I agree with Tim S, the 12z GFS for next week looks very good sunny and quite warm, later by Friday and the weekend after it could be even warmer.  But at T144 the UKMO and GFS are different, now GFS supports warm High Pressure of the Azores Type. More runs needed at the moment.

Spooky: I just looked at the 12z GFS run and I'm telling you, it's almost identical to the evolution in late June 1995. Uncanny.
I'm making no representation about pattern matching or this being meaningful, just that the charts look so similar.

I'd gladly take a repeat of late June 1995 and the weather that went on to dominate the rest of that summer. People at the time compared it to 1976, and it's certainly the best overall summer I can recall in my neck of the woods.

 

I'd gladly take a repeat of late June 1995 and the weather that went on to dominate the rest of that summer. People at the time compared it to 1976, and it's certainly the best overall summer I can recall in my neck of the woods.

June 1995 was definitely very poor for the first half, but on the final day of the month we reached 30C. The rest of that summer is history. 

Looking warmer as we move through next week

Well, it looks clearer to me that on the UKMO and GFS 12z run today, is Low Pressure across the UK in a big way for 11th and 12th June, and the South and SE on Saturday see some very warm weather briefly on that day, plus later Friday as well.

On this Friday it improves though with some cloudy conditions, and looking to 13th to 15th June next week is fine and warm with increased amount of sunny weather and an area of High pressure in charge over the UK.

If you actually look at the models Whitewalker is right High pressure builds in from the Azores next week so dry warm and settled weather spreading north .

GFS top ECM bottom UKMO middle.  ECM the least favourable out to 5 days.  Far south looks to be OK, things deteriorate as the latitude increases. GFS/UKMO a fairer solution.

Imby it is looking fine settled and warm. Maybe turning hot latter next week.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2017060912/ECM0-192.GIF?09-0 

In the South and East at this time of year away from the coast. If it is not raining it's going to be warm regardless of the weather pattern.

A North South split between Low in North and High over the South and Southwest UK with normal temperatures for all on Monday,

Tuesday has many of us seeing High Pressure and not uncomfortably warm, and more chance of sunshine.

For Wednesday next week The Low Pressure over the West and N UK bring some heavy or Moderate rain at times and strong winds, Pressure higher in South and SE where though increasing cloud with chance of showers in Wales and N England, drier further S and SE.

Cool NW winds on Thursday with chance of showers and cool conditions, but dry and less cool the further SW in UK you are, but a cloudier and cooler day than day before with Cool NW breezes or winds.

The GFS and UKMO seem very confident of this outlook with ECMWF more drier with more spread out High P. at same time.

So therefore we have to wait until we get to Friday to Sunday 16-18th June to see UK bound High Pressure with much sunnier and warmer conditions shown by GFS and UKMO, with ECMWF also on the same brigade.

There seems to be an increasing signal in the GFS Op for a regression of the high westwards sometime after next weekend, allowing cooler northerlies and sub-5 uppers to settle over the UK. It's a long way off, but I think this is the latest of several runs and I notice the ENS are starting to polarise more towards this outcome. Any thoughts? Quick snap of summer again followed by the usual plot, or a GFS flash in the pan?

Suspect I won't have a lot of company with this but I do like seeing a set of ens suggesting no overly hot weather. As you'd expect for my neck of the woods in June it's pleasant and fairly warm but without any really high temps which would make sleeping troublesome. Whilst I like 19-21c weather anything above this is not my cup of tea so the prospect of getting mostly through the first summer month without too much in the way of hot oppressive weather is very welcome 

The ens also paint a mostly dry picture down here, although more unsettled further North. 

On the we might get a Northerly front - we might but as with winter the models will almost always over play a signal at longer range. Whether this is for unseasonal heat, cold, wet etc. the models always seem to have too clean an evolution and things are watered down nearer the day. Northerlies in summer can also result in some very warm (and thundery) stuff for the South too, which rarely gets shown in the models at first.

If you are one of those weirdos that likes it hot I'd wait for a while before taking the FI charts too seriously

Eastern Europe having a remarkably persistent spell of below average temps

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html

That cold patch has been there for weeks

Tuesday week , 9am:

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gem/213_uk2mtmp.png?cb=639

31C... among the highest 9am temperatures in the record.

GEM.

Eastern Europe having a remarkably persistent spell of below average temps

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html

That cold patch has been there for weeks

While we've been doing very nicely...

While we suffered summer-wise they've done well (in the period 2007-2012).  Its time the tables were turned, so this should continue awhile.