Ice day IMBY! 🥶

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GFS 12Z takes a different route. No quick breakdown from the SW but the low stays out in the Atlanctic and seems to be killing the Greenland high. Can northern blocking reform?

Edit: meanwhile GEM is a cracker with snow for everyone, more or less.

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Becoming clear over recent runs that the models haven't got a clue on the track of the LP to our SW next week. The output is all over the place. 

Might be a good few days before the this is resolved. 

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Met Office Global T+168 is a heartbreaker for snow fans in the south.

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Met Office Global T+168 is a heartbreaker for snow fans in the south.

Woyuldn't need much adjustment.

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Control better than the op for a longer spell
https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=192&mode=0&carte=0&ext=0 

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Short GEFS out and sliughtly fewer mild runs than the 6Z.



Interesting how both op and control have been right at the bottom of the pack for the last two runs.

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Starting to look like a 'cold breakdown' away from very cold is more likely than a mild and wet one. 
who knows where it goes from there but another easterly of sorts cannot be ruled out. 

these snow risk maps look slightly 'meh'
https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/snow-risk 

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Met Office Global T+168 is a heartbreaker for snow fans in the south.

Possibly, but there's a lot of snow on the ground on Friday morning, in a broad swathe from Kent west and WNW across in Wales. As much as 10cm on hills and double that on the mountains of South Wales.

In these situations a minuscule change, in global model terms, could dump a memorable snowfall across the south, produce heavy rain up into the Midlands or leave us completely dry.  

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Possibly, but there's a lot of snow on the ground on Friday morning, in a broad swathe from Kent west and WNW across in Wales. As much as 10cm on hills and double that on the mountains of South Wales.

In these situations a minuscule change, in global model terms, could dump a memorable snowfall across the south, produce heavy rain up into the Midlands or leave us completely dry.  

And we will not know for days which if any of these scenarios is most likely.

Still cold and then messy in the medium term as a general summary. The specific details will probably only become apparent at about a day or so out. 

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Not sure how useful the GEFS mean is just now with such a huge spread longer term, but in isolation the mean at 240 has better heights up north than the 06Z offering.
A cold and frosty period a given, with some snow in favoured spots, but I suspect the majority will be looking into next week and wondering if the pieces of the puzzle will slot together to deliver what they crave. As it stands, I don't think anyone can say with any confidence.

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The ingredients are certainly there for a memorable blizzard somewhere, but that could be anywhere from France to the Atlantic miles to our NW. 

Edit: ECM looks like bringing the mild air up from the south pretty rapidly. 

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Just been looking at the Met office fax charts

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/maps-and-charts/surface-pressure 

And whilst there are no obvious fronts over the country as you click through the time frames, there are some strange kinks in the isobars which suggests some weak features,  disturbances.   But too small to show on charts that are covering an area 2000+ miles wide.   They will only show up on high resolution.

Therefore I can't see it being totally dry, actually I will go further, with the ripples in the pressure line will get some white stuff falling, not just a token icing sugar style dusting.

 

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Crunch point on the ECM op -> T144 has the LP a touch further North and milder air encroaching in to the SW. It still has the little daughter LP so need that to skirt east and the main LP to rebound in the Atlantic or this op run will possibly be a bit of a party pooper.

Edit: currently it's pooping at T168!

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Yup, ECM is horrible with southerlies by Tuesday. Hope it's just going off on one. 

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A very progressive ECM 12Z which rushes the mild air in with virtually no chance even of a transitory snowfall.

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But remain bone dry for most.
Honestly, such a waste of synoptics.
I can't understand why we are covered with low pressure and yet it remains completely dry.
Totally baffled by that.

With large LP over us at other time of the year get flooded with rain all the time so why not happening this time? Excuses and stupidity of the UK climate want to avoid snow as possible when it cold enough.  Lost interest now with this UK standard frosty spell which is nothing new as it the same in early Spring time.  

That ECM looks far to progressive. 

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You're obviously not a photographer (or anyone else who enjoys nature)

Gin clear skies,  myriad star fields at night, deep frosts coating the trees - my favourite weather and I'd happily have that every day of the year and never see a snowflake again  (especially since, here at least, 99 times out of 100 if we get a a covering of slushy snow, the skies remain dull and grey until it's all melted).  

Also looks like a chance of some freezing fog to really coat the trees in rime 👍
 

👍 and of course a layer of snow gives us some decent reflected light. First blue crisp sunny day of the late autumn/winter here today and I was out with my camera.

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