I actually read on an American forum that the GFS update has proved highly ineffective and is now going to be subject to further revisions in a bid to actually close the gap on ECM... except that model also has a parallel in progress that would likely move the goal further away again
Briefly, here's a neat illustration as to why I'm not too concerned about GFS' constant bid to bring a broad trough across the UK by the final days of the month;
The 06z on the left has the straight, flat jet that seems very out of place for the summer but would be possible if GLAAM dropped as far as GEFS have been indicating, but the 12z has wavier, weaker jet that's more in keeping with GLAAM holding up higher such as should be expected given a neutral ENSO background.
This adjustment leaves GFS needing several more days to force the pattern toward the broad UK trough. There's only so far this GLAAM forcing can go against observation data suggesting otherwise.
Hoping ECM with it's reduced prediction of MJO phase 2 activity can behave itself in the 7-10 day range tonight, particularly having now had the very warm weather cut short by a day compared to the 00z model consensus (shallow low moves through Thu instead of Fri).
Actually the +168 just rolled out and...
I'm afraid it's being a bit of a twit about things. Why's it so obsessed with high-latitude blocking at the moment? A world away from GFS and GEM (well, only until day 9 in the case of the latter... hmm).
Seems like a good time to focus on the short-mid range instead
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