Well ECM was at the top end of its ensembles this evening, but some support, all about how far the low pushes North and then where it wanders off to if we are lucky. Hopefully not stay in situ. Interesting watch.
Martin
At 850 level the Op is well supported IMBY and in the majority. Less clear at T2M, suggesting at least some of the members bringing milder 850s in are dragging cold air in ahead of them and it stays coldish at the surface.
Plenty of scatter thereafter in terms of whether the colder 850s returns or not, presumably reflecting whether the LP heads East, fills over the UK or heads further North. Given your comments I assume it's less likely the LP spins up milder air over the whole of the UK.
Be interesting seeing what tomorrows runs bring as we're starting to creep towards the point where the models should be getting a better handle on that LP development and track although it's the kind of setup where changes seem to happen right up to 3-4 days out. (Stereotypically the LP ends up much further south than shown, something I could live with although means no big snow event for those better positioned).
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