Shocking downgrade for the ECM mean
Is this the moment we all feared?
https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=1&map=0&type=1&archive=0 

Shocking downgrade?  In global modelling terms that's really quite a minor adjustment, ten days away.  It's way to soon to call upgrades or downgrades that far away, IMHO.

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Rather run the risk of the Atlantic low engaging the cold air and see what transpires than have maybe a week of hard to severe frosts, daytime temps barely above freezing and absolutely bone dry. 

Big shift on ECM ENS 12z. Similar movement to GEFS 12z.

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Big shift on ECM ENS 12z. Similar movement to GEFS 12z.

The 12th/13th is the time where the uncertainty starts. I suspect it will be another few days before we have clarity for that period.

Before then things look constantly cold and this theme continues on the 18z GFS op run: https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_108_1.png 

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Ghastly pub run for extended cold. Fun and games for the north east before then however. 

Ghastly pub run for extended cold. Fun and games for the north east before then however. 

on TWO it is out to t+180 and it looks good for cold weather fans.

 

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on TWO it is out to t+180 and it looks good for cold weather fans.

 

Ghastly for people's heating bills.

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Ghastly pub run for extended cold. Fun and games for the north east before then however. 

And there was I thinking the 18Z GFS has swung towards prolonging the cold spell again but what do I know? 😎

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Ghastly pub run for extended cold. Fun and games for the north east before then however. 

Eh?  I'm watching it roll out and it looks absolutely fine so far, out to Day 9.  The LP over Poland/Germany is being modeled to edge west, advecting slightly colder air our way v the 12z.

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And there was I thinking the 18Z GFS has swung towards prolonging the cold spell again but what do I know? 😎

about to say the same, will listen to the comments now rather than look

No let up to the generally cold outlook at T210 with -6 uppers across the whole of the UK.
https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2022120618/gfs-1-210.png?18 

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Control looks ok too. Lets Hope ECM and UKMO are being too progressive
https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=132&mode=0&carte=0&ext=0 

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Gastly for anyone who has been here for years and seen it all before.. #whathappensnext

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oh i dont know if im coming or going. Earlier, winter was over and now the pendulum swung back?  I'll give it 24hrs... 

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it would be great to see someone's profile to the left of their post again Brian - knowing where someone is is impprtant in this - as is how mnay posts theve made #nimby

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No let up to the generally cold outlook at T210 with -6 uppers across the whole of the UK.
https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2022120618/gfs-1-210.png?18 

Beyond t210 GFS loses the plot. It spawns a dartboard low over Greenland which then crashes SEwards head on with High pressure to our North, pushing it out the way as if it's not there 😅

It's almost as if the model wants to get to a breakdown by the end of the run, but doesn't know how to do it. 
 

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Eh?  I'm watching it roll out and it looks absolutely fine so far, out to Day 9.  The LP over Poland/Germany is being modeled to edge west, advecting slightly colder air our way v the 12z.

Yes, I too was wondering where WM was coming from with that comment about the GFS 18z being ghastly for continued cold. Looks better in that regard than the GFS 12z and the ECM 12z op runs, in my view.

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Yes, I too was wondering where WM was coming from with that comment about the GFS 18z being ghastly for continued cold. Looks better in that regard than the GFS 12z and the ECM 12z op runs, in my view.

Well the 850s rise above zero for about 12 hours at T294. Perhaps that's what he meant. 

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Yes, I too was wondering where WM was coming from with that comment about the GFS 18z being ghastly for continued cold. Looks better in that regard than the GFS 12z and the ECM 12z op runs, in my view.

Hi David, 

Yes, better than the GFS 12z and it handles the LP approaching (or in this case not approaching) from the SW very differently. It does mean no widespread snow event but it also drops a deep LP SSE from Baffin Bay, west of Greenland, down into the North Sea and sets up a renewed Arctic plunge as we head towards Xmas.

Obviously it will all change again in the 00z and that evolution may not have much ensemble support. It just shows how tricky this is going to be.  The Met Office guy on that YouTube video was saying it will be several more days before the behaviour of that LP away to the SW is resolved.

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Well the 850s rise above zero for about 12 hours at T294. Perhaps that's what he meant. 

Except the run was only out to about T+168 when he posted that comment.

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