UK Seasonal Outlook

The seasonal forecast is updated every three months. Spring - March 1st, Summer - June 1st, Autumn - September 1st, Winter - December 1st.

Summer 2024: Slightly warmer and wetter than average

Forecast Issued 31/05/2024

Important note about long range weather forecasts: It is impossible to say with certainty what the weather will be like more than a few days ahead in the UK. Long range forecasts on TheWeatherOutlook have not been independently verified, and we make no claims for their accuracy. A range of factors including seasonal computer models, recent weather patterns, sea surface temperatures and teleconnections are considered.

Forecast overview

A slightly warmer and wetter than average summer is forecast. August is expected to be the driest and warmest of the three months.

Temperature

Slightly above the 1991-2020 average across the UK as a whole. 

Precipitation

Slightly above average.

June

Temperature:

Close to average

Precipitation:

Slightly above average

First half

The first week is expected to bring a good deal of dry weather, although towards the end it starts turning more changeable and wetter, particularly in the north and northwest. Beyond that, a transition to a more mixed period takes place across the UK, with showers or longer spells of rain in all regions. Some rather warm days develop early on, but later temperatures dip to the average or even a little below it.

Second half

Mixed weather continues, with unsettled spells bringing heavy and thundery showers or longer periods of rain. Drier and more settled conditions will also develop at times. Temperatures will often be above the average, in part due to cloudy nights holding them up, but some very warm days are possible too.

July

Temperature:

Slightly above average

Precipitation:

Slightly above average

First half

Changeable with the potential of heavy and thundery rain. However, dry and very warm or even hot periods are possible. Temperatures will be above the seasonal average overall, but significant regional variations are forecast due to the increased likelihood of plumes of hot and humid continental air feeding into the UK.

Second half

Very warm or hot weather may become established across much of the country for a while, but thundery interludes remain likely. Towards the end of the month it may turn more unsettled with outbreaks of rain becoming more widespread. Temperatures dip back towards average.

August

Temperature:

Above average

Precipitation

Slightly below average

First half

The chance of settled periods leading to very warm or hot spells is above normal. However, unsettled interludes bringing heavy showery rain are also expected, particularly in the south and east. It could also be wetter in the north at times.

Second half

Mostly fine and warm weather is forecast for much of the period in the southern half of the UK. However, more changeable and cooler weather is likely in the north and west, and on occasion it could extend into the south.

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