UKV is rolling out and looks to be an upgrade on the previous run for Snow for Western England and North Wales on Thursday.

 

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MOGREPS 06z looks to have gone in the opposite direction to GEFS.

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Big shift on the GEFS 06z (at least in the south) from 13/12 with a lot of milder runs now in the mix. Not sure I can recall should a pronounced change on the graphs.

And yet by the end of the run the mean is actually lower than on the 00Z. There are more mild runs early on but equally there are more runs keeping it cold right to the end. 

I wonder when this will finally get resolved. Could be a 72 hour job!

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I notice the new iPhone weather app shows precipitation amounts right out to 10 days. What I can't work out is how it gives the totals. It says "54mm of wintry mix" for next Wednesday which I assume means 5cm of slushy snow, rather than 54mm rainfall equivalent!

Even for places like the Alps where it is well below zero it still uses the term "wintry mix" rather than snow. 

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And yet by the end of the run the mean is actually lower than on the 00Z. There are more mild runs early on but equally there are more runs keeping it cold right to the end. 

I wonder when this will finally get resolved. Could be a 72 hour job!

Was going to make a similar point myself. Almost all the runs that show a rise in 850's then return to sub-0c a few days later (many/most down to the -5 region). If you look at the Ens for a bit further north (like Liverpool or Manchester), the effect is more pronounced (albeit with a lower initial rise).

All it suggests is uncertainty about the track of the low and how far north it gets, before moving away and pulling in colder air again behind it.

It's hardly a 'pattern reset' to zonality.

 

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I've taken the view - I might be wrong that this cold spell will end December 16th - But recommence about the end of the first week in January.
 

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that is very specific..  and based on? 

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Icon seems to be making more of the thursday event from the outset.

UKV is too...

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that is very specific..  and based on? 

I tend to use the tabular format of the GEFS which shows 2m temperatures as a good visual guide to what to expect.

For my location see here 

I don't see any evidence of a big change on December 16. Taking the median max temperature, there is a slight warm-up around the 17th and 18th but then it actually turns colder again.

From that table I would say the most likely date for a change would be the 13th or 14th - that's when there starts to be a significant chance of properly mild conditions.

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I've taken the view - I might be wrong that this cold spell will end December 16th - But recommence about the end of the first week in January.
 

That would be devastating as I really want this to last through Xmas week.

We've got a table booked at a country pub (with real fires) for Xmas Eve and I'd love it to be snowy (last time we had snow lying on Xmas Eve was Dec 2010, and the snow on the beer garden tables was about 20cm deep - was beautiful). We've also not got any family do's on Boxing Day so hve pencilled in a big walk with the dog. Again, in snow would be superb - but even if just crisp and frosty would be fine.



 

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ARPEGE 12Z has a decent amount of snow by Friday.

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ICON rolling and the dartboard low is back and angling it's approach less favourable and looks like allowing a SW flow in eventually. This is all in a weeks time so plenty of time to change again but the little switches in the output today are not conducive to longer term continuity.

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ICON rolling and the dartboard low is back and angling it's approach less favourable and looks like allowing a SW flow in eventually. This is all in a weeks time so plenty of time to change again but the little switches in the output today are not conducive to longer term continuity.

Well sometimes I'm my worst enemy for not taking my advice and waiting for a run to finish. The low on ICON is held up by better heights to the North and starts sliding SE. 

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Well sometimes I'm my worst enemy for not taking my advice and waiting for a run to finish. The low on ICON is held up by better heights to the North and starts sliding SE. 

You should know better than that by now 😁

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Well sometimes I'm my worst enemy for not taking my advice and waiting for a run to finish. The low on ICON is held up by better heights to the North and starts sliding SE. 

Like me writing off the ECM run at 144 hours yesterday!

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Potential feature for some snow in the SE at the weekend something to keep a watch on

What do we make of the UKMO run at 144 hours? Slider or cold spell ender?
It certainly has the LP a lot closer to us than the GFS does at the same time.

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What do we make of the UKMO run at 144 hours? Slider or cold spell ender?
It certainly has the LP a lot closer to us than the GFS does at the same time.

looks to me like it could continue the cold

looks to me like it could continue the cold

But remain bone dry for most.
Honestly, such a waste of synoptics.
I can't understand why we are covered with low pressure and yet it remains completely dry.
Totally baffled by that.

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But remain bone dry for most.
Honestly, such a waste of synoptics.
I can't understand why we are covered with low pressure and yet it remains completely dry.
Totally baffled by that.

I am baffled by your insistence it will be bone dry