The GFS continues to pump in the heat from Tuesday.

32-33c (90-91f) quite probable by midweek in the south.

A chance of a glancing thundery blow too for a time before the high settles back, the heat stagnates in its inversion under a strong mid July sun and we import low level fierce heat from a furnace like near continent.

Im hard now. 

12z op is stunning. 

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Im hard now. 

12z op is stunning. 

I'm going to take a look.  I'll be back in 5 minutes.

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I'm going to take a look.  I'll be back in 5 minutes.

Take some tissues with you

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I can affirm the 12z is suitably stimulating from a settled and warm perspective, particularly for the south.  It will be interesting to see how temperatures respond to the baked earth (notwithstanding today's rain) and I suspect that under clear skies and light winds we will readily be seeing temperatures around 3 to 5 degrees above these Wednesday predictions from the hi res GFS 12z:

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Take some tissues with you

pmsl 

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UKMO looks pretty decent too. Maybe some settled weather in the NW Mids from that.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMOPEU12_144_1.png 

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Take some tissues with you

And I thought I have trouble with dew points.

Indeed, it does look like we are looking at a protracted spell of proper actual Summer-like weather - and that's after a half decent weekend in it's own right. While I'm not keen on the muggy nights as always, I will try my best to enjoy the sultry hot sunny days like actual normal people.  

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And GEM (which has actually been verifying slightly ahead of GFS on the 12z NH SLP in the mid- to longer range) turns up the heat and storm threat:
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GEMOPEU12_156_2.png 

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Am I alone then in being disappointed by the charts?

And the maxima on GFS: low to mid 20s in the South, lower further North, for the weekend and much of next week. We did much better in June.

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Am I alone then in being disappointed by the charts?

And the maxima on GFS: low to mid 20s in the South, lower further North, for the weekend and much of next week. We did much better in June.

GFS maximum temperatures are notoriously crap - you can usually add a couple of degrees at least onto its values. 

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ECM matches pretty well to the other 12zs at t+144
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_144_2.png 

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GFS maximum temperatures are notoriously crap - you can usually add a couple of degrees at least onto its values. 

Agreed. And in the current setup probably 5C or more.

Here is the ARPEGE temperature chart for Sunday afternoon. 29C in Central London.

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpege/arpegeuk-41-99-0.png?12-19

GFS goes for 22C in London. Highest of 23C in Norfolk.

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2017071212/102-582UK.GIF?12-12

Don't pay any attention to the GFS temperature figures. They are useless.

Am I alone then in being disappointed by the charts?

And the maxima on GFS: low to mid 20s in the South, lower further North, for the weekend and much of next week. We did much better in June.

 

I know what you mean we are 200 miles from record breaking temps. Still low 30s though.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1682.html

 

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Cloud is key here. In sunny weather we beat GFS maxes by 3C or so. Under cloud we tend to hit them on the nail.

We also beat GFS maxes more in early summer than late summer / Autumn. I think the model underestimates the power of intense insolation.

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Indeed, it does look like we are looking at a protracted spell of proper actual Summer-like weather - and that's after a half decent weekend in it's own right. While I'm not keen on the muggy nights as always, I will try my best to enjoy the sultry hot sunny days like actual normal people.  

 

I take it you've purged your mind of memories of tomato farms?

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The positive sign is (if you like the settled conditions) most models are in broadly similar agreement out to t+144. I mentioned a month ago how I wasn't a fan of recycled prognoses in terms of patterns repeating, but it has been apparent that the jet moving south and then wandering north with a split in the mid-Atlantic to allow troughing to our SW has been a theme repeating over 14 days so far this summer. If current NWP is to be believed we may be rebooting the scenario again.

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GFS maximum temperatures are notoriously crap - you can usually add a couple of degrees at least onto its values. 

I don't think prognosed temps by models in general are aiming to be spot on accurate, but more as a rough guide as to what to expect. For the record though, I often find that the GFS is more closer the mark regarding maxima/minima in the short-medium term than the ECMWF for my region, which, in my opinion, underestimates both more so than the former.

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Oh dear. GFS 18z has this for about 9 days time:

http://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20170712/18/222/hgt500-1000.png

This low is shown as arriving next Wednesday. Urgh!

A quick glance at the other models and they don't look as bad, but I hope this isn't a sign of the heatwave idea being dropped.

Yes. A bit of a change this morning. The thundery low moving up from Biscay appears to (at least for a time) join forces with the Icelandic low cutting off the real heat after midweek.

The likely outcome is that the Azores High will ridge in soon after but as things stand this morning words like furnace, fierce, continental feed and other hot weather porn related words are being put on hold. 

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My first thoughts when looking at ECM was great! The high pressure is slipping east allowing a very hot flow of air. But as the frames roll on that clearly puts us in harms way with low pressure moving in from the west. 

I'd rather have HP slap bang over the UK giving a proper settled spell. 

Still time for a change back. 

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