What we would probably need is for a heatwave to firstly get established, and secondly last for at least a week in duration for us to have the best shot at it. IIRC, the all-time record in August 2003 was set a week or so after that heatwave first commenced.

That said, 37C was recorded at the start of July 2015 somewhere in the south and that didn't turn out to be a prolonged hot spell. My recollection is that the hot spell broke a few days into July and then it never really recovered for the rest of that month.

But that wasn't the case when the July record went in 2015 ;)

 

I see we're starting to sniff out the potential on here - well I say that, Brian spotted the potential way back at the start at June in the TWO summer outlook. If a fine warm/hot later-July (and good part of August for top marks) does indeed come around I will be very impressed 😃

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I see we're starting to sniff out the potential on here - well I say that, Brian spotted the potential way back at the start at June in the TWO summer outlook. If a fine warm/hot later-July (and good part of August for top marks) does indeed come around I will be very impressed :D

We could sure do with a good August James, although I'm very much hoping hoping to see an improvement in my area rather sooner than that after what has been a pretty mediocre start to the summer here. We haven't really had that many, if any, especially good Augusts since that incredible first fortnight of August '03.

FWIW, I recall that the summer of 1990 had a poor June in my area and the weather remained so until around mid-July. But the middle weekend of that July saw a real transformation and that summer ended up giving us what was the hottest day on record in this country at the time at the start of August. (37.1C at Cheltenham on 3/8/1990 I think it was).

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850s around 16/17 July are now getting close to 12C. Nothing exceptional but possibly another fine snap crawling out of the woodwork. Seems to be happening a lot this summer. Would make for an interesting winter set-up -10C 850 incursion popped up frequently in Dec/Jan/Feb. 

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850s around 16/17 July are now getting close to 12C. Nothing exceptional but possibly another fine snap crawling out of the woodwork. Seems to be happening a lot this summer. Would make for an interesting winter set-up -10C 850 incursion popped up frequently in Dec/Jan/Feb. 

And yet the ECM has (not for the first time) done a complete about face again. Nothing approaching another hot spell on this morning's 0z. Shows the volatility of the models perfectly. Nothing past the next week is certain as per usual although the heat to our South does remain there and if tapped into (A big IF) there are some possibilities of another hot spell at months end as you said.

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All I can see on the charts is a weak Azores High and Lows across Scotland??? I was getting excited with the comments yesterday thinking summer was coming north!!

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All I can see on the charts is a weak Azores High and Lows across Scotland??? I was getting excited with the comments yesterday thinking summer was coming north!!

Don't know if you saw the ECM 12z op run from last night, but that is most certainly what it was indicating.

This morning's ECM is not so hot for us here, but I'm wondering if there is a slight degree of volativity in the models right right as there do appear to be some hints of a pattern change.

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Don't know if you saw the ECM 12z op run from last night, but that is most certainly what it was indicating.

This morning's ECM is not so hot for us here, but I'm wondering if there is a slight degree of volativity in the models right right as there do appear to be some hints of a pattern change.

A massive degree of volatility David. ECM has been flip flopping more than the other models this summer. I don't take much credence from ECM past 3-4 days. It's been unusually inconsistent for some time.

Uncertainty is the watch word.

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A massive degree of volatility David. ECM has been flip flopping more than the other models this summer. I don't take much credence from ECM past 3-4 days. It's been unusually inconsistent for some time.

Uncertainty is the watch word.

Yeah you're right there, Kieren. FWIW this morning's ECM op run seems to be rather more in keeping with what it was indicating in yesterday morning's run plus both runs from Saturday. GFS, unusually, seems to be going for a less unsettled outlook by day 10.

As ever, more runs are needed.

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The ecm means looks much better than the Op so I would expect an unsettled outlier . Very warm again by day 10 in the south

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1921.html

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2402.html

 

 

Gfs ensemble means look like a heatwave to me . Very warm high pressure close by to our east.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rz500m13.html

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rt850m14.html

 

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The ecm means looks much better than the Op so I would expect an unsettled outlier . Very warm again by day 10 in the south

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1921.html

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2402.html

 

 

Gfs ensemble means look like a heatwave to me . Very warm high pressure close by to our east.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rz500m13.html

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rt850m14.html

 

Looks damned good to me.

 

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This weeks written Monthly Outlook which is just been released on the BBC Weather website isn't looking so good for this part of the world, and that means that the omens are not looking so good now for my trip to the Scottish Borders later on this month, despite the models consistently pointing towards better weather coming up later on this month.

Even across the UK as a whole, that change to better weather is now delayed until the final week of the month (by which time, I will have returned home from that trip) and according to that forecast, this improvement still never quite manages to reach Scotland which means that the miserable summer which we have experienced up until now, looks set to continue for another month at least if that forecast is correct, whilst the south of England basks once again in that heatwave which is being predicted by the various models.

