The way things have panned out in the last few weeks I would imagine any cooler weather will be short lived....(my opinion)

Could well be with the heat never that far away from our shores.

Quite possibly

Models really struggle at this time of year anyway, much more than in winter so getting a pattern established beyond a few days is even more futile than normal

Truly a battle of the models tomorrow. Maximun temperature (by model)

AROME: 36C

ARPEGE: 36C

CPTEC BAM: 36C

ICON: 33C

NMMB: 33C

EURO4: 32C

NMM: 32C

GEM: 32C

NAVGEM: 32C

CMA: 31C

ARW: 31C

GFSP: 31C

NASA GEO5: 31C

FIM: 31C

NCMRWF: 30C

GFS: 29C

HIRLAM: 29C

CFS: 24C

You can add a couple of others to that list (although they only cover the far east of England from central London eastward)

HARMONIE 2.5km: 34C (Gravesend area)

ALARO 4km: 33C (Central London)

The GFSP (new GFS operational from mid July) has 31C so slightly higher than the current GFS op run

You can add a couple of others to that list (although they only cover the far east of England from central London eastward)

HARMONIE 2.5km: 34C (Gravesend area)

ALARO 4km: 33C (Central London)

The GFSP (new GFS operational from mid July) has 31C so slightly higher than the current GFS op run

I reckon the metoffice has it about right with 34C. The vast majority of the models tend to significantly underestimate the max temp. However ARPEGE's 36C in the Bristol area seems quite ridiculous to me and is probably a miscalibration. The AROME's 36C in Heathrow airport does, at least, seem possible but it probably has overdone it by at least a degree. Still 35C could definitely be on the cards at heathrow imo.

Back to the medium term, GFS has removed the storm from the 18z and is more like UKMO 12z now, changeable but still warm away from Scotland. No washout and no return to Autumn from the 18z.

But then becoming unsettled with a low slap bang over us for a long period. No sign of another heatwave for a considerable time. This could and in fact is quite likely to be our hottest spell this summer.

It is looking more and more possible as we close in on 27th to 29th June as we see that NW Atlantic SW off Greenland New Brunswick NF Low shown at Monday 26th June at UKMO T144, with GFS and ECMWF models showing the same system.

Norway Scotland and Scandinavia Finland NE Far N NW Europe away from Southern UK and France where it will remain fine settled and warm- but not the fore mentioned parts where cool and windy breezy and wet weather is shown to develop and swiftly move east NE from Iceland as it arrive in NW N UK by Friday 23 June 2017.

So the Southern and SE UK will have more dry and warm to very warm conditions from Thursday lasting up to early on on Tuesday 27th.  Then from that time on 12z Tuesday 27th Deep North Atlantic to UK and West SW Norwegian Sea NW North Sea will be influenced by some spells of windy and rainy weather with a cooler spell expected to affect many of us.  Those in the SW West Central and NW UK and N UK and much of Ireland should receive plenty of heavy rain in particular, while to the South and East of this area there should be some rain showers and a few longer aoutbreqks of rain here as well!!.

Yeah for keeping dry it could be those in the East and SE side will have to wait until the 28th June (Wednesday) to receive more prolonged rain outbreaks and followed by blustery showers.⛈☔️💨🌫.

Well next week's unsettled spell is starting to look nailed on now with GFS again showing a particularly disturbed pattern which lasts virtually the whole run once it sets In. Looks likely we are going to pay for this hot spell with a rather prolonged (possibly 2 week) unsettled and eventually cooler spell. Not the end of summer in my view bit certainly this time next week the heatwave will be a distant memory.

Your constant flip-flopping with the models is almost as daft as one or...... no, just one other poster. And to say this will almost certainly be the hottest spell of the summer when it's mid June and we have so much heat to the south of us is stupid

Next week currently looking more unsettled, but still mainly dry here and warm too. Mind you, this last week to ten days looked unsettled at one stage too 

 

Your constant flip-flopping with the models is almost as daft as one or...... no, just one other poster. And to say this will almost certainly be the hottest spell of the summer when it's mid June and we have so much heat to the south of us is stupid

Next week currently looking more unsettled, but still mainly dry here and warm too. Mind you, this last week to ten days looked unsettled at one stage too 

I agree with heat to the south we could easily tap into it again but there's no sign of that in the next week or so. And it definitely isn't looking mainly dry from next week.

GEFS00z runs are all (more or less) clustered out to 16 days so confidence in the changeable outlook is high. However what that means "in the real world" is less clear. The south could easily end up with quite a lot of dry and warmish weather IME. 

The GFS and ECMWF are shown increasing possible Developing Low Pressure with trof's within and around it, at 120-144-168-192hrs.  It looks like the UKMO develops it a bit into 1010-1015 Low with trof's that could form in it, but it looks less of a system than what the GFS and ECMWF models develop it into, as it could bring on a deep UK Low that could bring more and more rain and blustery showers some with possible thunderstorms and hail and cumulonimbus clouds etc, with some rainy outbreaks possible.

More watching this pattern evolve or instead it may in future runs be downgraded, to let other weather types take the space- next few days Model predictions need watching.

😀🌞🌤🌧⛈🌬🌊🌈🌫☔️🌦.

It could still be a record breaker today with 36c in the Bristol area

Matt I'm merely commenting on what the models show in the model thread. You can't deny they are all looking unsettled. I'm flip flopping with the models, if they change I will comment on that, but at present they are trending towards quite a lengthy unsettled spell. That is all. 😊

I agree with heat to the south we could easily tap into it again but there's no sign of that in the next week or so. And it definitely isn't looking mainly dry from next week.

If you're commenting on what the models show why come out with this idiotic nugget

"This could and in fact is quite likely to be our hottest spell this summer".

Which models are showing no further hot spells throughout the rest of the summer? 

Matt I'm merely commenting on what the models show in the model thread. You can't deny they are all looking unsettled. I'm flip flopping with the models, if they change I will comment on that, but at present they are trending towards quite a lengthy unsettled spell. That is all. 😊

I agree with heat to the south we could easily tap into it again but there's no sign of that in the next week or so. And it definitely isn't looking mainly dry from next week.

Sorry, which model was showing this was likely to be the hottest spell of the summer?

 

Sorry, which model was showing this was likely to be the hottest spell of the summer?

i think it might have been that new one the mmcw75 - experimental British one 😏😆

 

Sorry, which model was showing this was likely to be the hottest spell of the summer?

Back to the models the UKMO still provides hope that I won't be needing my Ark next week, as it's nowhere as unsettled as the GFS. Time, as ever, will tell.