UK Met has milder air in the SE and East Anglia later on. 

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The behaviour of the Iberian trough and the inflation of the GH block is yet to be resolved. What is becoming clear is the focus on something significantly cold in 10 days is moving towards a surge of arctic air from the NNE rather than a drift from the far east, and that needs a lobe of PV to drop across Scandinavia. This route has issues and relies on quite a few things clicking together, which is why we're seeing a variety of solutions on show from the various output and their suites.
No pain no gain as they say, but we have as good a chance of a decent wintry spell in early Dec as we've seen for quite a while. 

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Stunning ECM Op this morning.  Definitely 2010 vibes .

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The SE lot probably less excited by the output than the northern and western areas as the threat is milder weather is always close. Was hoping for a deeper easterly feed. Could be watching others get a decent amount of snow. Just need that low to drop down into cont Europe 

For this week, WX temps in W Europe are just plain cold. In week 2 they're doing the proverbial 'two steps forward, one step back'. The 0C isotherm last night had progressed well to the west across Europe in week 2; this morning it's just hanging on in Germany-Poland. Spain-SW France is looking a fraction milder, this not reaching N to Britain which stays below norm. But in compensation some spots in Scandinavia are extra cold. Rain in week 1 in Med and also standing off in the Atlantic but in week 2 Spain and N Italy getting drenched, Britain on N fringe of this; also some pptn (mainly snow?) Belarus and W Russia.

GFS Op - Shallow trough in N Sea soon overwhelmed by Scandinavian HP by Sat 3rd 1040mb with ridge SW to Britain (MetO makes this look as if there will be fog rather than frost). HP then withdraws to Russia with Britain coming under influence of LP from the S with increasingly colder winds from points between SE & NE. A rather messy situation eventually resolves into a well-defined depression 985mb English Channel Tue 13th though even this has split two days later into two centres, one of Cornwall, one in Baltic states. No intervention from the Atlantic.

ECM - a more certain evolution after Wed 7th with LP to the S as GFS but linking firmly to LP 995mb Baltic states Fri 9th with NE-ly winds from a long way to the N.

GEFS - mean temps consistently 3 or 4 C below norm for the foreseeable, a strongly agreeing cluster of ens members a little below this and the mean held up by a froth of much milder members (esp in S), though none of them consistently mild. As yesterday, control is cold and op is mild at end of period. Increasing probability of pptn from Mon 5th, a fair chance that this will be snow even in lowlands in the N (Scottish snow row figures widely in double figures), even some chances for snow in the S (snow rows here 5-10)

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Surely the form horse is these lows will end up further south? So annoying that it's a bit messy at the moment. I also worry that the GH is a bit to west based. I'm probably panicking over nothing. 

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Is Wetter down?

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Is Wetter down?

Yep it's down. I haven't been able to view it all morning.  Think the site is overwhelmed by eager coldies. 

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Yep it's down. I haven't been able to view it all morning.  Think the site is overwhelmed by eager coldies. 

I mostly prefer using Wetterzentrale over Meteoceil for the basic chart viewing.  The cold colours are less dramatic , which helps temper expectations. 
 

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ECM ENS looking cold.

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Re: wetterzentrale. I can access it. I'm just having problems with the sites security certificate for every clickable link.

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ECM ENS looking cold.

Decent cluster there about -6c . Just about viable for snow I should think.

And it now let's me quote the chart, excellent. 

 

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https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&run=0&time=240&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=6#mapref 

The ECM 0z 240t is a stonking chart if you want prolonged cold. If that set up comes off there's no quick return to mild fir sure.

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Surely the form horse is these lows will end up further south? So annoying that it's a bit messy at the moment. I also worry that the GH is a bit to west based. I'm probably panicking over nothing. 

The models are starting to look a bit 2010ish which as we know was not the best setup for the southeast, but an evolution like the GFSP or ECM would surely deliver something seasonal even for us. I'd certainly be happy to taek my chances with that and at least see those further north west get some snow!

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This mornings models showing a consistent modelling of Pressure building to our north, but inconsisent depths of cold and positioning.

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The models are starting to look a bit 2010ish which as we know was not the best setup for the southeast, but an evolution like the GFSP or ECM would surely deliver something seasonal even for us. I'd certainly be happy to taek my chances with that and at least see those further north west get some snow!

Didn't the SE have some snow earlier in that Dec 10 spell, but then you had a thaw that melted it before the Xmas period? This is all a bit later...

(not that any two cold spells are alike!!)

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If GFS is anything to go by, then very wet and cold but not cold enough for snow! Flooding could be a problem

Didn't the SE have some snow earlier in that Dec 10 spell, but then you had a thaw that melted it before the Xmas period? This is all a bit later...

(not that any two cold spells are alike!!)

I know I go on about this ad-nauseum but in the south east (my part at least) December 2010 was a non-event apart from the snow event on the 22nd which I think warranted a red warning from the Met. I don't recall any other snow of consequence throuughout the month and at the time I was commuting by train from Berkhamsted to London. It felt cold in the mornings but no worse than had it been wet and windy.

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Wouldnt say that - it looks largely dry with bands of light precip (what ever that might be).

Im not seeing any large LPs to our south west pumping up swathes of weather fronts to cause flooding issues.

As a golfer and a trail runner - an easterly will hopefully dry the land out a bit.

https://www.wxcharts.com/charts/gfs/europe/charts/accprecip_20221129_06_282.jpg? 

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I know I go on about this ad-nauseum but in the south east (my part at least) December 2010 was a non-event apart from the snow event on the 22nd which I think warranted a red warning from the Met. I don't recall any other snow of consequence throuughout the month and at the time I was commuting by train from Berkhamsted to London. It felt cold in the mornings but no worse than had it been wet and windy.

As I don't keep notes of the weather my best guide is to look back through my online photos library, as I tend to take plenty of photos any time it snows.
The only snowy pics I have from Dec 2010 were a trip to Winchester Xmas market on Dec 19 which had maybe 1cm of snow on the grass and none on roads etc, then on Christmas Day itself there was a similar amount of snow on the ground at my parents' house in north Devon, and more over the hills of Exmoor. Then I went to my in-laws in Hampshire and there was snow on the ground on Christmas Day and Boxing Day - all looked very festive but I'd say it was only a centimetre or so.
January 2010, and December 2009 (and Feb 2009 before that) had much more snow.

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