Agree with some of the comments about the weekend looking iffy. Think we'll have a better idea by Thursday. GFSP06z keeps the warmth for longer than recent GFS op runs. Fingers crossed.

 

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Its looking that from Saturday on The SW/South/SE will lose the warmth and sun? Heavy rain on the cards... it had to happen it is a bank holiday......

Looks iffy to me and I still don't think it's possible to make a call on the Bank Holiday weekend (I include Monday here). The hot and sunny angle has been pushed in the media but I would suspect a change of emphasis now. However as I said to someone in the press earlier today it's one of those situations where the balance could still tip back. On the plus side it means plenty of interest. 

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Looks iffy to me and I still don't think it's possible to make a call on the Bank Holiday weekend (I include Monday here). The hot and sunny angle has been pushed in the media but I would suspect a change of emphasis now. However as I said to someone in the press earlier today it's one of those situations where the balance could still tip back. On the plus side it means plenty of interest. 

well written Brian.. lets hope the models flip back away from the potential unsettled outlook. As stated earlier I would hope by tomorrow we will have a steer on how the weekend will turn out.

The weather for the bank holiday is looking like a forecasters nightmare. The GFS unfortnately has thundery showers developing in the South on Saturday morning spreading NE'wards.

Unusually during this time it still looks very warm and hot. In any prolonged sunny spells I still expect temperatures to hit the late 20's.

The tiniest change in it's path could mean only the far west gets hit, it is finely poised.

I'm seriously hoping this is the case or the thundery band passes Southampton in the early hours, as I have a midday barbeque planned and a trip to the common people festival in the afternoon.

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Patients still early days.....

 

well written Brian.. lets hope the models flip back away from the potential unsettled outlook. As stated earlier I would hope by tomorrow we will have a steer on how the weekend will turn out.

I'm more confident about having a barbecue on Sat than I was this morning. Looks to me as though the chance of the south east remaining very warm / hot and dry on Saturday is now pretty high. 

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Not a bad little spell of weather currently if you like it warm/hot I guess - down here it's been warm and dry since Sunday, with this looking to continue until BH Monday before some showery stuff arrives. (Bit of a question mark over Saturdays little developing LP although that probably won't affect here too much imo with the worst of the weather in the West and further North).

Thereafter still warm but more chance of some rain about albeit not a washout looks favoured at present although as with the current settled spell it wouldn't take much for HP to assert itself again. (IMBY anyway).

All in all fairly typical for early June

As an aside, imo nothing in the charts says the default pattern of winter and spring has really changed all that much, with HP never far away, so I'd really not be surprised to see some more settled stuff cropping up relatively soon. 

 

 

 

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Fascinating times ahead !

From what I've seen of the models this evening, thundery showers/rain looks confined to NI, NW England and W Scotland on Saturday. There is a risk of showers/storms in southern areas on Sunday and into Monday, fresher but still mostly fine elsewhere.

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From what I've seen of the models this evening, thundery showers/rain looks confined to NI, NW England and W Scotland on Saturday. There is a risk of showers/storms in southern areas on Sunday and into Monday, fresher but still mostly fine elsewhere.

A shift eastwards in the rain/storm risk for Saturday into Sunday, with storms now looking likely in SW, Wales, W.Mids, N.England, NI & Scotland. 

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A shift eastwards in the rain/storm risk for Saturday into Sunday, with storms now looking likely in SW, Wales, W.Mids, N.England, NI & Scotland. 

I also noticed the enembles had upgraded the uppers to 14C on Monday so a big turnaround from yesterday that showing a marked drop on Monday and from the charts I see for Monday looking quite a hot day with high 20's with possible storms later on. I would be able to record 30C few times at some point. 

GEFS showing a more changeable outlook developing >28/05. Typical that it coincides with the Bank Holiday weekend. Shows again that it's not possible to plan holidays / beanos in the UK with any confidence more than a few days ahead.

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GEFS showing a more changeable outlook developing >28/05. Typical that it coincides with the Bank Holiday weekend. Shows again that it's not possible to plan holidays / beanos in the UK with any confidence more than a few days ahead.

Our family camping trip has a familiar look to it now, a case of pitching the tent before the heavens open. 🙈

Looking at the latest FAX charts, the atlantic will be infested with small low pressure systems by Sunday, so looking good for the Bank holiday (not).

In other words a bank holiday washout from Sunday on to include the South East?

GFSP00z keeps it very warm / hot in the SE on Sunday.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfspara/00_87_uk2mtmp.png

GEFS06z are also spiking around 28/05 and tentatively after 04/06.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx?run=na&lg=850&lglocation=london

We could be heading for a hot one this year. 

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Good to hear Brian you were cautiously optimistic that all was not lost this weekend for us SE folk!

Looking good for those I don't care about 😜 but for really important people like me it's looking a dogs dinner. 😮

Edit; Sunday and Monday will be dryish anyhow. 😀

GFSP00z keeps it very warm / hot in the SE on Sunday.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/gfspara/00_87_uk2mtmp.png

 

 

That will be an unexpected treat, Brian, were it to verify. I have told my hostess 24c and risk of thunderstorms, but she will be nagging me for an update soon! 

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