Sunday 2 Jan - Tuesday 11 Jan

A corridor of thicker cloud and rain likely moving northeastwards on Sunday, remaining mild to the southeast of this, but temperatures returning close to normal to its west. As the cloud and rain clear, northwesterly winds are likely to develop early in the following week. These winds will be strong at times, likely bring showers, and these showers will likely become wintry for at least a short time across the far north. However, moving beyond the midweek period changeable conditions with westerly winds are likely to spread across the UK. Spells of rain will be accompanied by milder conditions, these will likely be interspersed with showers and nearer average temperatures. During this time the most unsettled conditions will most likely be towards the northwest, and most settled towards the southeast.

Wednesday 12 Jan - Wednesday 26 Jan

Unsettled conditions are most likely through much of the period with spells of rain interspersed with drier but still showery interludes. Strong winds likely at times. Early in this period there is a chance of a spell of cold weather bringing a greater chance of snow particularly to northern regions. However, near or above average temperatures are the most likely outcomes. Through the end of the period there is a greater chance of some more settled spells developing, particularly across the S. This would increase the incidence of overnight frost and fog.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Not a bad forecast for May! From the local forecast on the BBC, for this afternoon...

(Click for full size).

Interesting that the MetO written forecast "only" has 15C as a max, will the ECM have pipped it?

BBC weatherman this morning reporting 0.2 hours of sunshine in last 16 days in London

BBC weatherman this morning reporting 0.2 hours of sunshine in last 16 days in London

We must have had a similar amount of sun here in the same amount of time, David. Feels like we have seen hardly any sun all month, even if there are only 7-8 hours of daylight per day in December. I've seen much sunnier Decembers than this in the past.

Tuesday 4 Jan - Thursday 13 Jan

Temperatures are expected to fall to around or slightly below average early next week with overnight frost becoming more widespread for a time. Some wintry showers with snow to fairly low levels is possible in the north with cloud and rain clearing to drier and brighter conditions further south. This regime is likely to be short-lived though as a return to a milder, unsettled pattern with Atlantic weather systems moving across the country is expected through the second half of next week onwards. This will likely bring spells of rain, occasional snow to hills in the north, accompanied by strong winds at times. Overall, temperatures are expected to be above average, although some temporary colder periods are likely.

Friday 14 Jan - Friday 28 Jan

Through the second half of January, a continuation of the rather changeable regime is expected with spells of wet and windy weather interspersed by drier, brighter periods. Temperatures are overall expected to remain slightly above average as a result of mild spells and shorter-lived colder periods. These shorter-lived colder periods may still allow for some snow but this will typically fall over hills in the north. Later in the month, there is a tentative sign of more settled spells developing, particularly across the south which would increase the chance of overnight frost and fog here.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

BBC Monthly Outlook updated: - At least they're honest re the models not performing so well:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Monthly Outlook

 Last updated 15:52 GMT on Sunday 19 December

Summary

An unsettled first week, then improving for all

After a settled dry weekend, Christmas week looks mostly dry and calm for all regions for the first half of the week then wetter and windier for most parts over the latter half. In the last week of the year, the unsettled conditions should soon clear with a trend to a drier, slightly cool pattern. The first week of 2022 should see the settled pattern continue over most of the country, before we return to a more seasonal pattern as we head towards mid-January.

 

Saturday 18 Decemberto – Sunday 26 December

More unsettled from mid-week

High pressure will be stationed over the British Isles at first this weekend. By Sunday and through the working week, the high declines as low-pressure systems move east towards the western British Isles bringing some weather fronts to the country from mid-week. The entire country should remain under dry and settled conditions over this weekend and into the working week. Fog is likely in places. Temperatures around 1-2C above average are expected this weekend before falling 1-2C below average into the working week. From mid-week, it should get cloudier for most with a series of weather fronts bringing periods of rain across the country. Christmas weekend is looking on the cool side and a little breezy with periods of rain over the south of the country and wintry showers possible for Scotland. Temperatures of 2C below average are expected over the weekend.

