The latest weather buzz

Weather updates from site founder Brian Gaze that keep you in the know.

Winter over and out

Posted Sat 2nd February 2019 14:30

Cold conditions continue in the short term but a change takes place early next week. Disturbances push in from the Atlantic and a predominantly west or southwesterly flow becomes established. It brings milder air across the UK, so is that it for the winter?

February looking mild?

At the moment the medium range models are pointing towards mild weather for much of the first half of February. There has been quite a big turn around in the prospects. Until the last few days a cold February had looked probable but now some model runs are showing spring like weather at times.

The London GEFS 06z plot below shows 850hPa temperatures recovering in the next few days. For the rest of the 16 day period they generally stay close to the 30 year average or above it. A few notably mild runs are appearing and if they verified we could see daytime temperatures exceeding 15C (59F) in the southern half of the UK.    

On the lower half of the plot (which shows precipitation) it looks quite wet in the short term. Beyond February 10th there are fewer rain spikes which suggests the possibility of high pressure building from the south.  

Despite the much milder outlook I'm going to remain very cautious for the moment. Until a week ago the ensemble data was as confident about a prolonged cold outbreak as it is now about the mild outlook. The lesson is that even ensemble models which are intended to account for uncertainty, can and do flip quickly at times.  

TL;DR

The weather will turn milder in the coming days. Computer ensemble models which had been strongly favouring a cold February have flipped and now point to predominantly mild weather during the next couple of weeks. Despite that there is time for winter to return.

Model Inventory

Berkhamsted snow

If you missed out on the snow in recent days here are a couple of short videos I filmed in and around Berkhamsted, Hertfordshire. Level snow depths were between 6cm and 8cm.

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nckjager 6 years ago Show replies(0)

Definitely looks like a milder outlook for the next few weeks, can't see much cold risk on the horizon

Update

antss1 6 years ago Show replies(1)

Winter will be back end Feb and well in to March

Update

sheila 6 years ago Show replies(0)

Sorry I meant 12pm, then 3pm, 4pm etc....

Update

sheila 6 years ago Show replies(0)

I agree with you all. Right up until the last minute the Met Office had us in an Amber warning area for 15 to 20 cm snow, which was predicted to start 12pm Thurs evening, then 3pm, then 4pm, then 6pm - eventually snowed at 7pm and we had about 7cms!

Update

mattielb 6 years ago Show replies(0)

Apologies, I could not get the Met office days 16-30 in one post, hence the multiple posts.

Update

mattielb 6 years ago Show replies(0)

There is the possibility that frontal systems may bring wintry hazards, particularly if a more east or northeasterly flow develops. Temperatures overall around the average. Low likelihood of widely cold conditions developing.

Update

mattielb 6 years ago Show replies(0)

At this stage, it looks as though Atlantic low pressure systems will track further to the south, with high pressure situated to the north. This set up would bring slightly wetter conditions across the south of the UK, with some strong winds at times.

Update

mattielb 6 years ago Show replies(0)

At least honest enough to admit the uncertainty. UK Outlook for Sunday 17 Feb 2019 to Sunday 3 Mar 2019: Very low confidence emerges through the rest of February as to whether a more blocked pattern redevelops or we maintain more of an Atlantic influ

Update

mattielb 6 years ago Show replies(0)

I meant February 2019 cold or very cold spell failing spectacularly. Is it me or do the models seem to more often get it wrong about these cold spells than get them right? Yet these people claim they know what our climate will be like in 2050 when th

Update

nevowls 6 years ago Show replies(0)

2 set ups in pattern that seem to be less frequent over last 30+years are 1) Biscay lows pushing up into Euro highs and 2) Scandanavian lows and Atlantic highs with what were described as little whistling lows that would run down the spine of the cou

Update

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