That ECM looks far to progressive. 

It is, but those options are in its suite. 
This will run for a while yet.

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Wow the ECM really has been dogtuliprecently.  All over the place.
 

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That ECM looks far to progressive. 

Yes, the models are all over the place as regards next mid-week. ECM 12z OP offers another variation of the theme. 

Far too early to sort this out. More chopping and changing to come. 

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there have been plenty of flips in the past, the ENS are just as fallible as a single chart. If there is a new pulse in the jet then all the runs have to react. The extension of any cold is going to be fallible beyond 12th Dec, but still a chance it can continue

Well they're not, on the whole. That's the point of them. 

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As is often the case UKMO seems to be the middle ground between GFS and ECM. 

I wouldn't br surprised if it's closest with rain for the south and a decent snow event for the Midlands. 

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As I said a couple of days ago I expect the cold spell to break between 12/12 and 17/12. The ensembles (ECM and GEFS which are generally similar to each other) have been consistent in suggesting this. However, the cold conditions could hold on longer in the north and east of the UK.

 

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It is, but those options are in its suite. 
This will run for a while yet.

Indeed. It'll be interesting to see what the ens suite says later. Not surprised one of the ops has reverted to this scenario, hopefully it's not well supported.

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MOGREPS-G 12z is just appearing.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/mogreps.aspx 
 

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As I said a couple of days ago I expect the cold spell to break between 12/12 and 17/12. The ensembles (ECM and GEFS which are generally similar to each other) have been consistent in suggesting this. However, the cold conditions could hold on longer in the north and east of the UK.

 

I would politely disagree with that I don't think there has been a strong signal for the cold spell to break during this time frame, if anything the cold continuing has been favoured. Appreciate that the recent runs have a quicker return to mild and as expected a few more ensembles supporting this, however I would say it's still in the balance.

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Well they're not, on the whole. That's the point of them. 

Well, you're both right in different ways.  The ensemble suite is useful for gauging the stability of the evolution in the short- to medium-term, ie perhaps out to 4 or 5 days.   It is beyond that the ensembles can't detect something unexpected that happens in the atmosphere: clearly things do change otherwise the forecast charts would be rock solid for a much longer period of time.  We have all seen the ensemble suite flip unexpectedly; it's happened in the last couple of days, as Brian commented.

As Rumsfeld said, in a different context, there are known unknowns but there are also the unknown unknowns. It's the latter that brings the uncertainty.

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I would politely disagree with that I don't think there has been a strong signal for the cold spell to break during this time frame, if anything the cold continuing has been favoured. Appreciate that the recent runs have a quicker return to mild and as expected a few more ensembles supporting this, however I would say it's still in the balance.

I think that maybe Brian might have suggested that the signals were emerging that the pattern could break, rather than would.

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Met Office now showing light snow & snow showers on Thursday evening here, reflecting some of the high-res output. 

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ECM has a very 7th Feb 1996 look about it synoptically

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• Neither ECM or GFS going for extended cold tonight, albeit with different scenarios.

Well ECM was at the top end of its ensembles this evening, but some support, all about how far the low pushes North and then where it wanders off to if we are lucky. Hopefully not stay in situ. Interesting watch.
Martin

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IBM model clearly not going for a quick breakdown, latest iPhone update has a max of 0 next Thursday here, with snow on Tue and Wed.

@Brian Gaze that 12Z MOGREPS update has  just about everything. Huge scatter st the end with some diving to -10 at 850. 

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Well ECM was at the top end of its ensembles this evening, but some support, all about how far the low pushes North and then where it wanders off to if we are lucky. Hopefully not stay in situ. Interesting watch.
Martin

At 850 level the Op is well supported IMBY and in the majority.  Less clear at T2M, suggesting at least some of the members bringing milder 850s in are dragging cold air in ahead of them and it stays coldish at the surface.

Plenty of scatter thereafter in terms of whether the colder 850s returns or not, presumably reflecting whether the LP heads East, fills over the UK or heads further North. Given your comments I assume it's less likely the LP spins up milder air over the whole of the UK. 

Be interesting seeing what tomorrows runs bring as we're starting to creep towards the point where the models should be getting a better handle on that LP development and track although it's the kind of setup where changes seem to happen right up to 3-4 days out. (Stereotypically the LP ends up much further south than shown, something I could live with although means no big snow event for those better positioned). 

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Shocking downgrade for the ECM mean
Is this the moment we all feared?
https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=1&map=0&type=1&archive=0 

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Shocking downgrade for the ECM mean
Is this the moment we all feared?
https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=1&map=0&type=1&archive=0 

Yep, time to throw the towel in. I guess winter is over?

Yep, time to throw the towel in. I guess winter is over?

confident,  🤝
 

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