Hippydave
All in all it's a generally chilly outlook although as usual with the UK one where slightly tweaks could lead to a rather mild result🙄😂 

IMO, spot on as a short summary, but far to concise to make the front page of any tabloid 😁

Those peaky HP over will results very boring temperatures range of mild 3-4C nights to less cold 5-6C day time no good for heating bills and no sun or any weather.  

Test reply.

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Those peaky HP over will results very boring temperatures range of mild 3-4C nights to less cold 5-6C day time no good fo heating bills and no sun or any weather.  

Looking at the Met Office App outlook it couldn't be more boring. Let's hope it doesn't quite pan out like that!

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Well I think we really need a direct North Easterly sourced from the Arctic at this time of year if we are wanting to see the white stuff. Easterlies only seem to be any good from around Xmas to March. 

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Noticed that whatever combination of model data that the BBC/Meteo Group atomated forecasts use is suggesting sleet/snow showers from the 10 December. I appreciate that these are not the best forecasting tool, but interesting to see none the less.

EG https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/sa3 

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Noticed that whatever combination of model data that the BBC/Meteo Group atomated forecasts use is suggesting sleet/snow showers from the 10 December. I appreciate that these are not the best forecasting tool, but interesting to see none the less.

EG https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/sa3 

Pretty sure they use ECM ensembles data.
My area now has a single snowflake for that time also.
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.bbc.com/weather/cm23&ved=2ahUKEwiN_rvr09D7AhUGV8AKHeH6B8QQFnoECBkQAQ&usg=AOvVaw1E-_Ob8mVivFwsMPfnoCpS 


 

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Short term pain for long term gain:

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=204&code=0&mode=1 

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Certainly a decent cold pool to the east on the 6Z GFS. Milder air getting in the mix for us southerners but the setup looks decent. 

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Certainly a decent cold pool to the east on the 6Z GFS. Milder air getting in the mix for us southerners but the setup looks decent. 

My hope is that can trend just a bit further south, after the easterly push this weekend we seem to get this milder gunk for a few days from the SE - maybe that's a consequence of a better pattern late next week.

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Short term pain for long term gain:

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=204&code=0&mode=1 

Indeed. The GFS 06Z soon to be retired has delivered something rarely seen (only in virtual space, and a few times in reality) - a proper easterly freeze-up.  -14 uppers knocking on the east coast. Save it because it won't be there on the next run - or will it? 😉

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Certainly a decent cold pool to the east on the 6Z GFS. Milder air getting in the mix for us southerners but the setup looks decent. 

Aye, as many sage heads have always said over the years: get the general pattern in place, then look at the detail.

It's a very rare spell that benefits all of the country. Many is the time this region has been left holding the dirty end of the stick (but others we've been swaddled in snow when others haven't)

 

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Parallel (which takes over tomorrow) is less cold but actually snowier for most of the country with an attack from the northeast. Milder air then spreads in from the south but we will gloss over that. 

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Indeed. The GFS 06Z soon to be retired has delivered something rarely seen (only in virtual space, and a few times in reality) - a proper easterly freeze-up.  -14 uppers knocking on the east coast. Save it because it won't be there on the next run - or will it? 😉

Well, I can guarantee that it won't be there tomorrow because that Op is being retired tonight... 😉

Lots of tantalising output in recent days but also plenty of reminders of just how many pieces need to fall into place to advect cold air to our vicinity.  Whilst the building blocks look encouraging, there is a reason why really cold spells are both elusive and memorable.

To get a decent Arctic easterly feed requires the pattern to remain in place for several days, just to advect the air mass the minimum 1,000 miles westwards that's required.  Northerlies are not quite so difficult but it still takes time.

To be honest, I'm still torn about a very cold spell, given the energy situation.  Ideally a cold spell here which spared much of Ukraine would be nice; along with -30c maxima for the area occupied by Russian troops.

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Met office 1/3 month update just out...

cold December now even more likely, the. Tapering off perhaps for Jan & Feb:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/3moutlook-djf-v1.pdf 

 

Well, I can guarantee that it won't be there tomorrow because that Op is being retired tonight... 😉

The OP is dead - long live the OP!
I appreciate the small improvements in code that have been applied to the GFS high-res run but in reality it will still be the slave of chaos and the scenarios are as likely (or not as likely) to occur in the new model as in the old.
I for one though and looking forward to having just the one run again.

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The OP is dead - long live the OP!
I appreciate the small improvements in code that have been applied to the GFS high-res run but in reality it will still be the slave of chaos and the scenarios are as likely (or not as likely) to occur in the new model as in the old.
I for one though and looking forward to having just the one run again.

All that will happen though is that the OP will just become the control run (presumably with the old control run then becoming just another one of the GFS ensembles), so it won't actually be retiring altogether, and won't be completely dead (it will just cease to be the main OP run).

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Don't think it works like that John my memory's poor but I think the control run is run with different starting data.  Might be at a different resolution to. The rest of the ens are run at a lower resolution with the same data as the operational. They don't replace one another like you suggest 🙂.

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Hi Brian,
Is it just me or have we got the "timeago" class set to Am/PM? If its possible can it be set to 24hr format, if everyone else agrees? Dont know about others but 24hr setting is easier to follow.
 

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