Autumn: Wetter and milder than average Forecast Issued 01/09/2026 Forecast overview The forecast headline is for rain amounts to be above average across the UK as a whole and there is an elevated chance of windy or stormy spells. Milder than average conditions are strongly favoured. Temperature Above average. Precipitation 95% to 125% of the average. September Temperature: Above average Precipitation: Close to average First half Changeable weather is forecast, but with big regional differences. Although all areas can expect to see showers or longer spells of rain, the wettest conditions will be focused on the north and west of the UK for most of the period. In the south and east some dry and warm or even very warm spells are likely. At times the more settled conditions extend northwards. Second half Mixed over the period as a whole. However, there are indications of high pressure having more influence early on, which could produce a good deal of dry weather. Later on the trend is towards a more changeable or unsettled pattern, although the driest and warmest conditions continue to be in the south. Over this period as a whole, temperatures are expected to be above average in the south but closer to it in the north. October Temperature: Slightly above average Precipitation: Above average First half Unsettled weather is forecast, bringing showers and longer spells of rain to all of the UK. Windy spells are likely, particularly in the north. The best of the drier interludes will probably be in southern and eastern regions. Temperatures in the south should be above average, but in the north they will be closer to it. Second half Often unsettled and windy or possibly stormy. Bands of heavy rain push across the country with brighter and showery spells in between. Temperatures close to or above the seasonal average. November Temperature: Above average Precipitation Above average First half An unsettled theme is expected with wet and windy conditions prevailing. Colder spells in northern regions could bring an increasing possibility of sleet or snow over higher ground. Temperatures are forecast to be above average over the period as a whole. Second half Predominantly unsettled, especially in the north, frequently bringing showers or longer spells of rain and the likelihood of very windy or stormy spells. The south and east are likely to have the best of the drier interludes. Colder incursions are possible at times, especially in the north where the risk of snow increases, but temperatures generally should be close to or slightly above average. Understanding Seasonal Weather Forecasts We want to be completely clear about the limitations of seasonal weather forecasts. It's impossible to predict UK weather with certainty more than a few days in advance. The seasonal forecasts on The Weather Outlook haven't been independently verified, and we can't guarantee their accuracy. How are seasonal weather forecasts made? Seasonal forecasts predict weather patterns months ahead using four main approaches: Computer Models Advanced climate simulations that couple atmosphere and oceans. Models like ECMWF's SEAS5 and NOAA's CFSv2 run multiple scenarios (ensembles) to account for uncertainty. Analogues These compare current patterns with those in previous years to find matching weather situations. The best matching past events are then examined to see how patterns evolved to predict future conditions. Teleconnections Links between distant weather patterns, such as El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Arctic Oscillation (AO), providing predictability months ahead. Sea Surface Temperatures Ocean temperature patterns that persist for months, influencing atmospheric conditions. SST anomalies serve as early indicators of developing weather patterns. How accurate are seasonal weather forecasts? Seasonal forecasts have varying degrees of reliability depending on several factors: Accuracy by Region Forecasts typically offer modest accuracy, with 50-60% accuracy in tropical regions influenced by ENSO events, compared to 30-40% in mid-latitudes. UK Challenges In the UK, skill levels are particularly low, largely due to its geographical position, where multiple competing air masses make long-range predictions especially challenging. Parameter Variability Forecasts are generally more reliable for temperature than precipitation, providing valuable probabilistic guidance that improves on climatology alone.