Summer continues unabated here in the southeast. Despite the 'cooler' feel now temperatures can still be expected to reach 26c (79f) today and 28c (82f) tomorrow. The heat this year since March has been effortless down here.

Nothing too troubling for the foreseeable. 

Continued short notice waves of heat can be expected in the largely slack regime. 

Summer has been fabulous here. I reckon best summer since 2006.

 

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Summer has been fabulous here. I reckon best summer since 2006.

 

Hasnt been noteworthy down here.. bar a couple of hot days. 

2013 & 14 still better so far.

The last few GFS runs have consistently shown a big realignment of the pattern from around the 20th July. Can't tell with the others as they do t go that far yet. It's certainly there in virtually all GEFS members: building of pressure to our North East and a more SW-NE alignment of the jet replacing the current NW-SE flow. A dropping of pressure in the West of the Azores high region too. At the moment it's showing warm dry weather but any big pattern change always risks being for the worst too.

Will be interesting to see if this comes to fruition. To get this kind of consistency there must be some big modelled change upstream, over the Pacific. Switch in the MJO or PNA patterns I assume.

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Ecm builds in the Azores high very nicely end of next week . High 20s again in the South.

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.html

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.html

 

Those look good.

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Some respite from the heat and dry conditions down here this week. A good soaking now probable for the SE. 

 

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Some respite from the heat and dry conditions down here this week. A good soaking now probable for the SE. 

Lots of itty-bitty fronts on the fax charts all over the south in the next few days, but looks more like 'nuisance' rain to me, borne out by the MetO forecast which only has a sprinkling of showers. 

But my garden could do with any rain that's going, so not a nuisance there.

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http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gem/240_mslp850.png?cb=783

More than just another plume- if an easterly sets up from this, 2003 comes to mind.

But it is the GEM.

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Definitely a warming trend being picked up now by the gfs ensembles.  Some very hot runs in there by the end.

 

 

 

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 Lots of itty-bitty fronts on the fax charts all over the south in the next few days, but looks more like 'nuisance' rain to me, borne out by the MetO forecast which only has a sprinkling of showers. 

But my garden could do with any rain that's going, so not a nuisance there.

Quite so David. It will be interesting to see how this pans out. I'm far from convinced that the amount of rainfall being progged will be received. Convection by its very nature is hit and miss and normally steers clear of the south coast if there is any maritime influence from the channel in there. Tuesday nights rain event could still slip further south leaving us high and dry.

We shall see.

 

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Definitely a warming trend being picked up now by the gfs ensembles.  Some very hot runs in there by the end.

 

 

 

Worth keeping an eye on. If 100F is going to be achieved its going to be this year based on the first half of this very warm summer. Maybe we are seeing the first glimmer of it on the GEFS horizon 

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Just looked at Accuweather and i see no signs of anything that hot up to the end of July. Been pretty accurate for this area last couple of months , certainly better than Met Office automated forecasts.

ECM 12z op run is about as good a run as I've seen from any model at any point in the last 6 weeks or so. It would pretty much guarantee the entire UK a decent spell of summery weather should it verify as shown.

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Stunning ecm especially for those in the south but all areas get in on the act by day 8. And by day 10 looks to be setting up a prolonged heatwave.

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.html

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.html

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.html

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.html

 

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ECM 12z op run is about as good a run as I've seen from any model at any point in the last 6 weeks or so. It would pretty much guarantee the entire UK a decent spell of summery weather should it verify as shown.

 

It's a stunner alright gem and gfs similar as well so good output all round. 

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If ECM12z verified I'd not be surprised to see 100F in the UK late this month. 

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If ECM12z verified I'd not be surprised to see 100F in the UK late this month. 

With the right Synoptics between 14 July and 14 August, I'd say 40c is not out of the question. It would be good to see the all time record decimated. 

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If ECM12z verified I'd not be surprised to see 100F in the UK late this month. 

You will be front page news with quotes like that

 

With the right Synoptics between 14 July and 14 August, I'd say 40c is not out of the question. It would be good to see the all time record decimated. 

What we would probably need is for a heatwave to firstly get established, and secondly last for at least a week in duration for us to have the best shot at it. IIRC, the all-time record in August 2003 was set a week or so after that heatwave first commenced.

That said, 37C was recorded at the start of July 2015 somewhere in the south and that didn't turn out to be a prolonged hot spell. My recollection is that the hot spell broke a few days into July and then it never really recovered for the rest of that month.

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What we would probably need is for a heatwave to firstly get established, and secondly last for at least a week in duration for us to have the best shot at it. IIRC, the all-time record in August 2003 was set a week or so after that heatwave first commenced.

That said, 37C was recorded at the start of July 2015 somewhere in the south and that didn't turn out to be a prolonged hot spell. My recollection is that the hot spell broke a few days into July and then it never really recovered for the rest of that month.

2 day or 3 day  wonder heatwaves manage 35c easily. A 2003 style event would tip us over 40c, in my view. I hope the theory gets tested over the next 6 weeks. 

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What we would probably need is for a heatwave to firstly get established, and secondly last for at least a week in duration for us to have the best shot at it. IIRC, the all-time record in August 2003 was set a week or so after that heatwave first commenced.

That said, 37C was recorded at the start of July 2015 somewhere in the south and that didn't turn out to be a prolonged hot spell. My recollection is that the hot spell broke a few days into July and then it never really recovered for the rest of that month.

What is even more remarkable is that this happened within what ended up being a colder than average month according to the CET records. I can remember that every summer month in 2015 had a cooler than average CET and of course, that is still the last cooler than average summer to date, which we (by that, I mean the area which is covered by CET records, and not specifically in the part of the world where I am) have had according to the CET records.

 

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