To shift away from some of the autumnal posts, I'm surprised the UKMO hasn't got a mention. It looks completely different from the GFS after 72h and at a glance, a bit warmer!

At T96 the UK is stuck underneath a Col with perhaps high pressure beginning to build to our North.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMOPEU12_120_1.png

Anything could happen from here and the heat isn't too far away....

I think the reason why it is so different is because it doesn't develop that low on Monday as much, a plausible outcome I think.

To shift away from some of the 'autumnal' posts, I'm surprised the UKMO hasn't got a mention. It looks completely different from the GFS after 72h and at a glance, pretty warm!

At T96 the UK is stuck underneath a Col with perhaps high pressure beginning to build to our North.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMOPEU12_120_1.png

Anything could happen from here and the heat isn't too far away....

My post is based on some of the actual output. 

While the UKMO is definitely better at that time point and is more settledthan the GFS the GFS has been consistent about the low pressure dominating the UK's weather. Perhaps autumnal is a bit harsh but I guess a milder version of autumn would be more appropriate for many northern parts? (For example the Met Office mention the risk of wintriness at Munro level over the weekend).

Saying it's not so sadly doesn't make it go away. For what it's worth I'm not convinced that the cooler more unsettled conditions will (a) last for a prolonged period of time or (b) be that noticeable for more southern parts, especially in periods of lighter wind and sunshine. 

 

My post is based on some of the actual output. 

While the UKMO is definitely better at that time point and is more settledthan the GFS the GFS has been consistent about the low pressure dominating the UK's weather. Perhaps autumnal is a bit harsh but I guess a milder version of autumn would be more appropriate for many northern parts? (For example the Met Office mention the risk of wintriness at Munro level over the weekend).

Saying it's not so sadly doesn't make it go away. For what it's worth I'm not convinced that the cooler more unsettled conditions will (a) last for a prolonged period of time or (b) be that noticeable for more southern parts, especially in periods of lighter wind and sunshine. 

Yup the GFS would be pretty poor for late June and to be fair it does tie in with the ECM somewhat from this morning. I think part of me thinks it will be watered down is because:

- We have a very slack atmospheric circulation pattern which will lead to large uncertainty over a small timescale. I think the GFS may be overestimating the extent of low pressure over our shores (although SST's to our immediate SW are about 3C above average so perhaps not?)

- I remember early last week the output kept suggesting a cool anticyclonic northerly which didn't materialise and then we had high pressure building over Scandi/ to our east again to give the South at least more warmth. It would surprise me if we reverted to cooler weather types now all of a sudden after a long period of warmth.

I may be wrong but small changes to the UKMO and a different picture could emergy once again.

Evening GEFS update appears to follow this morning's 00z suite. 

 

Yup the GFS would be pretty poor for late June and to be fair it does tie in with the ECM somewhat from this morning. I think part of me thinks it will be watered down is because:

- We have a very slack atmospheric circulation pattern which will lead to large uncertainty over a small timescale. I think the GFS may be overestimating the extent of low pressure over our shores (although SST's to our immediate SW are about 3C above average so perhaps not?)

- I remember early last week the output kept suggesting a cool anticyclonic northerly which didn't materialise and then we had high pressure building over Scandi/ to our east again to give the South at least more warmth. It would surprise me if we reverted to cooler weather types now all of a sudden after a long period of warmth.

I may be wrong but small changes to the UKMO and a different picture could emergy once again.

I think you are right Jonny. Your logic certainly is.

Fingers crossed as the GFS is depressing me  A gradual shift away from the cooler cyclonic conditions to something much warmer in the medium term would really not surprise me. Hopefully hints of this might be evident in the later stages of tonight's ECM.

To shift away from some of the autumnal posts, I'm surprised the UKMO hasn't got a mention. It looks completely different from the GFS after 72h and at a glance, a bit warmer!

At T96 the UK is stuck underneath a Col with perhaps high pressure beginning to build to our North.

 

Hey, I'm not that fat!!

At the moment the weather outlook if you believe the latest UKMO 12z run updated charts, then most of us it looks cool and wet with Low Pressure over Northern UK, while Southern UK is expected to be pleasantly warm with mixture of cloudiness and some sunny spells as well, the UKMO looks fine for Monday the 26th as well and also for Tuesday 27th June and for Tuesday today's GFS and ECMWF still have that wild looking Low Pressure, on the 12z GFS it has indeed reduced chance of coolness with warmer Thundery showers being more likely on Tuesday and Wednesday.  This the UKMO has not supported today but in yesterday's 12z run it looked like today's 12z GFS with trof's forming for the 27-28th June.

