Common sense model Matty 😉 this is "almost as hot as it gets in the UK" so common sense suggests it's unlikely to be bettered this year (although not impossible I grant you). A virtual 🍺🍺 says this will be the peak of the heat this summer.

Back to the models the UKMO still provides hope that I won't be needing my Ark next week, as it's nowhere as unsettled as the GFS. Time, as ever, will tell.

Sorry, I was just trying to understand which model you were using (your words). I've now clarified there wasn't one. Thanks for updating :)

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What I'm looking for now is the reset. I think some form of trough next week is almost inevitable, so the question is what will the next pattern change look like, and how long will this forecast unsettled spell last.

If the latest edition of EC45 is to go by, then you'll be a while waiting for the next reset. But, its only one model, and like them all, is subject to change.

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There does seem to be a consensus that we get a slow moving depression over us for at least 3-4 days from Tuesday onwards. Shows up in GEM too, and previous ECMs, UKMO hints at it at 144hrs.

That in itself isn't the end of the world. It will be showery and cool but not that bad. The issue is what happens when it clears. GFS 12z tries to edge in a ridge but gets overrun by depressions. How quickly the trough leaves us, how much rain it dumps, and what comes next, will determine whether this is a summer of 3 hot dry months or at best a mixed one.

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There does seem to be a consensus that we get a slow moving depression over us for at least 3-4 days from Tuesday onwards. Shows up in GEM too, and previous ECMs, UKMO hints at it at 144hrs.

That in itself isn't the end of the world. It will be showery and cool but not that bad. The issue is what happens when it clears. GFS 12z tries to edge in a ridge but gets overrun by depressions. How quickly the trough leaves us, how much rain it dumps, and what comes next, will determine whether this is a summer of 3 hot dry months or at best a mixed one.

More likely it will be water down on this set-up as they shown LP over us this week and last weekend from the charts churned out but suddenly they watered down and brought the heatwave instead and no one expected today to be the hottest day or 5 days runs of over 30C temps.  At least it still in FI range so there time to water down again. 

Looks like everyone will get to enjoy our current taste of autumn over the next week or two. Rather unsettled sums it up.

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Is it me or are our summers becoming more extreme ?

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No more hyperbole from me. But there is almost no doubt we are entering a much more changeable phase and looks like setting in for perhaps a week to ten days. The charts do look a little "Autumnal" and it will be cool in any showers which appear to be quite prevalent on GFS and ECM. UKMO looks a little better and there is much heat to our south to tap into. I think we likely will, but not for a week or two. In the meantime, cooler and much more unsettled does sum it up. At least that'll allow the heat to seap out of the house in readiness for the next warm spell.
I have actually said previously I fancy a warmer and drier summer overall but the next couple of weeks are going to be disappointing. Sometimes these patterns get locked in for weeks on end, but I actually don't think that'll be the case.....just think it'll take patience for the next reload.

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Last warning. 

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http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html 

Still, it's early days and I'd be surprised if the last few days are the only hot spell this summer!

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http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html 

Still, it's early days and I'd be surprised if the last few days are the only hot spell this summer!

Model reliability is less good in summer so I treat anything with greater suspicion than normal. A west or NW flow as could arrive next week still allows for reasonable weather in the SE providing pressure is not too low. 

The recent hot spell has been quite unusual given how early in summer it arrived although I have no idea what will happen further out.

Fww, I put my money on a warm summer so we'll see ;)

 

Model reliability is less good in summer so I treat anything with greater suspicion than normal. A west or NW flow as could arrive next week still allows for reasonable weather in the SE providing pressure is not too low. 

The recent hot spell has been quite unusual given how early in summer it arrived although I have no idea what will happen further out.

Fww, I put my money on a warm summer so we'll see ;)

Genuine question and not meant as a wind up - do you have stats that back up this hypothesis? I always thought or got the impression that model volatility was higher in the winter months though nothing to back this up. I have never seen any verification stats for models summer or winter. 

FWIW I also think overall the summer will end up pretty memorable.

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Genuine question and not meant as a wind up - do you have stats that back up this hypothesis? I always thought or got the impression that model volatility was higher in the winter months though nothing to back this up. I have never seen any verification stats for models summer or winter. 

FWIW I also think overall the summer will end up pretty memorable.

I have this on good authority from friends in the Met Office and Private Weather Companies. I think the rationale is that the jet is more predictable in winter whereas in summer you often get a slack regime that can easily swing in a different direction.

Overnight GEFS has trended warmer and drier during the first week of July. Too early to call #blowtorch but worth watching in the next few days.

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Yes Brian and that how it picked up this current heatwave we got already.  I don't expect very high temps again but I think the models will back track the unsettled weather and probably next few runs will carry on and we end up more warm weather around since the continent still hot and hard to shift it away.

The GEFS just looks to me like reversion to the mean. Whoever there is a cold or warm spell the long term ensemble always shows some kind of reversion to the mean.

I'm going to go into model watching hibernation for a few days I think. Then start a summer is over thread 😉

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The second (less significant but usual) wave of the the European June monsoon is due in the last week of June. All relatively normal. I'm expecting the settled conditions and warmth to return in early July.

FWIW next weeks cool and cyclonic looking setup is a recipe for tasty convection and afternoon thunderstorms but with cooler nights for sleeping.

 

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Next off topic or trolling comment will result in account deletion. If I've not deleted 3 accounts by the end of today I'll be surprised.

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What is pretty certain going by the latest output is that the weather is likely to be a good deal cooler as well as more changeable as we head into next week than has been the case generally over the past week or so. The heatwave that ended last night never quite made it up to the north of Scotland although parts of southern, central and eastern Scotland did not badly last weekend and at the start of this week.

Beyond next week, who knows, but what I think is quite clear now is that for some of the country at least, June has been a somewhat better month for weather than was being predicted by some here a fortnight or so back. The models are also at times hinting of it possibly becoming more settled again as we head into July, so it's all to play for as far as I'm concerned.

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http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_63_1.png 

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The second (less significant but usual) wave of the the European June monsoon is due in the last week of June. All relatively normal. I'm expecting the settled conditions and warmth to return in early July.

FWIW next weeks cool and cyclonic looking setup is a recipe for tasty convection and afternoon thunderstorms but with cooler nights for sleeping.

 

Yes Steve, next week could be interesting for convective fans after a let down from last night in terms of storms,  or lack of.

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