UK Seasonal Outlook

The seasonal forecast is updated every three months. Spring - March 1st, Summer - June 1st, Autumn - September 1st, Winter - December 1st.

Winter 2020-21: Mixed winter.

Forecast Issued 01/12/2020

Important note about long range weather forecasts: It is impossible to say with certainty what the weather will be like more than a few days ahead in the UK. Long range forecasts on TheWeatherOutlook have not been independently verified, and we make no claims for their accuracy. A range of factors including seasonal computer models, recent weather patterns, sea surface temperatures and teleconnections are considered.

Forecast overview

A mixed winter is forecast. December is predicted to bring cold periods and there is a possibility of snow even in parts of southern Britain. Milder conditions are favoured for much of January and early February. It could then turn colder again for a time towards the end of the season. 

Temperature

Cold start but above the 30 year norm over the three month period.

Precipitation

Rainfall levels are forecast to be slightly above the 30 year average in the south east and above average in the north west.

December

Temperature:

Slightly below average.

Precipitation:

Close to average.

First half

Changeable and rather cold weather becomes established during the first week.  All regions can expect to see showers or longer periods of rain with the wettest conditions probably in the south. There is also a risk of snow, particularly but not only over high ground in the north. Snow could fall to lower levels at times and wet accumulations of several cms even in parts of southern and central Britain are possible. The second week starts off rather cold and changeable. Drier conditions perhaps develop from the north leading to an increasing risk of frost and fog. In the south the likelihood of showers remains higher.

Second half

A changeable but predominantly chilly pattern is favoured to dominate, although it could turn milder at times. Southern counties probably have more frequent dry periods which leads to a risk of frost and fog. In the north and particularly the north west more frequent wet spells are expected. Sleet or snow remains most likely over high ground in the north, but it could fall to lower levels at times too. There is considered to be a moderate chance of a polar northerly flow pushing down across the UK for several days and that could bring the snow risk southwards.

 



 

January

Temperature:

Slightly above to above average.

Precipitation:

Above average.

First half

Possibly chilly to begin with but becoming quite unsettled with temperatures close to the average in the north and above average in the south. Rainfall levels probably close to or slightly above the average with settled interludes more likely in the south and east. During the drier periods the chance of frost increases.

Second half

Unsettled and quite stormy conditions are expected to develop, particularly in the north. For the most part snow will probably be restricted to the hills and mountains in the northern half of the UK. Significant rainfall is forecast in all regions, but the wettest conditions typically will be in the west and north west. Temperatures measured over the entire period should be above the average with the biggest anomaly in the south.

February

Temperature:

Slightly above average.

Precipitation

Above average.

First half

Quite unsettled with temperatures often close to or above the average, especially in the south. Above average rainfall levels are also expected with the driest conditions in the south and east. Although frosts occur frequently at this time of the year their incidence is forecast to be below the norm.

Second half

Early in the period it may turn colder with frosts becoming more widespread and sleet or snow showers developing in places, particularly the north and over high ground. Later on unsettled and milder conditions are predicted to return, although in the north temperatures could remain close to the average.

From Brian Gaze, TWO founder
Since establishing TheWeatherOutlook over 15 years ago the site has grown enormously and running costs have risen. I intend to continue expanding TWO and keeping it free if possible. If you find it useful and would like to contribute to its development please consider making a donation.

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