UK Seasonal Outlook

The seasonal forecast is updated every three months. Spring - March 1st, Summer - June 1st, Autumn - September 1st, Winter - December 1st.

Autumn 2019: Mild and quite wet.

Forecast Issued 31/08/2019

Important note about long range weather forecasts: It is considered impossible to say with certainty what the weather will be like more than a few days ahead in the UK. Long range forecasts on TheWeatherOutlook have not been independently verified, and we make no claims for their accuracy. A range of factors including seasonal computer models, recent weather patterns, sea surface temperatures and teleconnections are considered when making the forecasts.

Forecast overview

The forecast headline is for a milder than average autumn. On balance there is considered to be a greater chance of above rather than below average rainfall.

Temperature

The aggregated Central England Temperature (CET) for September, October and November is forecast to be 0.5C to 1.0C above the average.

Precipitation

Over the three month period precipitation levels are forecast to be between 95% to 115% of the average.

September

Temperature:

Close to average.

Precipitation:

Slightly above average.

First half

Quite changeable weather is expected but a north to south split is likely. In the south and south east it should often be dry, although some spells of rain are likely. The north, and particularly the north west, see more frequent wet and windy spells. Temperatures slightly below the average generally, although it could be warm at times in the south east.

Second half

After quite a mixed start the likelihood of more settled weather may increase, particularly in the southern half of the country. As well as drier it also possibly becomes warmer. More changeable conditions may continue in the north west and later in the period return southwards. Temperatures are expected to be above average in the south but closer to average in the north.

 



 

October

Temperature:

Slightly above average.

Precipitation:

Slightly above average.

First half

A reasonable start to the month is expected in the southern half of the UK with above average temperatures and quite a lot of dry weather. In the north more changeable conditions are forecast and gradually they spread southeastwards with an increasing chance of wet and windy spells.

Second half

More unsettled and windy weather is expected to become established. Bands of rain progressively push farther southwards across the country. Brighter and showery spells are also expected with the driest conditions in the south. Temperatures close to the seasonal average.

November

Temperature:

Slightly above average.

Precipitation

Above average.

First half

Predominantly unsettled conditions, especially in the north, bringing showers or longer spells of rain frequently and the likelihood of very windy spells. The best of the drier intervals are expected in southern and central regions. Colder spells are possible at times in the north, but temperatures in the south should be close to or slightly above average.

Second half

The theme is expected to be an unsettled one with wet and windy conditions prevailing. Some colder incursions in the north  could bring an increasing possibility of sleet or snow, especially over higher ground. Temperatures are forecast to be close to average over the period as a whole in the south but possibly slightly below average in the north.

From Brian Gaze, TWO founder
Since establishing TheWeatherOutlook over 15 years ago the site has grown enormously and running costs have risen. I intend to continue expanding TWO and keeping it free if possible. If you find it useful and would like to contribute to its development please consider making a donation.

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