Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
19 June 2017 18:59:27

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Arpege 12z going for an all time June record this Wednesday. 37C!!!!!

#blowtorch

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/arpege.aspx?run=na&charthour=50&chartname=uk2mtmp&chartregion=uk-region&charttag=2m%20temp%20C

Oh heck!    I don't suppose bikinis are suitable wear for funerals!  


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Brian Gaze
19 June 2017 19:02:42

Originally Posted by: Caz 


Oh heck!    I don't suppose bikinis are suitable wear for funerals!  



Sorry to hear about your mum. Agree it's not the best weather for funerals or weddings for that matter. I got married in July 99 and I remember it being too hot!


Brian Gaze
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Brian Gaze
19 June 2017 19:05:15

Originally Posted by: moomin75 


What are your thoughts about the very unsettled GFS 12z? In isolation it looks awful but then I saw the Ensembles which show a lot of scatter quite early and some really hot members showing up again already.



I'd sooner let the bowler get me out than the pitch.


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David M Porter
19 June 2017 19:30:13

ECM 12z looks a lot better in comparison to it's GFS counterpart.


I would take all output, but especially that from GFS, with a pinch of salt at the moment. Anyone who has followed this model over a long period of time will know that sometimes it has a habit of overdoing lows coming off the atlantic before watering them down somewhat.


Lenzie, Glasgow

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TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
19 June 2017 19:46:07

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


 


I'd sooner let the bowler get me out than the pitch.



There are a couple of ensemble runs that would give the near continent the equivalent of a 5th day crumbler in Lahore. P7, P10, P16 and P17 all give France something akin to early August 2003, but 2 months early and with stronger sunshine. P7 peaks the 850s over central France on the 2nd July at around 28C. That would, assuming strong sunshine and subject to keeping a lid on instability, give max temps of 43-46C.


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Stormchaser
19 June 2017 20:00:10

 


 


Thanks for the directions to those most mind-boggling of ensemble members Tim 


Amazing to contrast these with the operational run. Interestingly enough, while some of these simply mature the trough further west rather than letting it barrel on east like there's no tomorrow, a couple resemble the ECM 12z run for early next week with a ridge from the Azores over the top of an Iberian 'heat low'.


Goes to show, we really don't have a flying clue what next week is actually going to get up to 


 


I wonder if particularly intense heat plumes can interfere with the efforts by LP systems to move them aside due to there being a huge dome of hot air that resembles a strong ridge in terms of the tropopause height (despite the lowered surface pressure values)...?


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Brian Gaze
19 June 2017 20:01:33

Originally Posted by: TimS 


 


There are a couple of ensemble runs that would give the near continent the equivalent of a 5th day crumbler in Lahore. P7, P10, P16 and P17 all give France something akin to early August 2003, but 2 months early and with stronger sunshine. P7 peaks the 850s over central France on the 2nd July at around 28C. That would, assuming strong sunshine and subject to keeping a lid on instability, give max temps of 43-46C.



 Yes there is some incredible heat around. P16 worth highlighting indeed:



Brian Gaze
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doctormog
19 June 2017 20:37:20
I'm hopeful at some stage up here we may get more than a day and a half of heat. The next week seems a little cooler and wetter than average, whereas overall for many southern and central parts the chances of much much warmer and drier conditions remains high.
Bertwhistle
19 June 2017 20:47:42

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


 


 Yes there is some incredible heat around. P16 worth highlighting indeed:




P16 is indeed the one, Brian- a June UK temperature record in there:


http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gefs/16_246_2mtmpmax.png?cb=697


Not the form horse, of course.


 


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Brian Gaze
19 June 2017 20:50:32

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 


 


P16 is indeed the one, Brian- a June UK temperature record in there:


http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gefs/16_246_2mtmpmax.png?cb=697


Not the form horse, of course.


 



Not the form horse as you say. However I think it would possibly lead to an all time record and even a low chance of 40C.


Brian Gaze
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LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
20 June 2017 00:43:23

Some particular weather events to take note of right now.


North NW Atlantic East and N Norwegian Sea NE Europe, East SE and NE Gulf of Mexico, Eastern USA SE USA, NW USA, Spain, Southern and Eastern Punjab in Pakistan, East and NE SE India, SW Japan, West N and N Central and NE Pacific East NE off Caracas, NW Azores, NW Bay of Biscay and West NW UK, UK Norway Scandinavia Finland NE and NW Europe, the Indus Valley, Punjab Pakistan, the Karakoram and Himalaya Bangladesh, Thailand and Burma SW S Bangladesh and Assam of NE India.


Looked at the Satellite Map and UKMO and the Satellite and Rainfall radars, we are not going to stay dry and hot for too long now. And I had a check of the Bracknell fax charts as well, and looked what is the Indian Monsoon doing.


