The MetO updates for this month haven't been that far off the mark. They went for an unsettled opening to June, followed by a drier and warmer spell around mid-month beofre a return to more unsettled weather towards the end of the month. That is pretty much how the month has panned out in reality.
That is not to say that their anticipated improvement for mid-July will definitely happen, but if their current thoughts for July end up being as accurate as their predictions for June, summer isn't over yet by any means.
The predictions for June may well have fine, but that hasn't been enough to prevent this month from being much wetter than average overall, and I'm not sure if that was accurately predicted or not. If we assume that the June predictions were accurate though, this might have ended up being a fluke. That can sometimes have even with long term models as we found out last year when the CFS predicted about six months in advance, the really really mild and wet winter which would later follow in 2015/16.
Most people at the time (including gavin P. in his videos at that time) saw such an extreme forecasts so far in advance as being very much over the top, but the CFS continued to stuck to its guns and in the end, that was exactly what happened. However, that is probably about the only time in which they have even come close to getting that right, and that in turn shows that long term modelling can never be taken seriously.
It is the same with the Met Office as well, and we have to remember that this is the same Met Office who a number of years ago, was pulverised by the public and the media for predicting the barbecue summer which never actually happened, or the mild winter in arond 2009/10 which as we all know, never happened either. In fact this public criticism was so great that not long afterwards, they were actually forced to give up on publicly announcing their long term forecasts altogether over the media.
I will stress though that I'm not actually criticising the Met Office in any way here. What actually happened here was a result of a misunderstanding at the time by the public regarding the nature in which long term modelling works, or the fact that this can never really be fully relied upon and I don't mactually think that Met Office were in any way at fault here. Neverthless, the fact that long term modelling can never be fully relied on means that although they might have predicted June fairly well, that still doesn't mean that I can fully trust any of those hints of better weather in July which they have been giving.
The reason for is that is simply down to the fact that long term forecasting can never be fully reliable, and not because I don't trust the Met Office in particular. What I mentioned above is therefore, what I think will happen during the rest of the summer based on SSTs, the NAO and the AO but as with any other form of longer term forecasting, I hope that you will also take this as something which can never be fully relied upon but something which you can draw your own conclusions from.
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.