UK Seasonal Outlook

First half

After a warm and dry start showery outbreaks of rain and thunderstorms push northwards across the UK. Drier conditions quickly return, but temperatures dip a little. Through the rest of the period a good deal of fine weather is likely. However, showers or longer spells of rain remain a risk, particularly but not only in the west and north west. Temperatures should often be above the seasonal average.

Second half

A spell of fine and settled conditions with above average temperatures is expected. It could become very warm in southern and central parts, but perhaps turning thundery. In the west and north west temperatures may be pegged back and there is a growing risk of more unsettled and cooler periods of weather. At times they could extend southeastwards.

July

Temperature:

Close to average.

Precipitation:

Above average.

First half

Mixed weather for much of the period, although the emphasis early on may be on drier and warmer conditions. Temperatures on the whole are favoured to be close to the seasonal average.

Second half

Increasingly unsettled with the likelihood of heavy showery outbreaks of rain. However, some drier and warmer spells are still likely. Although temperatures are forecast to be close to the seasonal average overall, significant variations are possible.

August

Temperature:

Above average.

Precipitation

Close to or slightly below average.

First half

Mixed with showers or longer periods of rain but also warm and fine spells. The driest weather will probably be in the south and east, but a heightened risk of heavy showers or thunderstorms means local variations could be large. Temperatures should be above average when aggregated over the period as a whole.

Second half

The chance of settled and very warm periods increases. Showery spells of rain are still probable, particularly in the north and west.