SJV
  • SJV
  • Advanced Member
07 December 2022 06:37:55
Much better ECM op this morning...

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moomin75
07 December 2022 06:39:58
Originally Posted by: SJV 

Much better ECM op this morning...

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Blimey, that has put the cat amongst the pigeons.

This has a New Year's Eve 78/79 look about it.

Another Volte Face from ECM, but this time for the better (for snow lovers).


Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

CreweCold
07 December 2022 06:41:44
UKMO, ICON, GEM, ECM and GEFS swinging towards sustained cold this morning. EC at D7 is a beauty, along with the UKMO.

Crewe, Cheshire

55 metres above sea level

doctormog
07 December 2022 06:44:05
It looks like the picture for the middle of next week is not really much clearer this morning. Before then, cold.

The 00z ECM op run is as good for wintry weather fans as the previous op run was poor.


Rob K
07 December 2022 06:48:19
There's always one isn't there? UKMO and now ECM going cold so of course GFS throws out a stinker.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

moomin75
07 December 2022 06:51:57
Originally Posted by: Rob K 

There's always one isn't there? UKMO and now ECM going cold so of course GFS throws out a stinker.

😂😂 I was thinking exactly that. Certainly keeps us on our toes. 
Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

Whether Idle
07 December 2022 06:52:45
In these situtions you do need cross model agreement at 120 and sometimes 96 hours.  Cold in the short term, uncertain in the medium term. A fascinating period of model watching coming up and by the end of the weekend things will be clearer for next week,.
Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
SJV
  • SJV
  • Advanced Member
07 December 2022 06:53:12
Originally Posted by: Rob K 

There's always one isn't there? UKMO and now ECM going cold so of course GFS throws out a stinker.

Going by wetterzentrale, it isn't well supported by its own ensembles. Even in its better runs though, its often been a hot mess post D6 or so. Still far from convinced by this upgrade.


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BJBlake
07 December 2022 07:00:02
The GFS Op, Control, and mean are all bringing the cold spell to a close in 7 days, via a damp squib - roll-over-and-die ending, via a mini high pressure that limply succeeds to the normal west to east flow, with a polar maritime end. This is at total odds to the other models. I am pinning my faith in the UKMO, but I fear the GFS is too often the storm-crow and latches on to pattern changes earlier than the others, but may be this time will be different. The next 7 days will be interesting, and I am sure the collective output is far from resolved.
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Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
Arbroath 1320
07 December 2022 07:04:54
GFS 0z ENS all over the place for next week. The model hasn't got a clue how to handle approaching LP from the SW.

Consistency across the other models this morning on maintaining the cold. 

​​​​​​Medium term outlook still likely to continue to flip flop run to run I expect. 


GGTTH
doctormog
07 December 2022 07:09:56
Here's a quick overview of the GEFS options at day 10: https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSSPAGEU00_240_1.png 

😁


Ally Pally Snowman
07 December 2022 07:10:13
ECM is ridiculous from hero to zero to hero again. 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Heavy Weather 2013
07 December 2022 07:21:13
High risk comes high reward. Exciting models

this morning it it's snow your after. GFS a mess, but good to see ECM, GEM and METO delivering some excitement.


Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

Gandalf The White
07 December 2022 07:22:14
Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Here's a quick overview of the GEFS options at day 10: https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSSPAGEU00_240_1.png 

😁

LOL, for a moment I was transported to a primary school art display.

But it makes the point quite well.  Consistency notable for its absence.

Of course GFS could be resolving the pattern correctly but with ECM and UKMO showing similar evolutions I'm inclined to give it a lower likelihood of being right.


Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



Rob K
07 December 2022 07:23:40
IBM model showing no breakdown, max 1C right out to next Friday here with snow symbols on Tuesday and Wednesday. (After a wobble yesterday when it switched to rain on Wednesday). 
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Heavy Weather 2013
07 December 2022 07:30:10
Btw - Is Darren (Retron) OK. He would normally be all over this excitement - but barely seen him for weeks?
Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

CreweCold
07 December 2022 07:30:57
EC ensembles are pretty solidly cold with a majority cluster that the op and control sit in the middle of.

Crewe, Cheshire

55 metres above sea level

moomin75
07 December 2022 07:32:51
The latest MOGREPS run shows far fewer mild runs than last night's 18z and yesterday's 12z.

Just a few stragglers go mild now.


Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

Jiries
07 December 2022 07:48:25
Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 

Btw - Is Darren (Retron) OK. He would normally be all over this excitement - but barely seen him for weeks?

I notice that but see we heading for boring UK standard frosty and less cold temps at 2 to 3C which not interested him.  I hope the phantom snow next week get cancelled as need to travel to Slough and back home via National Expres.  I prefer the original past predictions of lots of snow tomorrow and next few days under this supposed LP follow by hard frost under snow cover that I could record well below -10C.  Look at Greece get cold and snow first day not like here get cold first day but dry or rain instead. 

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
07 December 2022 07:49:16
Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 

Btw - Is Darren (Retron) OK. He would normally be all over this excitement - but barely seen him for weeks?

A regular in Forum Arns/Wordle, just not in here


"The most severe frost last night and this morning as I ever felt  ... the water upstairs in the basins froze in a few minutes after being put there this morn". Parson Woodforde's Diary, 14th January 1792, Norfolk

Chichester 12m asl

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