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Weather news and views from Brian Gaze.
Posted Wed 7th August 14:02
Unseasonable weather is expected later this week. The culprit is a deepening area of low pressure approaching from the southwest.
Computer models are painting a fairly consistent picture for the next few days. An area of low pressure which wouldn't be out of place in the winter months develops to our southwest and track northeastwards. Its centre probably crosses Ireland and Scotland before it moves away towards Scandinavia.
The strongest winds are likely to come in two periods. Weather fronts associated with the low pressure push northwards through Friday bringing rain and the first batch of strong winds. Gusts of 40mph to 50mph are possible. However the windiest conditions are expected on Saturday with gusts exceeding 50mph in parts of southern and central Britain.
The Arpege wind gust forecast chart below is for 13:00 BST on Saturday 10th August. It looks very unseasonable and is a big contrast with the hot weather parts of England were experiencing in late July.
As well as windy it will also be wet. Weather fronts associated with the low pressure bring outbreaks of rain into southwestern England tomorrow afternoon. They quickly move northeastwards overnight and are followed by clearer conditions. Showers then become widespread and heavy during Saturday. However south eastern England and East Anglia may miss many of them and have warm sunny spells.
The Arpege rain forecast loop below is for 13:00 BST Thursday 8th August to 00:00 BST Sun 11th August.
It shows the largest rain totals in northern and western areas. Totals of between 50mm and 100mm are enough to cause problems with flooding. In south east England and East Anglia aggregates are much lower with between 5mm and 10mm shown. Totals from other models vary. The GFS currently shows similar amounts to Arpege but the DWD ICON is going for 20mm plus. It is something to keep an eye on, but in recent weeks it has often been drier in the south east than some of the model predictions have suggested.
The unsettled theme continues next week. All regions have further showers or longer spells of rain. There's no sign of the heat returning at the moment and if anything temperatures remain disappointing for the time of year, especially in the north.
A deep area of low pressure brings wet and windy weather to the UK later this week. All regions can expect some rain but amounts vary with the wettest conditions probably in the north and west. Unseasonably strong winds are also a factor with a risk of gales in much of southern and central Britain on Saturday.
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