Amazing there.
 

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We are at the reminiscing stage of a potential cold spell I see. Always good sign (better than any model) that soemthing is a afoot. I love it 

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A picture is worth a thousand words ... These from the South Downs all close to Chichester.


January  11th 2010 - level snow lasting long enough for me to be pursued by angry sheep


December 2nd 2010 - deep fluffy snow and blue skies - heavenly!


December 9th 2010 - rime ice only, all the snow had gone by the 4th. Pretty, but not the same

The change in just a week illustrates why it is so easy to wind up those of us who live on the south coast by going on about what a splendid month Deember 2010 was.😠



 

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Is it Ok to post a few photos on this thread?

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Is it Ok to post a few photos on this thread?

IMO, few, and relevant to the currently ongoing discussion

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Puzzled by some South Easterners saying December 2010 was a non event. My memory living in North London at the time was about 2cm on the 30th November lasted a few days. Bit disappointing as further north was getting buried.  Then a dusting on the 16th, about 2cm 17th . Then probably the snow event of my lifetime 10 to 15cm on the 18th. During day light hours just a week before Christmas.  Lasted for about 10 days.
 

Because the SE is a large place! At the time I was working at a customer in Tunbridge Wells a lot. I got stuck on the M25 in the snow falling near Reigate on my way back from there on 30th November, and arrived home in Arborfield, Berks to just a dusting.

In the first 2.5 weeks of December 2010, the main snow was IIRC east of London, possibly north as well. Then on 18th December, a band of 100% snow came up from the SW (how often can you say that? It was the polar vortex I think), but despite optimistic predictions, passed through Berkshire in about 90 minutes, and then stalled over the south Midlands. The result was 5cm at home, but the M40/A40 corridor got 30cm or so in many places. I spent Christmas Day in Cirencester where there was 8" of powder whilst there was just a bit of slush at home.

Consequently, those of us SW of London didn't get that much snow. 5cm was the max that month, compared to 22cm in Jan 2010.

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We are at the reminiscing stage of a potential cold spell I see. Always good sign (better than any model) that soemthing is a afoot. I love it 

The wailing and knashing of the disappointed masses comes later. 🤣

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...anyway, back to the future model output...

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Starting to get the impression really really cold weather just isnt heading to the UK.  Dare I say it - Marginal cold weather?

Should that be the slogan for moden UK winter

"Marginal"

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GFS and GFSP both showing less cold air getting into the mix next week.

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I think given the synoptics theres a fair chance they will flip back to colder again

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GFS and GFSP both showing less cold air getting into the mix next week.

The blocking just feels too west based. I worry.
 

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Remembering past years when blocking is about the saying was anything past T96 is FI. No consistency past this time so whilst it's good to watch what might happen, I still think we could be surprised what's in store in a week

12Z GFS output shows how small margins can lead to everything rapidly falling apart from a cold setup POV.

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IMO, few, and relevant to the currently ongoing discussion

Much of East Anglia and the more S.E like Essex and Kent didn't get much lasting snow, although far more than any other this century (other than the Beast which was good in those regions). It's also an age thing. People who lived through the sixties to eighties in the S.E had many falls of over 20cm and drifts of over a metre so no big deal for them.

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12Z GFS output shows how small margins can lead to everything rapidly falling apart from a cold setup POV.

And GEM is a disaster. the models always tease and then cruelly take away😢
https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=240&mode=0 


 

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Starting to get the impression really really cold weather just isnt heading to the UK.  Dare I say it - Marginal cold weather?

Should that be the slogan for moden UK winter

"Marginal"

Same every winter. People see the charts a couple of weeks ahead and 2010 is back on the agenda. Then there a couple of milder charts and the other extreme start it's all gone wrong stuff. The same pattern every year - sometimes it works out, sometimes it doesn't, but experience tells us the real extreme charts rarely materialise. But I guess people enjoy the speculation although I tend to wait close to the time these days.🙂

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GFS control always backing the block west. A very bad trend and we may up with mild south westerlies. Reminds me of Late dec 2010. The cold spell looked like it would be extended another month, but then we got west based -NAO
 

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It will wobble this and that way. Suspect it will be a snowfest for midlands northwards and wet in the south as an eventual outcome.

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Yeah looking like the real cold never gets going. Probably a new signal picked up.