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Shocking downgrade for the ECM meanIs this the moment we all feared?https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=1&map=0&type=1&archive=0
Big shift on ECM ENS 12z. Similar movement to GEFS 12z.
Ghastly pub run for extended cold. Fun and games for the north east before then however.
on TWO it is out to t+180 and it looks good for cold weather fans.
And there was I thinking the 18Z GFS has swung towards prolonging the cold spell again but what do I know? 😎
No let up to the generally cold outlook at T210 with -6 uppers across the whole of the UK.https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2022120618/gfs-1-210.png?18
Eh? I'm watching it roll out and it looks absolutely fine so far, out to Day 9. The LP over Poland/Germany is being modeled to edge west, advecting slightly colder air our way v the 12z.
Yes, I too was wondering where WM was coming from with that comment about the GFS 18z being ghastly for continued cold. Looks better in that regard than the GFS 12z and the ECM 12z op runs, in my view.
Well the 850s rise above zero for about 12 hours at T294. Perhaps that's what he meant.