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Well, you're both right in different ways. The ensemble suite is useful for gauging the stability of the evolution in the short- to medium-term, ie perhaps out to 4 or 5 days. It is beyond that the ensembles can't detect something unexpected that happens in the atmosphere: clearly things do change otherwise the forecast charts would be rock solid for a much longer period of time. We have all seen the ensemble suite flip unexpectedly; it's happened in the last couple of days, as Brian commented.As Rumsfeld said, in a different context, there are known unknowns but there are also the unknown unknowns. It's the latter that brings the uncertainty.
Shocking downgrade for the ECM meanIs this the moment we all feared?https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=1&map=0&type=1&archive=0
Hi David, Yes, better than the GFS 12z and it handles the LP approaching (or in this case not approaching) from the SW very differently. It does mean no widespread snow event but it also drops a deep LP SSE from Baffin Bay, west of Greenland, down into the North Sea and sets up a renewed Arctic plunge as we head towards Xmas.Obviously it will all change again in the 00z and that evolution may not have much ensemble support. It just shows how tricky this is going to be. The Met Office guy on that YouTube video was saying it will be several more days before the behaviour of that LP away to the SW is resolved.
https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmohd.php?ech=168&mode=1&map=10 This mornings 👁 candy ❄️
There's always one isn't there? UKMO and now ECM going cold so of course GFS throws out a stinker.