I see even southerners or at least those that are from what could be classed as the south talking about a 'return' to summer like temperatures, and this has me miffed!

We've had three consecutive days now of summer temperatures, and (at least for here) the coming 7 days are also expected to bring summer temperatures.

Do people think that summer temperatures have to be in the high 20's low 30's or something to be classed as summer temperatures down here??

Yes: we've got used to European holidays and adjusted our perception of what summer means. For me it's all about sunshine though: today was only 23C but felt very summery because of the strong sunshine. More of this please.

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Yes: we've got used to European holidays and adjusted our perception of what summer means. For me it's all about sunshine though: today was only 23C but felt very summery because of the strong sunshine. More of this please.

Exactly 👍🏼 

With the exceptions to a few lucky spots that have been warmer, it would be reasonable enough to say general temps across the south & southeast over past few days of 21-24C are summer like.

Another one to chuck in the bin with coldweatherfan or whatever he called himself....

Im not sure where people are reading it needs to be in the 30s to be summer either. Don't recall reading that. 

Today has been very warm here. I'm burnt again and the coming week looks very usable here again. Mind you the last week was too. That's despite now banned user claiming it would rain all week. 

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The models generally show a West or north-west flow up to mid-July with Lows to the north-west and the Azores high exerting a weak influence at times across the south. Up here that's not great news, still no sign of any warm summery weather. Bands of rain or showers with sunny spells and around 17 maybe 18 C at best.

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The models generally show a West or north-west flow up to mid-July with Lows to the north-west and the Azores high exerting a weak influence at times across the south. Up here that's not great news, still no sign of any warm summery weather. Bands of rain or showers with sunny spells and around 17 maybe 18 C at best.

Yes the pattern of recent days/week looks to be continuing - which is good news for southern parts and less good for northern ones.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html 

On the plus side Carol has just stated (re the north) "it won't be raining all the time though" 

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Yes the pattern of recent days/week looks to be continuing - which is good news for southern parts and less good for northern ones.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html 

On the plus side Carol has just stated (re the north) "it won't be raining all the time though" 

That sounds like a typical Carol Kirkwood phrase to me.

 

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Yes the pattern of recent days/week looks to be continuing - which is good news for southern parts and less good for northern ones.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html 

On the plus side Carol has just stated (re the north) "it won't be raining all the time though" 

All eyes are on mid-July onwards for me. The MetO have said consistently in their medium range forecasts for the last fortnight or so that they expect a more general improvement in most parts of the country around then. Although they are not certain of this by any means, whatever signal they for this they have been seeing must have been there consistently Fingers crossed!

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I will be staying for a few days with my parents down in Hawick (which is in the Scottish Borders) at some point just after the midway point in this month and one of the reasons why I chose that particular period is because the medium term models have been hinting at some better weather from around that time onwards for quite some time now. I can only therefore hope that the actual weather doesn't then end up letting me down once that time comes.

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06z GFS serves up a 1995-style corker.

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06z GFS serves up a 1995-style corker.

With potentially an August 2003 corker thrown in for good measure. The 20c isotherm across the U.K. Temps probably hitting mid to high 30s !!!

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2522.gif

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I notice the 06z brings in some heat around the the T240 mark and quite a few other ensemble members show some more hot weather too.

If you like storms P11: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSP11EU06_246_2.png BOOM

If you want to see some records being threatened P17: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSP17EU06_276_2.png SCHORCHIO

Still quite a long time away but will it become an emerging pattern in subsequent runs?

 

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Much different in the long term on the 12z but an upgrade for Thursday, uppers are slightly warmer which should help the storms develop. The breakdown of this warm spell will begin with a shallow thundery low developing over the Bay of Biscay and it looks good for storm chances in Southern England during the evening.

I have only seen two distant thunderstorms this year in Southampton but I think Thursday represents my best chance of the Summer so far. 

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Thomas Schafernacher talking about "Thundery Thursday" on tonight's forecast so the Met Office must be expecting some beefy showers in the offing. 

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A rather better GFS 12z op run for the UK generally.

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I think the models will change again quite markedly, and in the short term. There's a lot of meandering at the moment.

I'm just sad really that yesterday's 06z GFS run didn't come to fruition. Would have been yuge.

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I think the models will change again quite markedly, and in the short term. There's a lot of meandering at the moment.

I'm just sad really that yesterday's 06z GFS run didn't come to fruition. Would have been yuge.

I have never been one to put a huge amount of faith in the GFS 06z runs, any more than I trust their 18z "pub run" counterparts.

AFAIK, the GFS op runs that normally verify the best are the 00z and 12z runs, with the 00z slightly ahead of the 12z when it comes to accuracy.

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Indeed shocking ecm tonight . It's all very frustrating as there is so much heat to our near south we just need the Azores high to build in but it seems incapable of doing so at the moment. 

 

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Indeed shocking ecm tonight . It's all very frustrating as there is so much heat to our near south we just need the Azores high to build in but it seems incapable of doing so at the moment. 

 

I guess, that's just standard fayre for a typical British summer, esecially at this end of the UK.

 

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I guess, that's just standard fayre for a typical British summer, esecially at this end of the UK.

 

 

Indeed and my fear is the poor weather the north has suffered recently is only heading one way and that's south. Just hoping the ecm is very wrong tonight. It's been a good summer here so far. A few more days of heat then the outlook looks decidedly iffy.

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We've had this every week summer's over bla bla bla then wo its warm again and everyone's happy again lol