moomin75
Tuesday, July 11, 2017 11:37:57 PM

Originally Posted by: Matty H 


 


 


whats even better is you were constantly writing it off several weeks back. Your track record remains consistent through winter and summer at least  


Astonishing output really given the incredible weather we've already had this summer. I cannot get enough of this. 


A bit harsh Matty. I didn't write the summer off. I was commenting on some poor charts but as you have said many times Lrfs are pretty futile.


This is a cracker of a summer so far and I think the same as you about our preferences.


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
TimS
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Wednesday, July 12, 2017 6:14:57 AM

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


 


Looks more like early August 1995 to me. I'll need to delve back into the WZ archive charts for that time to be sure, but from what I remember from looking at them in the past, the set-up back then (Azores High connecting with one over Scandi) is very similar to what is being suggested for next week.



Yes, the week at end of July / start of August, when we managed 35C in Cambridgshire.


One of my favourite country file week ahead forecasts that Sunday, from Michael Fish: "well if you don't like hot weather you're not going to like this week". Almost up there with McCaskill's "a grim week" in Feb 1991 for misjudging the mood of the nation's weather lovers.


 


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
speckledjim
Wednesday, July 12, 2017 6:53:46 AM
As welcome as the rain was over the last couple of days I'm pleased that we're back to the Summer that most of us have been experiencing i.e. dry and warm. Even Scotland and Leek, Staffordshire doesn't look too bad over the coming days and perhaps we'll all tap into some of the hot weather that potentially may be in the offing.
Thorner, West Yorkshire


Journalism is organised gossip
Saint Snow
Wednesday, July 12, 2017 8:14:07 AM

Originally Posted by: speckledjim 

As welcome as the rain was over the last couple of days I'm pleased that we're back to the Summer that most of us have been experiencing i.e. dry and warm. Even Scotland and Leek, Staffordshire doesn't look too bad over the coming days and perhaps we'll all tap into some of the hot weather that potentially may be in the offing.


 


Despite some cheery posts by me recently, I've got to say that in NW England we're about to enter one of those spells where we're more under the influence of the crap from the north than the summer of the south. After today, we're looking at spells of showers/light rain overnight Thur into Fri, then again for much of Sat morning into afternoon, then once more on Sat night.


Looks like bucking up after that, although without much in the way of heat.


 



Martin
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Sharp Green Fox
Wednesday, July 12, 2017 9:48:30 AM
This summer I have found the BBC to be very conservative (small c) in their weather predictions. For example on their app for my location last week they had every day, from 3rd day in, at 20 degrees and cloudy. Not reliable at all beyond 48 hours.
Brian Gaze
Wednesday, July 12, 2017 10:20:05 AM

Since issuing my warning a couple of weeks ago I've only been able to justify deleting one account. That's a very disappointing return for me. I'll be looking to delete more in the coming days so watch out! 


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Berkhamsted
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Russwirral
Wednesday, July 12, 2017 10:41:53 AM
Next week looks to have another warm up / heat up on the cards. This would make it the 5th or 6th plume of this year so far.

This summer continues to offer great weather.

So what if we get the odd rainy day like yesterday. Its great for the garden and for outdoor exercise.
Rob K
Wednesday, July 12, 2017 11:19:21 AM
GFS 06Z looking not quite so settled as the 00Z. Hopefully just a blip and not the start of a wobble.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Brian Gaze
Wednesday, July 12, 2017 12:09:40 PM

Nice bactrian pattern on the GEFS06z next week.



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TimS
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Wednesday, July 12, 2017 12:35:40 PM

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Nice bactrian pattern on the GEFS06z next week.




Looks like a W-E relief map of the Scottish highlands to me.


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Rob K
Wednesday, July 12, 2017 1:07:56 PM

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Nice bactrian pattern on the GEFS06z next week.




 


P16 turns up the heat nicely!


 



Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Hungry Tiger
Wednesday, July 12, 2017 1:26:28 PM

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


 


 


P16 turns up the heat nicely!


 





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South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


TimS
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Wednesday, July 12, 2017 1:48:16 PM
Where do you get those GEFS charts from? I'd like to know what P16 does for max temps in France, as I think P16 would bring record temperatures there.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
cultman1
Wednesday, July 12, 2017 1:52:35 PM
Bactrian ? Please can you kindly explain this weather term for me ? Thank you
Rob K
Wednesday, July 12, 2017 2:16:35 PM

Originally Posted by: cultman1 

Bactrian ? Please can you kindly explain this weather term for me ? Thank you


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bactrian_camel 


 


Tim S: go to the TWO charts page and then select GEFS and you can select each perturbation. Under "variable for run" at the left choose 2m max temp.


http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx


 


 


Doesn't look like TWO covers any more of France but Meteociel shows 36C+ widely over France even at 8pm local time!


 



 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Brian Gaze
Wednesday, July 12, 2017 4:26:10 PM

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


 


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bactrian_camel 


 


Tim S: go to the TWO charts page and then select GEFS and you can select each perturbation. Under "variable for run" at the left choose 2m max temp.


http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx


 


 


Doesn't look like TWO covers any more of France but Meteociel shows 36C+ widely over France even at 8pm local time!


 



 



 


The TWO 2m temp GEFS charts don't currently cover France.


PS: The new Chart viewer interface is easier to use IMO, but there's nothing wrong with using the old one you've linked above.


http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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Gusty
Wednesday, July 12, 2017 4:56:00 PM

The GFS continues to pump in the heat from Tuesday.


32-33c (90-91f) quite probable by midweek in the south.


A chance of a glancing thundery blow too for a time before the high settles back, the heat stagnates in its inversion under a strong mid July sun and we import low level fierce heat from a furnace like near continent.


Steve - Folkestone, Kent
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Joe Bloggs
Wednesday, July 12, 2017 5:10:45 PM

Originally Posted by: Gusty 


The GFS continues to pump in the heat from Tuesday.


32-33c (90-91f) quite probable by midweek in the south.


A chance of a glancing thundery blow too for a time before the high settles back, the heat stagnates in its inversion under a strong mid July sun and we import low level fierce heat from a furnace like near continent.



Actual weather porn. Thanks Steve. :) 



Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

Gusty
Wednesday, July 12, 2017 5:13:59 PM

Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs 


Actual weather porn. Thanks Steve. :) 




Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
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Brian Gaze
Wednesday, July 12, 2017 5:18:49 PM

Originally Posted by: Gusty 


The GFS continues to pump in the heat from Tuesday.


32-33c (90-91f) quite probable by midweek in the south.


A chance of a glancing thundery blow too for a time before the high settles back, the heat stagnates in its inversion under a strong mid July sun and we import low level fierce heat from a furnace like near continent.



 Off to take a look at the GFS12z now. Hope it doesn't disappoint after that build up.


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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