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UK Seasonal Outlook

The seasonal forecast is updated every three months. Spring - March 1st, Summer - June 1st, Autumn - September 1st, Winter - December 1st.

Spring 2023: Slightly warmer and slightly drier than average

Forecast Issued 01/03/2023

Important note about long range weather forecasts: It is impossible to say with certainty what the weather will be like more than a few days ahead in the UK. Long range forecasts on TheWeatherOutlook have not been independently verified, and we make no claims for their accuracy. A range of factors including seasonal computer models, recent weather patterns, sea surface temperatures and teleconnections are considered.

Forecast overview

A slightly warmer and slightly drier than average season is forecast. However, below average temperatures are more likely than above average ones early on. 


Slightly above the 1981-2010 average.


Slightly below average.



Below average.


Close to average.

First half

After a quiet start with close to average temperatures it turns colder and frosts become more widespread. Snow showers develop, mostly affecting the north and east. However, more persistent periods of rain, sleet and snow are forecast to move across the UK. There is uncertainty about where the border between mild and cold air masses will be. Moreover, significant and disruptive snow is possible in all regions, but mostly in the north and particularly over high ground. Milder conditions probably return to southern and central regions later on, while in the north it may remain cold.

Second half

Rather unsettled weather is expected. In the north cold periods lead to an ongoing chance of sleet or snow. It could be cold at times in the south too, but for much of the time temperatures will probably be quite close to the average. The milder conditions in the south mean precipitation is more likely to fall as rain, but in the north further spells of sleet or snow are possible, particularly over high ground.





Close to or slightly above average.


Close to or slightly below average.

First half

Rather changeable weather is expected for much of the period and it leads to an ongoing possibility of showers or longer spells of rain. Despite that, there should be a reasonable amount of dry periods too. Temperatures probably won't be too far from norm, but at times it may be cold enough for showers to turn wintry, especially in the north. Overnight frost continues to be a risk.

Second half

Early on rather unsettled conditions are favoured. Therefore, all regions could have showers or longer periods of rain and temperatures will generally be quite close to the norm. Later on a trend towards more settled and warmer days develops, but nights could still be chilly, particularly in the north.



Above average.


Slightly below the average.

First half

Warmer and drier than average conditions with a good deal of sunshine are favoured across the UK as a whole. Nonetheless, there could be heavy showers too, especially in southern and central regions. Longer spells of rain are also possible and again they are considered more likely in the south.

Second half

A predominantly settled scenario is considered the most likely outcome, although in the south the risk of heavy and thundery downpours could be higher than the average. Temperatures generally well above the average leading to the possibility of very warm days. However, in the south the greater chance of showery and cloudy periods means cooler interludes are possible and temperatures overall could be closer to the norm than in the north.



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