The GFS Op, Control, and mean are all bringing the cold spell to a close in 7 days, via a damp squib - roll-over-and-die ending, via a mini high pressure that limply succeeds to the normal west to east flow, with a polar maritime end. This is at total odds to the other models. I am pinning my faith in the UKMO, but I fear the GFS is too often the storm-crow and latches on to pattern changes earlier than the others, but may be this time will be different. The next 7 days will be interesting, and I am sure the collective output is far from resolved.

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GFS 0z ENS all over the place for next week. The model hasn't got a clue how to handle approaching LP from the SW.

Consistency across the other models this morning on maintaining the cold. 

​​​​​​Medium term outlook still likely to continue to flip flop run to run I expect. 

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Here's a quick overview of the GEFS options at day 10: https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSSPAGEU00_240_1.png 

😁

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ECM is ridiculous from hero to zero to hero again. 

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High risk comes high reward. Exciting models
this morning it it's snow your after. GFS a mess, but good to see ECM, GEM and METO delivering some excitement.

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Here's a quick overview of the GEFS options at day 10: https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSSPAGEU00_240_1.png 

😁

LOL, for a moment I was transported to a primary school art display.

But it makes the point quite well.  Consistency notable for its absence.

Of course GFS could be resolving the pattern correctly but with ECM and UKMO showing similar evolutions I'm inclined to give it a lower likelihood of being right.

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IBM model showing no breakdown, max 1C right out to next Friday here with snow symbols on Tuesday and Wednesday. (After a wobble yesterday when it switched to rain on Wednesday). 

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Btw - Is Darren (Retron) OK. He would normally be all over this excitement - but barely seen him for weeks?

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EC ensembles are pretty solidly cold with a majority cluster that the op and control sit in the middle of.

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The latest MOGREPS run shows far fewer mild runs than last night's 18z and yesterday's 12z.

Just a few stragglers go mild now.

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Btw - Is Darren (Retron) OK. He would normally be all over this excitement - but barely seen him for weeks?

I notice that but see we heading for boring UK standard frosty and less cold temps at 2 to 3C which not interested him.  I hope the phantom snow next week get cancelled as need to travel to Slough and back home via National Expres.  I prefer the original past predictions of lots of snow tomorrow and next few days under this supposed LP follow by hard frost under snow cover that I could record well below -10C.  Look at Greece get cold and snow first day not like here get cold first day but dry or rain instead. 

Btw - Is Darren (Retron) OK. He would normally be all over this excitement - but barely seen him for weeks?

A regular in Forum Arns/Wordle, just not in here

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