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Spring weather outlook

Warmer and drier than normal?


01/03/2021

The meteorological spring

The meteorological spring runs from March 1st to May 31st. At the start of the season cold weather is a risk and March often brings more snow than December. By May genuine warmth is possible.

Winter 2020-21 was mixed, but across most of the UK temperatures were close to or below the 30 year average when taken over the 3 month period as a whole. Much of the north, as well as parts of East Anglia and the south east, saw significant snow, particularly between Christmas and the middle of February. 

How are the prospects for the meteorological spring which covers March, April and May looking? The TWO seasonal headline is for a warmer and slightly drier than average season.     

Rainbow over Berkhamsted

Spring 2021 outlook

As ever it should be noted that the skill level (accuracy) for long range weather forecasts remains low in the UK. Due to being positioned on the edge of a continental landmass, a number of air masses often affects the weather patterns with the borders between them being close to the UK.

This year seasonal computer models and recent climatology are favouring a warmer than average season. The signal for this is relatively strong in the context of the above. The signal for precipitation amounts is weaker, as is usually the case. Nonetheless, there are indications of rain amounts being below the 30 year average when taken over the 3 month period.

Fine weather in May

Short and medium range computer models are showing the likelihood of cold weather for a time during the first half of March. They also suggest the second half of March will be close to the 30 year average.

During April and May warmer periods are expected to more than offset cooler ones. Precipitation amounts are forecast to be below the average, although the increased chance of heavy showers and thundery weather in the southern half of the UK during the second half of May is noted. 

Summary

The meteorological winter 2020-21 was colder and more varied than the previous two. A lot of the UK saw significant snow and relatively frequent frosts. Despite that there is a signal for spring temperatures to be above the 30 year norm. A weak sign for a drier than normal season is also being flagged up by seasonal computer models.  

TWO seasonal forecast

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