The seasonal forecast is updated every three months. Spring - March 1st, Summer - June 1st, Autumn - September 1st, Winter - December 1st.
Forecast Issued 01/12/2023
Important note about long range weather forecasts: It is impossible to say with certainty what the weather will be like more than a few days ahead in the UK. Long range forecasts on TheWeatherOutlook have not been independently verified, and we make no claims for their accuracy. A range of factors including seasonal computer models, recent weather patterns, sea surface temperatures and teleconnections are considered.
A slightly milder and slightly wetter than average season is forecast.
Slightly above the 1981-2010 average over the three month period as a whole. However, other scenarios are considered possible. In particular, there is a risk of very cold air to the northeast being pulled down across the UK at times during December. The chance probably reduces in January before increasing again towards the end of the winter.
Slightly above average.
Close to average
After a cold start a transition gradually takes places as weather systems push in from the Atlantic. They bring a risk of rain, and on their northern edges snow is possible. The extent of the snow risk is quite uncertain, with relatively small differences to the track they take having a big impact. During the second week changeable conditions are favoured with temperatures fluctuating. Colder air may return for a time, leading to an increased risk of snow, particularly over high ground in the north.
Predominantly unsettled conditions are forecast. All regions can expect spells of rain with the most unsettled conditions in the west and north west. It may also be very windy at times. Over the period as a whole temperatures will probably be close to or slightly above average. The expectation of unsettled conditions also suggests a reduced risk of frost relative to the norm.
The weather is expected to be mostly unsettled with above average amounts of rain. The possibility of very windy or even stormy spells is considered relatively high. Despite the likelihood of above average temperatures over the period as whole, it may be cold enough at times for snow in the north, especially over high ground where significant falls are possible.
Unsettled weather is expected early on. However, a colder and more settled spell could develop for a while, leading to frosts becoming more widespread. Later on unsettled and milder conditions probably return, with wet and windy periods possible in all regions.
Quite unsettled weather is forecast for much of the period with temperatures often close to average in the north and above it in the south. Rainfall levels will probably be slightly above the average with the driest spells in the south and east. Towards the end of the period it may turn colder.
The chance of cold snaps is considered higher than earlier in winter. Therefore, the risk of frost and snow increases in all areas. However, the coldest conditions are forecast to be in the north and east of the UK. Despite that, unsettled and milder periods remain possible.
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