Onwards...

PS: I'll take a look at the performance issues with posting in the next couple of days.

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ECM 12Z shows the old problem of high pressure over the Med feeding milder air into an easterly feed for the southern half of the country. I prefer the GFSP!

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The current pattern has 2009 written all over it... non stop deluge which came to an abrupt halt as the month ended. Then we all know what happened next. 

Indeed but it's a decent position if we get there as further down the line hopefully the high would expand and flatten the low. But it's great to have these synoptics to look at. Better than Azores SW winds

If the ECM comes off will be the best start to winter synopticly since 2010

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=216&mode=1&map=1&type=0&archive=0 

Regardless of what happens its nice not to see the usual zonal setup.

If the ECM comes off will be the best start to winter synopticly since 2010

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=216&mode=1&map=1&type=0&archive=0 

Regardless of what happens its nice not to see the usual zonal setup.

The ensemble mean at day 10 is impressive: https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2022112712/EDH1-240.GIF  

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https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/ecmwfens_display.php?x=263&y=76&run=12&type=2&runpara=0&mode=1 

A decent cluster going cold in the 10-15 day range.

Another cold pub run developing tonight...

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&time=0&run=18&lid=OP&h=0&tr=24&mv=0#mapref 

Much better alignment on the 18z!
https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2022112718/gfs-1-216.png?18 
 

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Yes - a much better 18z run, and a great easterly set up developing next week, even now on the BBC

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Para shows a decent variation on the theme - bringing snow to the East Coast, like a throwback to the 0.4 degree of warming days - I.e the 60s to 80s. Pre-Christmas festive weather is the best...advent with tree-tops glistening: I'd better get the thermals out...
 

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Consistency for an esterly across the models - but the sobriety of the oz run compared o the pub run, lacks a northerly component and therefore lacks engagement with arctic air: Easterlies are never less better than relentless westerlies and might bring at times, some drier and brighter periods perhaps. No retro east coast snow showers though. 

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Consistency for an esterly across the models - but the sobriety of the oz run compared to the pub run, lacks a northerly component and therefore lacks engagement with arctic air: Easterlies are nevertheless better than relentless westerlies and might bring at times, some drier and brighter periods perhaps. No retro east coast snow showers though, alas.

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ECM would be a painful evolution, luckily it's at 240. It does show how fraught any sort of cold spell forecast is for UK.

The theme holds this morning, with dry and increasingly colder conditions developing by the weekend.
Subtle changes in the mid term affect the influence if the Iberian low, strength of any easterly and the possibility of retrogression but all possibilities are still in play and the period 4th Dec onwards is not resolved by a long way.
The headline to be found in the pot of options on show is 'the theme continues'. 
 

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Looks like the good synoptics will be wasted due to moderation of the Easterlies from the very warm North Sea. Frustrating but I suppose that is just the reality of a modern era Winter in the UK.

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The spread of the 0C isotherm into Europe on the WX summary has been disrupted by milder air moving N acoss the Balkans, leaving the main bulk more concentrated over Scandinavia with some very cold air in Russia, and a secondary patch cut off over Germany (and the Scottish Highlands). Heavy rain continuing in central Med both weeks, in week 2 this links up with the Atlantic and creating a broader are of pptn taking in Britain and most of W Europe.

GFS Op - trough of LP moving E-wards across Britain and filling over the N Sea; then a strong rise of pressure in N Europe,well established  by Fri 2nd 1045 mb Finland with Britain on its eastern edge slowly extending across the N Atlantic to Tue 6th with SE/E -lies fror Britain, not particularly cold. On Wed 7th LP pushes N from France to settle over N Germany 1000mb Sun 11th with winds turning more into the NE for Britain. The Scandinavian HP collapses from Wed 7th, ut some colder air looks probable at Wed 14th directed by the LP instead.

ECM - The Scandinavian HP collapses more rapidly after Tue 6th and the LP from France moves to the N Sea 985mb Thu 8th with strong cold N-lies for Britain

GEFS - mean temps soon falling to about 3C below and staying there for the N, though in the S briefly back to norm around Tue 6th. Good agreement in ens members close to mean in the N; in the S quite a spread from Sun 4th with op and control initiially going in opposite directions (5C below/above mean about Tue 6th - then control changes its mind and goes ultra-cold at -10C on Wed14th). Increasing chance of pptn in small amounts from Tue 6th, and within that, an increasing chance of snow (snow row figures from 19 in Inverness to 4 in Plymouth by Wed 14th)

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Looks like the good synoptics will be wasted due to moderation of the Easterlies from the very warm North Sea. Frustrating but I suppose that is just the reality of a modern era Winter in the UK.

You mean the modern era that has produced more snow down south in the last 14 years than we had in the previous 30? 😀

Looking at the GEFS there is definitely less certainty and more scatter on the 00Z than there was on the 18Z. If the high sets up too far east then it drags up warmth from the Med, and if it goes too far west like the ECM then it lets in warm air from the south. The GFS ion run this morning gets it just about right. 

Automated output continues to be underwhelming, with a few days of 6C by day and 3C by night before a warm up. But we shall see...

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Looks to me that the initial pattern of HP setting up to the East and bringing chilly air over the UK as it extends Westwards is pretty much set. Given the warm (relatively) North Sea and the air not being more than 'chilly' I imagine it'll mostly be dank and cold, particularly for the East coast, with maybe some wintriness on the highest ground.

Post that a transition to a big Greenland HP looks favoured by the models although how this interacts with developing LP to the South West is very uncertain - as Rob highlights this runs a risk of dragging in some milder air and restricting the colder 850s to the North or even far North. Equally if it does well it could serve to drag in some properly cold air and make things a little more interesting. 

I'm generally pretty sceptical about Greenie HPs when they're modelled post 5-6 days. They look nice and all but closer to the time they have a fun tendency to vanish with a collapsing ridge leading to mild South Westerlies. Will be interesting to see how this one goes but it's at least an interesting set up and currently a basically dry one which is welcome after all the rain this month.

All in all it's a generally chilly outlook although as usual with the UK one where slightly tweaks could lead to a rather mild result🙄😂 

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Looks like the good synoptics will be wasted due to moderation of the Easterlies from the very warm North Sea. Frustrating but I suppose that is just the reality of a modern era Winter in the UK.

The North Sea SSTs are running close to the mean for late Nov, with about 11C to 14C north to south. Although moderation of an easterly has always been an issue in 'borderline' air masses (in terms of snow potential), with the more extreme end easterly flows (typically dub 0 2m, sub -10 850s and sub 520dm) the relative warmth of the sea has generated high-end convective instability and some of the most significant snowfalls. 
As is always the case the sst will cool with time, and I'm not seeing this year's trend to be anomalous with recent climatology. And I don't know what you mean by the 'modern era'. 

https://www.passageweather.com/ 

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