GFS 6z has it turning very warm next week. My recollection of the June heatwave is the models undercooked upper air temps significantly at 7 to 10 days, but I could be wrong. It wouldn't take much tweaking for #blowtorch conditions to return to the south.

 

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As a general rule I think the NS divide is biggest in zonal conditions and smallest in meridian all ones. A few weeks ago we were seeing UK maxes on the Moray coast, in very blocked conditions.

The W/E divide also depends on zonality. Kent is the place to be when the Westerlies are on.

Yes, that sounds right Tim. As Brian suggests I think the 06z GFS op run looks a bit warmer overall (even up here). I do think that for many southern parts things could get pretty warm at times over the next couple of weeks.

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Looking good again for here next week onward. Not so good the further north you go, although that's not unusual for summer  

Re NIMBYism. Happens all year round. During the winter the south members are chastised if they don't  express interest and joy if snow is forecast for a part of Scotland. I tend to ignore it. It's usually the same people. I get it though. 

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GEFS rolling out. P08 looking warm end of next week.

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But P20's the nicest overall

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You see that's the the thing SC. People almost appear to think that cooler than average in normal for the north in the summer but it's not. Cooler than the south is normal. By very definition cooler than average means cooler than what would be expected compared with the long term mean for the location. In other words the outlook is a bit pants in the north.

It's standard that the south will be warmer in general than the north but what is more anamalous is that it will be warmer in the south compared to average and cooler in the north compared with their average. This simply exacerbates the N/S divide which can and should be highlighted without any allegation of IMBYism. Personally it doesn't bother me as if the NWP output is correct it will be toasty where I will be!

I guess some just don't understand statistics. 

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You see that's the the thing SC. People almost appear to think that cooler than average in normal for the north in the summer but it's not. Cooler than the south is normal. By very definition cooler than average means cooler than what would be expected compared with the long term mean for the location. In other words the outlook is a bit pants in the north.

It's standard that the south will be warmer in general than the north but what is more anamalous is that it will be warmer in the south compared to average and cooler in the north compared with their average. This simply exacerbates the N/S divide which can and should be highlighted without any allegation of IMBYism. Personally it doesn't bother me as if the NWP output is correct it will be toasty where I will be!

Indeed. 👍🏻

You see that's the the thing SC. People almost appear to think that cooler than average in normal for the north in the summer but it's not. Cooler than the south is normal. By very definition cooler than average means cooler than what would be expected compared with the long term mean for the location. In other words the outlook is a bit pants in the north.

It's standard that the south will be warmer in general than the north but what is more anamalous is that it will be warmer in the south compared to average and cooler in the north compared with their average. This simply exacerbates the N/S divide which can and should be highlighted without any allegation of IMBYism. Personally it doesn't bother me as if the NWP output is correct it will be toasty where I will be!

But in the winter the 'north' gets the cold, ice days, below average temps, and snow. Meanwhile down here in the 'south' its normally mild & frost free let alone below average. It would seem it's far easier for the south to be above average in both summer & winter whilst reversely the north finds it easier to be below.    

 

But in the winter the 'north' gets the cold, ice days, below average temps, and snow. Meanwhile down here in the 'south' its normally mild & frost free let alone below average. It would seem it's far easier for the south to be above average in both summer & winter whilst reversely the north finds it easier to be below.    

I'm not so sure that this is always the case because due to the close proximity of the SE of England to the near continent, it can sometimes be the case that it is actually SE England which gets the coldest weather in winter whenever there is more of a continental air mass in play. January of this year was a casing point here because in that month, the SE of England was actually colder than average during that month whilst the rest of us up here in Scotland was still milder than average due to a much greater Atlantic influence.

 

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But in the winter the 'north' gets the cold, ice days, below average temps, and snow. Meanwhile down here in the 'south' its normally mild & frost free let alone below average. It would seem it's far easier for the south to be above average in both summer & winter whilst reversely the north finds it easier to be below.    

In the winter the north's long term average is colder. Is there is evidence that month's are more likely to be even further below the average value? This would suggests that the winters are getting colder up here compared with the WMO climate means. (Of course it will usually be colder than further south, that's the climate).

If the north normally got colder than average for a certain season or the south normally gets warmer than average surely that shows that the averages are incorrect? Do you think that is the case. On average any area should over a period of time average out at the mean unless the climate has changed?

We all know (presumably) that the average for the south is higher than that of the north, so that is a moot point and not what is being discussed. Some don't like it I realise that but it doesn't change the validity of discussing it. This is why my comments on temperatures are not N v S in isolation but conparison with the long term averages for the locality.

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We all know (presumably) that the average for the south is higher than that of the north

I think that's the key point to understand. The BBC showed the provisional June 2017 temperature and rainfall anomaly maps last night, where 5km gridpoint datasets for June are compared to the 30 year average (1981 to 2010) 5km datasets for the same location. Thus you are comparing apples with apples in order to say that for my location it was warmer than the average for my location and wetter than the average for my location last month.

 

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I think that's the key point to understand. The BBC showed the provisional June 2017 temperature and rainfall anomaly maps last night, where 5km gridpoint datasets for June are compared to the 30 year average (1981 to 2010) 5km datasets for the same location. Thus you are comparing apples with apples in order to say that for my location it was warmer than the average for my location and wetter than the average for my location last month.

 

Indeed!

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The June anomaly maps show a slight North-South gradient, but a much bigger EW gradient. Compared to average Aberdeen did about as well as Exeter. Newcastle did better than Bournemouth.

On rainfall it was different. The North and coasts (except outer Hebrides) got a lot, the inland South and Midlands less.

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Just noticed the GFSP06z goes up to 30C next Friday.

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GFS 12z puts parts of the south back into the low 30s later next week

Just noticed the GFSP06z goes up to 30C next Friday.

Thanks for bringing us back to the models, Brian!

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Please sir may I bank GEFS 12z p15?

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Looks like a pretty good week ahead in the south but more changeable as you head further north.

GEFS suggests pretty decent first half of July in the south. GFS is quite bullish about 2m max temps this Fri / Sat approaching 30C in the south. That's about 8C above the average. 

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Good analysis Brian. Looking pretty decent for the south. Settled and increasingly warm/hot as things stand. 🌞👍👌

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I see even southerners or at least those that are from what could be classed as the south talking about a 'return' to summer like temperatures, and this has me miffed!

We've had three consecutive days now of summer temperatures, and (at least for here) the coming 7 days are also expected to bring summer temperatures.

Do people think that summer temperatures have to be in the high 20's low 30's or something to be classed as summer temperatures down here??