Interesting runs this evening, some of the GFS runs develop low pressure to our west at around T+72 allowing an area of high pressure to start building to our east. A few of the runs become hot and thundery... worth keeping an eye out on for...

ECM is not quite there at this point whereas the UKMO is starting to go more strongly in the direction of the GFS.

Speaking from a southern perspective I like what I see. The signs are there for a better than average July. Nothing to suggest a classic at this stage but once you've seen off the new ball things quickly seem more straightforward.

There may be some hostile bowling from the opposition at times, and the pitch may turn after a couple of weeks, but there are reasons for cautious southern optimism for the first half of July at least, and possibly further north? Though perhaps there is a fear of the googly?

 Quite. I predict we'll be about 100/2 at lunchtime. It's the afternoon and evening sessions which will make or break the day.

Yes looking quite warm next week especially in the South . Decent first week at Wimbledon temps 25c ish

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1202.html

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1682.html

Is the new ball a zonal pattern and the spinners a meridional one? Dry days innings, sunshine runs and wet days wickets? I'm liking the analogy, makes a lot of sense. Also explains why Scotland and the north always wear a grey helmet during zonal westerlies.

On this basis June was more 20:20 than test match. July looking more like a 5 dayer.

At the moment it's only the FI section of the GFS op runs that goes as far ahead as mid-July, and we all know how reliable GFS FI is.

The MetO, for their part, seem to have been pretty consistent with their thoughts of something of an improvement generally as we go further into July, therefore one can only assume that whatever signals they are seeing which are indicating this must be fairly consistent ones.

Bland, humid and utterly without feature would be my summation of the models this morning.

You see that's the the thing SC. People almost appear to think that cooler than average in normal for the north in the summer but it's not. Cooler than the south is normal. By very definition cooler than average means cooler than what would be expected compared with the long term mean for the location. In other words the outlook is a bit pants in the north.

It's standard that the south will be warmer in general than the north but what is more anamalous is that it will be warmer in the south compared to average and cooler in the north compared with their average. This simply exacerbates the N/S divide which can and should be highlighted without any allegation of IMBYism. Personally it doesn't bother me as if the NWP output is correct it will be toasty where I will be!

GFS 6z has it turning very warm next week. My recollection of the June heatwave is the models undercooked upper air temps significantly at 7 to 10 days, but I could be wrong. It wouldn't take much tweaking for #blowtorch conditions to return to the south.

Yes, that sounds right Tim. As Brian suggests I think the 06z GFS op run looks a bit warmer overall (even up here). I do think that for many southern parts things could get pretty warm at times over the next couple of weeks.

Looking good again for here next week onward. Not so good the further north you go, although that's not unusual for summer  

Re NIMBYism. Happens all year round. During the winter the south members are chastised if they don't  express interest and joy if snow is forecast for a part of Scotland. I tend to ignore it. It's usually the same people. I get it though. 

I guess some just don't understand statistics. 

But in the winter the 'north' gets the cold, ice days, below average temps, and snow. Meanwhile down here in the 'south' its normally mild & frost free let alone below average. It would seem it's far easier for the south to be above average in both summer & winter whilst reversely the north finds it easier to be below.    

I'm not so sure that this is always the case because due to the close proximity of the SE of England to the near continent, it can sometimes be the case that it is actually SE England which gets the coldest weather in winter whenever there is more of a continental air mass in play. January of this year was a casing point here because in that month, the SE of England was actually colder than average during that month whilst the rest of us up here in Scotland was still milder than average due to a much greater Atlantic influence.

In the winter the north's long term average is colder. Is there is evidence that month's are more likely to be even further below the average value? This would suggests that the winters are getting colder up here compared with the WMO climate means. (Of course it will usually be colder than further south, that's the climate).

If the north normally got colder than average for a certain season or the south normally gets warmer than average surely that shows that the averages are incorrect? Do you think that is the case. On average any area should over a period of time average out at the mean unless the climate has changed?

We all know (presumably) that the average for the south is higher than that of the north, so that is a moot point and not what is being discussed. Some don't like it I realise that but it doesn't change the validity of discussing it. This is why my comments on temperatures are not N v S in isolation but conparison with the long term averages for the locality.