UK Seasonal Outlook

The seasonal forecast is updated every three months. Spring - March 1st, Summer - June 1st, Autumn - September 1st, Winter - December 1st.

Autumn: Fine start but unsettled later.

Forecast Issued 31/08/2018

Important note about long range weather forecasts: It is considered impossible to say with certainty what the weather will be like more than a few days ahead in the UK. Long range forecasts on TheWeatherOutlook have not been independently verified, and we make no claims for their accuracy. A range of factors including seasonal computer models, recent weather patterns, sea surface temperatures and teleconnections are considered when making the forecasts.

Forecast overview

Warm and dry periods are expected in September and the first half of October. Thereafter it is forecast to become more unsettled with temperatures trending closer to the 30 year average.

Temperature

Above the 30 year average but in large part that is expected to be due to anomalies in September and October.

Precipitation

Over the three month period rainfall levels are expected to be slightly below average.

September

Temperature:

Above average.

Precipitation:

Below average.

First half

Dry and warm weather is expected for much of the time in most of the UK, but it could be more changeable at times in the north west and there is a risk of thundery showers in the south. Towards the end of the period the risk of showers or longer spells of rain may begin to increase in all areas but despite that it probably remains mostly dry.

Second half

After quite a settled start the likelihood of more changeable weather spreading southeastwards increases. The driest and warmest conditions are still expected in the south with the north seeing the coolest and wettest weather. It could become windy on occasion in the north. Overall through this period temperatures are expected to be above average in the south but closer to average in the north.

 



 

October

Temperature:

Above average.

Precipitation:

Close to average.

First half

A reasonable start to the month is expected in the southern half of the UK with above average temperatures and quite a lot of dry weather. In the north more changeable conditions are forecast and gradually they spread southeastwards with an increasing chance of wet and windy spells. 

Second half

Progressively more unsettled weather is expected with wet and windy weather in all parts of the country at times. Very windy on occasion, particularly in the north. The best of the drier spells continue to be in southern and central regions. Temperatures in the south should be above the average, but in the north close to average is more likely.

November

Temperature:

Close to average.

Precipitation

Above average.

First half

Predominantly unsettled conditions, especially in the north, frequently bringing showers or longer outbreaks of rain and windy spells. The best of the drier intervals are expected in southern and central regions. Colder incursions develop at times, especially in the north, but temperatures in the south should be close to or slightly above the average over the period as a whole.

Second half

The theme is expected to be an unsettled one with wet and windy weather prevailing. Colder incursions in northern regions could bring an increasing possibility of sleet or snow, especially over higher ground. At times colder weather could spread southwards. Temperatures are forecast to be close to average over the period as a whole in the south but slightly below average in the north.

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