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This weeks written Monthly Outlook which is just been released on the BBC Weather website isn't looking so good for this part of the world, and that means that the omens are not looking so good now for my trip to the Scottish Borders later on this month, despite the models consistently pointing towards better weather coming up later on this month.

Even across the UK as a whole, that change to better weather is now delayed until the final week of the month (by which time, I will have returned home from that trip) and according to that forecast, this improvement still never quite manages to reach Scotland which means that the miserable summer which we have experienced up until now, looks set to continue for another month at least if that forecast is correct, whilst the south of England basks once again in that heatwave which is being predicted by the various models.

Best just to follow the models that we have access to and not to get too hooked up on what these monthly outlooks suggest, IMO.

In my experience, they are often of little use in terms of accuracy after the first week of the forecast.

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Best just to follow the models that we have access to and not to get too hooked up on what these monthly outlooks suggest, IMO.

In my experience, they are often of little use in terms of accuracy after the first week of the forecast.

I don't know if anyone else has spotted this as well in those Monthly Outlook forecasts, but I have found that the final weeks of those forecasts tend to mostly always default to a typical Atlantic-driven scenario with the best weather in SE England and with the most unsettled weather being in NW Britain in general (including here in Scotland) even during those periods where the current situation is nowhere like that, and even when during such periods, the models (the shorter term models at least) aren't suggesting anything like that sort of pattern.

 

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Tantalising set of runs this evening so far: GFS settled, then frigid, never hot. But good high pressure dominance.

UKMO tentative bit moving in right direction.

GEM looking decidedly good. ECM still to come.

Would it be an exaggeration to say that the next 2 days of model runs will determine how this summer is remembered?

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GFS was slow to roll out after about T+ 198; for the model that sticks its neck out to 384, that's a very unsure moment. Not convinced by the sudden eastward slip of the high in the last few days; it was so slow moving up until then.

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GFS was slow to roll out after about T+ 198; for the model that sticks its neck out to 384, that's a very unsure moment. Not convinced by the sudden eastward slip of the high in the last few days; it was so slow moving up until then.

There were network problems at NCEP from 16:00GMT onwards. I think a fix has been put in place so the 18z should be on time.

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GEFS P09 is by no means a great run for the UK, but if it came off it would almost certainly give France a heatwave beating 2003 in intensity, and would probably see the French record of 44C broken. Starting Sat 22nd, continuing to the end of run and beyond.

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Pleased to see that the coming changeable spell does now appear to be a blip in this good summer (southern perspective) when compared to how it was viewed by the models during last week.  I say this because the synoptic trend for around St Swithins day so often proves to be the diecast for the period to the end of August - the grain of truth in the legend. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_144_1.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_144_1.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMOPEU12_144_1.png

Not totally plain sailing towards and through next weekend but the general theme seems to be for the axis of high pressure to be near or just to the south of the UK.  Rather typical of the summer so far.

 

Tells of the season so far that even this week. it's only Tuesday that looks all that poor down here in far-S. England with remaining days ranging from 'meh' to 'not bad'; Wednesday looks dry with good sunny spells and temps near or a little above average, Thursday similarly warm with a few scattered showers albeit potentially on the heavy side, Friday dry again but perhaps a fair bit of cloud so temps no better than average, the weekend warm but with a chance of some spells of rain or drizzle later on Sunday.

That being as per latest model consensus so it could well change a bit. Weekend's particularly uncertain with GFS allowing more ridge influence on Saturday than the other models.

 

Really though, I'm not that fussed given the signals for next week. By a week from today, the large-scale pattern is shaping up nicely on the evening runs;

 

Note the deep trough(s) in the vicinity of Canada/Greenland. These look to become the dominant cyclonic features in the N. Hemisphere, with the trough NE of the UK weakening in favour of ridges from the Azores (reaching there via the UK).

  

This is a classic response to a combination of AAM (atmospheric angular momentum) having climbed a bit in recent days and the movement of some cold Arctic air into Canada which spawns those deep troughs. It's a good thing AAM has risen because we'd otherwise be at the mercy of an unusually strong upper westerly flow aimed W-E or even more NW-SE across us. That's what the models were toying with before the AAM rise fed through (this, as usual, being underestimated or in the case of GFS completely overlooked until relatively short range).

Longer-term, GFS does what it always seems to do and drops AAM back down, resulting in the ridge pulling back west (dramatically so on this particular run). Theoretically, this should not actually transpire; AAM should drop quite a bit less as the atmospheric state is not conditioned to allow otherwise. Not only that but the typical effect of AAM drops become less troublesome for UK weather prospects going into August (well, at least a little). So with any luck we should have a better chance to hold onto well-placed areas of high pressure for widespread fine weather (rather than just in the south) than has been the case so far this summer.

 

So I am feeling optimistic about our prospects - but will be watching like a hawk in case any of those sneaky spanners rear their heads  

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