Not bad at all from UKMO it could be worse

GFS 12z rolling out on TWO and there's some heat in the air- at least in the south. The HP which has been repeatedly collapsing under the mP onslaught in previous runs seems a little more assertive in this run.

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Look at these spludge temperatures forecast as max for parts of Scotland on 9th- this is at 3pm.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gfs/12_219_uk2mtmp.png?cb=64

In the second week of July, I would be really unhappy to be there in those conditions.

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Not bad at all from UKMO it could be worse

Yes.  I posted an UKMO 144 yesterday, pointing out that it was actually ok or better for most.  Good to see some higher pressure and warmth maintained at least in England. Dangerous to look too far ahead though as the output is knife edge with the NW quadrant always less settled and if the dividing line slips this could leave only the SE in the fairer conditions, or perhaps only the continent...

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GEFS12z firming up on a warm spell (at least in the south) next week.

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Not much consolation for the weather-battered rainsoaked minority though is it?

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Interesting runs this evening, some of the GFS runs develop low pressure to our west at around T+72 allowing an area of high pressure to start building to our east. A few of the runs become hot and thundery... worth keeping an eye out on for...

ECM is not quite there at this point whereas the UKMO is starting to go more strongly in the direction of the GFS.

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Speaking from a southern perspective I like what I see. The signs are there for a better than average July. Nothing to suggest a classic at this stage but once you've seen off the new ball things quickly seem more straightforward.

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Speaking from a southern perspective I like what I see. The signs are there for a better than average July. Nothing to suggest a classic at this stage but once you've seen off the new ball things quickly seem more straightforward.

 

There may be some hostile bowling from the opposition at times, and the pitch may turn after a couple of weeks, but there are reasons for cautious southern optimism for the first half of July at least, and possibly further north? Though perhaps there is a fear of the googly?

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There may be some hostile bowling from the opposition at times, and the pitch may turn after a couple of weeks, but there are reasons for cautious southern optimism for the first half of July at least, and possibly further north? Though perhaps there is a fear of the googly?

 Quite. I predict we'll be about 100/2 at lunchtime. It's the afternoon and evening sessions which will make or break the day.

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Yes looking quite warm next week especially in the South . Decent first week at Wimbledon temps 25c ish

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1202.html

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1682.html

 

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Still looking cooler than average and more unsettled in most more northern parts but perhaps not as dire as yesterday's output? Further south, as has been the trend, it looks pretty decent (increasingly so).

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 Quite. I predict we'll be about 100/2 at lunchtime. It's the afternoon and evening sessions which will make or break the day.

Is the new ball a zonal pattern and the spinners a meridional one? Dry days innings, sunshine runs and wet days wickets? I'm liking the analogy, makes a lot of sense. Also explains why Scotland and the north always wear a grey helmet during zonal westerlies.

On this basis June was more 20:20 than test match. July looking more like a 5 dayer.

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Poor output this morning and even in the south the stronger north westerly winds indicated on both GFS and ECM by day 8 would be cool and cloudy.
As for northern areas its autumnal weather all the way with absolutely no sign of the MetO July warm spell.

Andy

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Poor output this morning and even in the south the stronger north westerly winds indicated on both GFS and ECM by day 8 would be cool and cloudy.
As for northern areas its autumnal weather all the way with absolutely no sign of the MetO July warm spell.

Andy

At the moment it's only the FI section of the GFS op runs that goes as far ahead as mid-July, and we all know how reliable GFS FI is.

The MetO, for their part, seem to have been pretty consistent with their thoughts of something of an improvement generally as we go further into July, therefore one can only assume that whatever signals they are seeing which are indicating this must be fairly consistent ones.

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http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU00_120_2.png 

(And still very disappointing compared with the LTA up here)

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Bland, humid and utterly without feature would be my summation of the models this morning.

 

 

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I think there's a lot of IMBY viewing the models ( as per usual ), the South looks likely to see something resembling summer whilst those of us further North are looking at a cool to average at best with spells of rain/showers interspersed with spells of sunshine. Bog standard summer weather overall.

You see that's the the thing SC. People almost appear to think that cooler than average in normal for the north in the summer but it's not. Cooler than the south is normal. By very definition cooler than average means cooler than what would be expected compared with the long term mean for the location. In other words the outlook is a bit pants in the north.

It's standard that the south will be warmer in general than the north but what is more anamalous is that it will be warmer in the south compared to average and cooler in the north compared with their average. This simply exacerbates the N/S divide which can and should be highlighted without any allegation of IMBYism. Personally it doesn't bother me as if the NWP output is correct it will be toasty where I will be!

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As a general rule I think the NS divide is biggest in zonal conditions and smallest in meridian all ones. A few weeks ago we were seeing UK maxes on the Moray coast, in very blocked conditions.

The W/E divide also depends on zonality. Kent is the place to be when the Westerlies are on.

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