Weather updates from site founder Brian Gaze that keep you in the know.
Heavy snow is expected to bring disruption on Sunday to parts of central and possibly southern Britain. Over high ground accumulations of 20cm are possible and even at low levels snow depths of 10 cm are likely in places.
Ssome uncertainty about the northern and southern extents of the snow risk remains. In the south milder air will be pushing in and turning the precipitation back to rain or sleet. In much of northern England it may remain dry with the precipitation not reaching at all.
I've posted some charts below from the Meteo France Arpege 6z model. There's also a link to the Arpege 6z precipitation type loop forecast for 36 hours beginning at 06:00 GMT today. I think this model run will turn out to be reasonably close to the mark although as I said there is scope for adjustments either northwards or southwards.
By early tomorrow morning a mix of rain, sleet and snow is shown across southern counties. Remember that if it is snowing in your locality at this time it could turn to rain later as milder air pushes in.
By 06:00 GMT the snow is absolutely hammering down in parts of Wales and there's heavy snow in much of central England. In the south it's mainly wet not white.
By 09:00 GMT the snow has is probably approaching its northern limit. That now looks to be a little further south than was looking likely a couple of days ago. An area from the Wash in the east to Northern Wales in the west may be as far north as it gets.
By mid-day little has changed. In parts of central England and Wales the snow will probably be piling up, especially over high ground, but even at lower levels significant accumulations are expected.
By mid-afternoon the precipitation is becoming more fragmented and is edging back southwards. During this period there could be some accumulations of snow further south, especially over high ground.
I've pasted in the Arpege 6z loop I posted on Twitter earlier this afternoon. It shows all of the frames from 06:00 GMT this morning to 18:00 GMT tomorrow.
PS: At the time of writing the 12z GFS model run is showing a similar picture.
Météo France Arpege 6z precipitation type look for 6 GMT 09/12 to 18 GMT 10/12. The public chart viewer on TWO is currently showing the earlier 0z update but the 12z run will be available this evening https://t.co/CZeKMQn6ME pic.twitter.com/5aB6KenyyQ — TheWeatherOutlook (@TWOweather) December 9, 2017
Météo France Arpege 6z precipitation type look for 6 GMT 09/12 to 18 GMT 10/12. The public chart viewer on TWO is currently showing the earlier 0z update but the 12z run will be available this evening https://t.co/CZeKMQn6ME pic.twitter.com/5aB6KenyyQ
Edit: 18:50 GMT. Here's the Arpege 12z loop which seems to have shifted things a little southwards.
Here's the Meteo France Arpege 12z precipitation type loop out to 02:00 GMT Mon 11/12. Arpege could have this wrong but it has an excellent record in getting the track of these systems nailed on. https://t.co/jkqG06YfWf pic.twitter.com/phDN7YjAd5 — TheWeatherOutlook (@TWOweather) December 9, 2017
Here's the Meteo France Arpege 12z precipitation type loop out to 02:00 GMT Mon 11/12. Arpege could have this wrong but it has an excellent record in getting the track of these systems nailed on. https://t.co/jkqG06YfWf pic.twitter.com/phDN7YjAd5
Heavy snow is expected in central parts of England and much of Wales tomorrow. The northern and southern boundaries of the snow are still not entirely certain so don't forget to take a look out of your window! Through the first half of the day the southern extent of the snow is expected to be close to Northampton / Milton Keynes or possibly slightly farther south. The northern extent possibly stretching across from South Yorkshire to northern Wales. During the afternoon the snow could spread southwards but it becomes lighter and patchier.
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