 produced 


Aberdeen: The only place that misses out on everything


2023 - The Year that's Constantly Worse than a Bad November
moomin75
19 June 2017 10:23:56
Signs of a potential reload on the 6z post 144hrs. In fact the warmth never leaves the south east and although cooler for sure, it looks like staying mainly dry for the foreseeable and then possibly warming up again this time next week.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
moomin75
19 June 2017 10:33:43
A week away this, but if this shifts, say, 100 miles further West we will really tap into heat from the south again.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1801.gif 

As it stands this is warm and potentially thundery but my opinion is this isn't a million miles away from another plume from the south. Mostly dry for the next 7 days in any event.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn18011.gif 
http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn18017.gif 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1804.gif 
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
moomin75
19 June 2017 10:39:16
Hmmmm..
Then this Autumnal looking chart, it's a Bullseye!!!

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2161.gif 
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
moomin75
19 June 2017 10:54:23

Just one run thankfully but this run shows the low remaining in situ for almost a week once it sets in. There has been no sign of anything resembling this from other models so should definitely not be taken as read. Having said that the MetO long range update paints a very disappointing picture too. I am not buying this yet. One run and it could all change on the next one.


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Gavin D
19 June 2017 16:53:32

Could the June temperature record of 1976 be about to go??


Brian Gaze
19 June 2017 18:26:44
Arpege 12z going for an all time June record this Wednesday. 37C!!!!!

#blowtorch

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/arpege.aspx?run=na&charthour=50&chartname=uk2mtmp&chartregion=uk-region&charttag=2m%20temp%20C 

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
moomin75
19 June 2017 18:28:32

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Arpege 12z going for an all time June record this Wednesday. 37C!!!!!

#blowtorch

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/arpege.aspx?run=na&charthour=50&chartname=uk2mtmp&chartregion=uk-region&charttag=2m%20temp%20C

Fab. I have the day off. :)


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Brian Gaze
19 June 2017 18:32:47

Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Fab. I have the day off. :)



To think that some of the analysts here were suggesting a below average CET June. It beggars belief!


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
moomin75
19 June 2017 18:36:58

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


 


To think that some of the analysts here were suggesting a below average CET June. It beggars belief!


What are your thoughts about the very unsettled GFS 12z? In isolation it looks awful but then I saw the Ensembles which show a lot of scatter quite early and some really hot members showing up again already.


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
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