Next few days this prediction is still can show further divergence from previous GFS and EMWF predictions they showed the extreme deep Low Pressure for said period and the GFS is just today starting to side towards the UKMO less cool solution with trof's and mild sector's showing they can reduce the potency of this Low Pressure, next few days they will pick up more sensible outputs.

Evening GEFS update appears to follow this morning's 00z suite. 

A little dip, then a rise, followed by more extended dip, and then a much bigger rise...

I'm reckoning that either that bigger rise will extend or the deeper dip will decrease.

Well on the cool side of the jetstream by the middle of next week

is the jet stream likely to remain well south of the British Isles for a prolonged period thereby keeping an extended cooler spell or could this be interpreted as a temporary blip?

 Like any forecast, beyond 5-6 days becomes uncertain, but most forecasts give the more changeable weather going on into July That chart of the jetstream could at best just keep it cool and showery or at worst some fairly active for the time of year low pressure systems causing more general wind and rain.

Ok I'll concede defeat now, it looks as though we will have a very unsettled end to June, it looks as though a low pressure system will form over the UK and deliver some cool weather.

Could be quite blustery at times too as the low pressure moves east and intensifies as it bumps into the hot air over the continent. Its uncertain as to whether this will be a prolonged cooler spell however.

Even the best Summers have their blips 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/archive/1976/noaa/NOAA_1_1976073100_1.gif

Ok I'll concede defeat now, it looks as though we will have a very unsettled end to June, it looks as though a low pressure system will form over the UK and deliver some cool weather.

Could be quite blustery at times too as the low pressure moves east and intensifies as it bumps into the hot air over the continent. Its uncertain as to whether this will be a prolonged cooler spell however.

Even the best Summers however, have their blips 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/archive/1976/noaa/NOAA_1_1976073100_1.gif

 

Indeed. The midday GEFS update isn't conclusive either. IMO there continue to be signs of an improvement as we head through the first week of July.

Ok I'll concede defeat now, it looks as though we will have a very unsettled end to June, it looks as though a low pressure system will form over the UK and deliver some cool weather.

Could be quite blustery at times too as the low pressure moves east and intensifies as it bumps into the hot air over the continent. Its uncertain as to whether this will be a prolonged cooler spell however.

Even the best Summers have their blips 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/archive/1976/noaa/NOAA_1_1976073100_1.gif

 

yes i made this point yesterday 1976 had some cooler spells in fact barring the first week it was quite unsettled and didnt really improve until the end of july with august being hot and sunny so there is hope yet.

the models are showing cool unsettled conditions for about 10 days but a lot can change and quickly.

Every summer is a mix of good (HP dominated) and bad weather. What makes a "good summer" is that the warm, settled spells outnumber the unsettled spells. And the more heavily they outweigh the bad spells determines how much it sticks in our memory as an exceptional summer.

Every summer is a mix of good (HP dominated) and bad weather. What makes a "good summer" is that the warm, settled spells outnumber the unsettled spells. And the more heavily they outweigh the bad spells determines how much it sticks in our memory as an exceptional summer.

Looks more average than cool to me and occasionally warm in the south. Plume storms possible later Monday/Tuesday

Every summer is a mix of good (HP dominated) and bad weather. What makes a "good summer" is that the warm, settled spells outnumber the unsettled spells. And the more heavily they outweigh the bad spells determines how much it sticks in our memory as an exceptional summer.

I think the nature, length & timing of warm, settled spells plays a big part, too.

If the whole of June & first two-thirds of July was a washout, but then late July & August was great with universally sunny, dry & warm days, then most of the summer would have been rubbish but most people would consider it a fantastic summer.

1) It happening all at once so people can plan days out/parties/BBQ's/breaks with some confidence

2) Taking place during the kids' school holidays

3) the longer great summer spells last, the more people remember them

Lots of scatter on the ECM 2-metre temperature ensemble as early as Tuesday, with forecast maximum temps ranging from 15C to 26C. With that degree of uncertainty that soon, who knows how July might turn out?