By Brian Gaze
Before looking ahead it is worth quickly reviewing the weather so far this year as well as Autumn 2021.
The Central England Temperature (CET) has consistently been above average so far this year.
Autumn 2020 was 0.5C warmer than average with a UK mean temperature of 9.9C.
The UK mean temperature for Autumn 2021 was 10.9C which is 1.4C above the 1981 - 2010 average.
The monthly temperature anomalies were:
September: 2.1COctober: 1.4CNovember: 0.8C
The UK rainfall total relative to the 1981 - 2010 average was 82%. The monthly statistics were:
September: 82%October: 128%November: 63%
Sunshine totals were 94% of the 1981-2010 average. The monthly statistics were:
September: 96%October: 87%November: 101%
In recent years there has been a tendency for months to be above rather than below CET and that trend has continued through 2022 so far. That is a significant consideration when looking ahead to the Autumn.
Autumn colours in the Chilterns
The table below summarises output from seasonal forecast models for September, October and November 2021. It represents the data available at time of publication and subsequent updates may favour a different outcome.
Mostly below average
Above average in parts of the UK
C3S multi system incorporates date from a range of sources including: ECMWF, UK Met Office, Meteo France, CMCC, DWD, JMA and NCEP.
There is a strong signal for temperatures to be above the average. The precipitation outlook is less clearly defined, but there are indications of it being drier than average in the south.
The relationship between autumn and winter has been discussed before. There are suggestions of a correlation between warm autumns and mild winters.
In addition to the seasonal models a number of key points are worth considering:
1) There is considered to be a 62% to 66% chance of La Nina continuing through this autumn. La Nina tends to support drier conditions during the meteorological autumn in Spain and parts of France. There is also a correlation with an increased incidence of cold weather in the UK through late autumn and early winter.
2) A more active than normal hurricane season is forecast by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center. An active hurricane season possibly increases the chance of high pressure areas forming over Europe as storm systems track northeastwards.
3) Current high levels of global warmth.
4) Warmer than average seasons have been common in the UK during recent years. All months so far in 2022 have been warmer than the average.
The above pointers suggest a high chance of warmer than average conditions through the first half of the autumn. La Nina could increase the chance of cold spells in late November.
At this stage aggregate temperatures for the meteorological autumn (September, October and November) are considered significantly more likely to be above average than below. However, the chance of relatively cold periods may increase towards the end of the season.
On balance drier than average conditions are favoured in the south. In the north things are quite evenly balanced between wetter and drier than average conditions.
There will be more seasonal computer model runs in the coming weeks and another update will be issued before the autumn forecast is released at the end of August.
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Models include UK Met Office UKV and MOGREPS-G, ECMWF, NCEP GFS, Meteo France Arpege and Arome.