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Big shift on the GEFS 06z (at least in the south) from 13/12 with a lot of milder runs now in the mix. Not sure I can recall should a pronounced change on the graphs.
And yet by the end of the run the mean is actually lower than on the 00Z. There are more mild runs early on but equally there are more runs keeping it cold right to the end. I wonder when this will finally get resolved. Could be a 72 hour job!
that is very specific.. and based on?
I've taken the view - I might be wrong that this cold spell will end December 16th - But recommence about the end of the first week in January.
ICON rolling and the dartboard low is back and angling it's approach less favourable and looks like allowing a SW flow in eventually. This is all in a weeks time so plenty of time to change again but the little switches in the output today are not conducive to longer term continuity.
Well sometimes I'm my worst enemy for not taking my advice and waiting for a run to finish. The low on ICON is held up by better heights to the North and starts sliding SE.
What do we make of the UKMO run at 144 hours? Slider or cold spell ender?It certainly has the LP a lot closer to us than the GFS does at the same time.
looks to me like it could continue the cold
But remain bone dry for most.Honestly, such a waste of synoptics.I can't understand why we are covered with low pressure and yet it remains completely dry.Totally baffled by that.