I can clearly say that there are on increasing regularity and are predicted and tracking along the Gyrating Low Pressure belts recurving Low's and the signal says there is much rain and Low Pressure being reported and recorded and the UKMO is picking this signal up very well indeed, the ECMWF and GFS models have been in opposition with each other then the UKMO and ECMWF take us in the UK along with the areas mention they are right now seeing areas of Thundery storms and some developing Atlantic Tropical Storms two of them of which one is given a name it is approaching the SE off the Southeast Caribbean Islands ENE of Caracas by 300 miles. There is more chance of cool NW winds for the UK with rain bearing frontal Low's Pressure systems cross Ireland N England and Scotland to NE UK N and NE England while even South and SE UK should see more cloudy weather after Wednesday's area of hot and sunny 32 deg C S and SE UK Thurs- Fri- Sat- and Sunday looks packed with West and NW flow bring cool and wetter weather for much of UK (GB).


Today 19th June, and early part of June 20- maybe take a look at the climate re analyzer website and look at how the weather across the Northern Hemisphere is currently enriched with rain packed areas of wind and rain lol!.😆😎⛈☀️🌦🌧🌊☔️🌜.


Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
bledur
20 June 2017 07:55:59

Looking far more generally unsettled in a weeks time,.


moomin75
20 June 2017 08:27:03
There is no doubt that the models have trended considerably more unsettled. Anyone who thinks otherwise is in denial, which I can never understand. There is nothing in the models currently to suggest a return to summery weather after this week and it could be some time before we see anything similar.
However, I think the absolute limit of accuracy is perhaps a week at best, so I think we could well be seeing altogether different charts a week from now. The heat to our South is immense this year and I will be very surprised if this has been our summer.
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
lazy farmer
20 June 2017 08:44:35

hi, first time poster but long time lurker.


Just an observation really I have read this thread for yrs and found it invaluable for planning future operations on the farm.but of late the lack of tolerance of others opinions has saddened me. There is room for everybody on here just because posters  disagree doesn't give them the right to try and bully others off the thread. I have no particular axe to grind in my job we just have to adapt to what every mother natures gives us but just as an example Jires your last post  was  without justification and does nothing to further the debate where was your rebutting evidence ?

some faraway beach
20 June 2017 09:13:23

It has to be said, the 00z GFS ensemble is in the damp-and-below-average-temperatures camp once July starts. Quite firmly so, considering the scatter you usually see at that range. (Posted the Cardiff diagram, 'cos that's nearest where I live.)



2 miles west of Taunton, 32 m asl, where "milder air moving in from the west" becomes SNOWMAGEDDON.
Well, two or three times a decade it does, anyway.
bledur
20 June 2017 10:00:44

Well i am off baling hay as i ignored the forecast of thundery rain for Tuesday although i dont think the forecast 5 days out was that innaccurate other than the rain over Biscay head more towards the N.W rather than S.W on Wednesday and the final outcome come Friday will be a cold front lowering the temps and bringing in a showery westerly pattern which is what they said only maybe 24-36 hrs later.

moomin75
20 June 2017 11:09:55

I fear and hope I am wrong that the consistency of the GFS lately suggests that a protracted unsettled and yes, quite cool period will soon be upon us. The GFS has this low influencing our weather for much of the next 2 weeks once it sets in. You certainly wouldn't bet again it. 15c and rain in late June-early July will soon take the gloss off this current hot spell.


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Ally Pally Snowman
20 June 2017 16:37:58

You have to laugh at the output at the moment it's all over the place. Ukmo now has high pressure building in day 6. And only unsettled for the North.


 


http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.html


 


GFS still goes full blown crapfest though.


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moomin75
20 June 2017 16:59:05

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


You have to laugh at the output at the moment it's all over the place. Ukmo now has high pressure building in day 6. And only unsettled for the North.


 


http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.html


 


GFS still goes full blown crapfest though.


Well the only model that has shown any consistency in the last 2 or 3 days is GFS so one has to side with that at the moment. The other models are, as you say, all over the place. I'd be inclined to go with the model that is showing consistency and YES has shown a changeable spell ahead for several days now.


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Solar Cycles
20 June 2017 17:23:19

Originally Posted by: moomin75 


Well the only model that has shown any consistency in the last 2 or 3 days is GFS so one has to side with that at the moment. The other models are, as you say, all over the place. I'd be inclined to go with the model that is showing consistency and YES has shown a changeable spell ahead for several days now.


The much lambasted GFS was head and shoulders above the Euos last winter IMO, whatever inputs it's had it seems to cope much better at homing in on patterns for this part of the world than it previously could muster. Looking at the models overall I'd say a return to less settled, cooler conditions are the form horse for most of the UK.

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