UK Seasonal Outlook

The seasonal forecast is updated every three months. Spring - March 1st, Summer - June 1st, Autumn - September 1st, Winter - December 1st.

Autumn 2021: Drier and milder than average

Forecast Issued 31/08/2021

Important note about long range weather forecasts: It is impossible to say with certainty what the weather will be like more than a few days ahead in the UK. Long range forecasts on TheWeatherOutlook have not been independently verified, and we make no claims for their accuracy. A range of factors including seasonal computer models, recent weather patterns, sea surface temperatures and teleconnections are considered.

Forecast overview

There is considered to be an increased chance of settled periods throughout the three months. However, as is always the case in the autumn there remains a significant risk of wet, windy and even stormy spells.

Temperatures are forecast to be above the average for much of the time, but the chance of a cold snap developing during the second half of November is considered to be greater than usual.

Temperature

Above the 30 year norm over the three month period.

Precipitation

Close to or slightly below the average.

September

Temperature:

Slightly above average.

Precipitation:

Slightly below average.

First half

After a dry start more changeable conditions develop. They lead to showers or longer outbreaks of rain, but it may stay mostly dry in Scotland. During the second week the rain risk becomes focused on the northern half of the UK. In the south it should often be dry and warm. Temperatures slightly above the average taken over the period as a whole.

Second half

Unsettled conditions are expected to develop, with wet and windy spells resulting, particularly in the north west. Later on a transition to drier and more settled conditions is favoured, especially in the south and west. Temperatures are forecast to be slightly above the average in the south and close to it in the north.

 



 

October

Temperature:

Above average.

Precipitation:

Slightly below average.

First half

A good deal of settled weather is forecast early on and it could be quite warm for the time of year on some days. Later on the risk of wet and windy periods increases, particularly in the north. Temperatures as a whole are expected to be above the average.

Second half

After a rather mild start with the risk of wet and windy spells, a transition back to more settled weather takes place. Daytime temperatures generally remain above the average, but some chilly nights could lead to patchy frosts. Fog could also start to become an issue. 

November

Temperature:

Close to average.

Precipitation

Close to average.

First half

Rather mild and often dry conditions early on with rain most likely in the west and north west. A change to unsettled weather probably develops and it leads to wet and windy spells. Temperatures generally above the average over the period as a whole.

Second half

After an unsettled start the chance of colder incursions in the north increases. Temperatures in the south remain close to or slightly above the average. Towards the end of the month high pressure may begin to have more influence, with nighttime frosts becoming widespread at times. The chance of sleet or snow falling to low levels, particularly in the north of the UK, is considered to be greater than usual. Temperatures are favoured to be below the average over the period as a whole.

From Brian Gaze, TWO founder
Since establishing TheWeatherOutlook over 15 years ago the site has grown enormously and running costs have risen. I intend to continue expanding TWO and keeping it free if possible. If you find it useful and would like to contribute to its development please consider making a donation.

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