Yes a very interesting end to the ECM 12z tonight.

PS: The GFS upgrade is postponed to Wednesday.

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Wo wo wo wo wo...steady on guys. Careful now. 😁

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Hell of a ECM Op and mean! What could possibly go wrong😁.

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I notice every time the Press printed this nonsense we lose the cold spell.  In the past when I used to buy newspapers they never put this nonsense headlines but only mentioned of any events for today or next day or yesterday reports.  There was no mentioned of Feb 1991 big freeze on the way 2 weeks or 1 week to that, only the day before it arrive and reports what happening every day that it.  More accurate and no curse on that.

In all fairness, that far ahead, even the Met Office didn't have much more of a clue than Mystic Meg in those days🙂

Any way, on current models, the clustering on the Northern ens is rather impressive this evening.

https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/ensembles 

 https://content-eu.invisioncic.com/d321955/monthly_2022_11/20221128_195224.thumb.jpg.afb4046bc4951dfbbe90d5722e9b2f89.jpg 

Stunning mean from ECM

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Sounds like one of your chat up lines. 😃

🤣 🤣

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Hell of a ECM Op and mean! What could possibly go wrong😁.

Well from an IMBY POV and just looking at the Op I'd say the fact the Greenie HP is too far West and the LP is too close meaning milder air is being pulled up towards my neck of the woods. Hard to say if it would stall close to where the T240 chart has it, which would run the risk of dragging fairly mild air up over a chunk of the southern half of the UK or move further East and help to drag the properly cold air right down the country. (That's a pessimistic view but it does all look a bit too far West for my liking, which does encourage LPs on a NE trajectory and blocking the cold air from getting all the way down the country. Obviously not an issue for those further North than me, particularly N. England and Scotland!).




 

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Interesting ECM 12z.

LOL.

The mean chart at Day 10 is extraordinary in the strength of the signal for a Greenland block.

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This is getting quite exciting. I love this forum at this time of year.

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When all of that late warm air was pumped North, there was always potential like this. Be interesting how it could impact the jet stream if it could make it go south as a semi permanent feature or if it could induce the stratosphere temp to alter 

When all of that late warm air was pumped North, there was always potential like this. Be interesting how it could impact the jet stream if it could make it go south as a semi permanent feature or if it could induce the stratosphere temp to alter 

This is one of those 'chicken or the egg' questions.  I think it's at least partly the case that it's the jet stream buckling that creates the warm air advection: it has been the stalling low pressures that have driven the warm air north on their eastern flank. The question, I think, is for how long that upper block then influences the jet stream pattern because we've all seen situations where the block is driven aside by a strong surge of the jet.

 

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ECM ENS 12z looks to contain more cold runs than this morning's 00z update.

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This is one of those 'chicken or the egg' questions.  I think it's at least partly the case that it's the jet stream buckling that creates the warm air advection: it has been the stalling low pressures that have driven the warm air north on their eastern flank. The question, I think, is for how long that upper block then influences the jet stream pattern because we've all seen situations where the block is driven aside by a strong surge of the jet.

 

the block at the moment does seem extreme, but as you say a surge can move a cold stubborn block very quickly. Although stubborn highs have been prominent this year

 https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfsp/runs/2022112818/gfsnh-0-306.png?18 

 Crazy crazy chart from the para

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Day 10 on the iPhone weather app now showing a max of 2C even down here. 

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Not logged on in a few days - has the formatting and layout changed Brian?

Anyway, looked at ECM 12Z! Wow! That's a defninition of a negative NAO in 7-10 days time. La Nina typically favours colder starts or front loaded winter so it's good to see this and even if this doesn;t verify - I would welcome some drier weather at the very least. 

If only this could happen in mid winter or even better over Xmas? - still plenty of time . The Good news is the Europe - esp Scandinavia has been cold so an easterly would drag in colder airmass ! We shall see what happens. 

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Not logged on in a few days - has the formatting and layout changed Brian?

Anyway, looked at ECM 12Z! Wow! That's a defninition of a negative NAO in 7-10 days time. La Nina typically favours colder starts or front loaded winter so it's good to see this and even if this doesn;t verify - I would welcome some drier weather at the very least. 

If only this could happen in mid winter or even better over Xmas? - still plenty of time . The Good news is the Europe - esp Scandinavia has been cold so an easterly would drag in colder airmass ! We shall see what happens. 

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Quite a cold start to the winter for Seattle:
18z

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/ens_image.php?geoid=136221&var=201&run=18&date=2022-11-28&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1 

Anyone also notice that Seattle and in general the Pacific NW Coasts of USA/Canada - Including Vancouver have done exceptionally well for snow over recent winters?

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https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=144&carte=1021 

Odd looking setup on the 144 Meto. Not ofton you will see so much blocking and the Atlantic as dead as a door nail @ the start of December. Whatever it evolves into its going to be  fascinating. 

Extraordinary output continues this morning. ECM looks primed for a Dec 2009/10 repeat of sorts. Gfs Control run into the freezer. 
that would be a proper start to Winter.