ECM increases the persistence of the HP compared to its previous few runs. Could it actually be the model playing catch-up to GFS for a change? Looks impressive for the SW on Thursday with the highest temps in this region which is different to the tendency of many recent summers.
As for Friday, well...
Given the run-up of often very warm and dry conditions, light winds and only gradual destabilisation, I daresay that'd have the hottest spots pushing close to the mid-30s.
We do then finally see the breakdown overnight into Saturday with a fresher, showery sort of day to follow. Sunday sees things improving in the south but remaining dodgy up north... too far ahead to pay much notice to at this time though. It gets there via extensive blocking across the Arctic including Greenland, but ECM's been having a thing for that on and off for a good few weeks now without success. I reckon as long as global atmospheric angular momentum (GLAAM) doesn't fall as much as GEFS has been predicting (usually a safe bet), things shouldn't deteriorate too much in the 10-16 day range (a big GLAAM fall encourages the Azores High to ridge N rather than NE, with a trough dropping in across the UK and surrounds. No surprise to see GFS doing just that at the moment but in theory it's a load of dog doings!).
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