Its rare to see a chart max out its lower end of annomally temps

https://www.wxcharts.com/charts/gfs/europe/charts/2mtemp_anom_20221128_06_336.jpg?  

Belarus almost 30*C below normal.

This kinda chart is up there with the ones posted early July this year.

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GFS 06z was not without interest, but my main reason for posting is to test performance and image embed functionality.

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I like the the change to a 24hr clock.

ICON still going for a monster Greenland block with the promise of Nivana from the northeast post 180.

The slow burner it might be, but it could very well be worth the wait.

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I like the the change to a 24hr clock.

ICON still going for a monster Greenland block with the promise of Nivana from the northeast post 180.

The slow burner it might be, but it could very well be worth the wait.

I'd rather wait for it for another 2/3 weeks to get the festive weather in the immediate lead-up to and over Xmas, than have a cold spell earlier in december before a return to milder gunk before Xmas

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https://im2.ezgif.com/tmp/ezgif-2-d944a2db7e.gif I do love the retrogression of that cold low on the 0z ECM.

A very rare thing and, although the air isn't that cold, I think it would definitly be a rain->snow even for a lot of the UK.

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  https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2022112812/gfsnh-0-312.png?12 

 Going to be interesting viewing the next few days 

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I'd rather wait for it for another 2/3 weeks to get the festive weather in the immediate lead-up to and over Xmas, than have a cold spell earlier in december before a return to milder gunk before Xmas

Agreed, Saint.

The weather leading up to Xmas 2009 was perfect for me, and the snow came at just the right time (1 week before Xmas) rather than a full month before it as happened the following year. Some people have noted some similarities between the current model output for the next week or so, and for the synoptics we had during early to mid-December in 2009; I can see where they are coming from.

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  https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2022112812/gfs-2-330.png?12 

   https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2022112812/gfs-0-330.png?12 

  https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2022112812/gfs-1-330.png?12 

 Battleground Britain 

  

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Ahem Neil, channel low alert lol, and two in a row 😁

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Ahem Neil, channel low alert lol, and two in a row 😁

That's the about to be retired OP - going out in style!
More runs needed? 😂

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That's the about to be retired OP - going out in style!
More runs needed? 😂

The overall pattern on the parallel run is not that different. It's still a very interesting outlook in the medium term with the potential for anything from average and relatively settled conditions to something a good deal more wintry. Too early to say which will prevail just yet but the seemingly never ending milder than average conditions of late look like coming to an end.

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That's the about to be retired OP - going out in style!
More runs needed? 😂

We should bookmark it, wouldn't it be funny if for once a T+360 chart actually came off 🤣

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The overall pattern on the parallel run is not that different. It's still a very interesting outlook in the medium term with the potential for anything from average and relatively settled conditions to something a good deal more wintry. Too early to say which will prevail just yet but the seemingly never ending milder than average conditions of late look like coming to an end.

That spoiler low shows how hard it is to get a clean easterly in this country, especially for the south. I remember Darren's thread about mid winter easterlies from a few years back. I dont think we have had one since Dec/Jan 97

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That spoiler low shows how hard it is to get a clean easterly in this country, especially for the south. I remember Darren's thread about mid winter easterlies from a few years back. I dont think we have had one since Dec/Jan 97

This is true but there is a lot of water (and runs) to go under the bridge before this becomes anything more than a hypothetical discussion of possibilities. When the day comes we could be in roaring southwesterlies or biting easterlies given the timescale. The current trend is for blocking in areas conducive to cold for the UK but as we all know it's never that simple.

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can we honestly be choosy about when (if any) colder weather comes?! 

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https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2022112812/gens-5-1-192.png 

Pert 5 would be ideal. all that is missing is deep cold pool

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This is true but there is a lot of water (and runs) to go under the bridge before this becomes anything more than a hypothetical discussion of possibilities. When the day comes we could be in roaring southwesterlies or biting easterlies given the timescale. The current trend is for blocking in areas conducive to cold for the UK but as we all know it's never that simple.

Sadly the press have already jumped the gun, lets hope it does come off this time

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Sadly the press have already jumped the gun, lets hope it does come off this time

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Sounds like one of your chat up lines. 😃

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I notice every time the Press printed this nonsense we lose the cold spell.  In the past when I used to buy newspapers they never put this nonsense headlines but only mentioned of any events for today or next day or yesterday reports.  There was no mentioned of Feb 1991 big freeze on the way 2 weeks or 1 week to that, only the day before it arrive and reports what happening every day that it.  More accurate and no curse on that.

Interesting ECM 12z.

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