Monday 27 Decemberto – Sunday 2 January

Becoming more settled again. On the cool side

Over the last week of the year, any unsettled weather should soon clear as high pressure builds over Northwest Europe towards Iceland. Low pressure is favoured across Southern Europe and west of Iberia. After an unsettled start to the week, perhaps with further wintry showers over Scotland, a trend towards a drier pattern is anticipated, especially across the western and northern half of the country. Some sunny days are likely. We will have the risk of fog forming in the early mornings and at this time of the year, any fog could be slow to lift. Most areas should be slightly cooler than average although Northern Ireland could be nearer average. Over the New Year's weekend, conditions are looking to remain settled for most parts.
The models are not performing well this far ahead, so things are far from certain. If the high is favoured further south over Iberia. The Atlantic storm tracks affect northwest Europe bringing more unsettled conditions to the country. We estimate this as a 30% risk at this time.

Monday 3 Januaryto – Sunday 16 January

The settled pattern becomes more seasonal

For week one of 2022, high pressure is favoured over northwest Europe and across the Northern Atlantic. Lower pressure lies over Southern Europe. The trend towards a dry pattern continues, but eastern coastal areas may see a more normal pattern. Near-average temperatures in Ireland and Scotland, just below average elsewhere. Into the second week of January, ¬confidence is getting very low. At the moment we favour a change with high pressure further south over the Azores and lower pressure nearer Iceland. This would bring a seasonal pattern with no extremes. Scotland and perhaps Northern Ireland would see the most of any rain or wind. The pattern is uncertain during these last two weeks with the models not performing well. Should the high become stationed further away from the country, say over Scandinavia, cooler conditions are likely.

Further ahead

Is there any sign of a cold winter period ahead towards the end of January? We should probably look at what the Polar Vortex is suggesting.

”On the cool side” for the current week and the Met Office was also going for “turning colder into January”. Can we just consign long range forecasts to the bin once and for all?

Thought that for a while Rob , pretty poor of late not just for specifics but also the general set up

Something very unusual for January - a yellow thunderstorm warning.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?id=fe88e021-88ae-4e65-aa1d-868496daa9af&date=2022-01-02

It's especially unusual as it doesn't seem to be the usual shallow sort of storms that you might get in winter, it looks more summer-like in terms of setup.

Something very unusual for January - a yellow thunderstorm warning.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?id=fe88e021-88ae-4e65-aa1d-868496daa9af&date=2022-01-02

It's especially unusual as it doesn't seem to be the usual shallow sort of storms that you might get in winter, it looks more summer-like in terms of setup.

I'm glad I'm not the only one who finds that odd.

Thought that for a while Rob , pretty poor of late not just for specifics but also the general set up

Agree its essentially a copy and paste from previous years

Something very unusual for January - a yellow thunderstorm warning.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?id=fe88e021-88ae-4e65-aa1d-868496daa9af&date=2022-01-02

It's especially unusual as it doesn't seem to be the usual shallow sort of storms that you might get in winter, it looks more summer-like in terms of setup.

Just passed through here. Some short blustery bursts of moderate rain though not as much as the radar might suggest perhaps.

 

Agree its essentially a copy and paste from previous years

This link -

nullschool.net *

                             .......... shows that presently and imo, something similar over the last few weeks, a general circulation that routinely, isn't sending storms into the Arctic Basin from the Atlantic to the north of Norway and which for me is the hallmark of winters of the last three decades or so. 

Its different. More like the 50's off the top of my head.  

*Note:   If anyone's not seen this before - you can have a lot of fun with this view of earth with winds at different levels etc. Press link at bottom left corner.  Also click and hold to rotate to any view of 'Earth'    

Just passed through here. Some short blustery bursts of moderate rain though not as much as the radar might suggest perhaps.

Looking at the radar, it's now a mass of summer-style cb cells - only a few strikes, but there's some hail in there and I don't doubt some gusty winds too.

The bulk of the rain seems to be of the 10-28mm/hour rates, but the hail (at least that's what I guess it is) is showing as in excess of 76mm/hour.

9 in Glasgow (and it actually is 9dc)  but suspect as front passes won’t last long before dropping away over course of today. As for snow on back edge as was shown on some graphics :o 

9 in Glasgow (and it actually is 9dc)  but suspect as front passes won’t last long before dropping away over course of today. As for snow on back edge as was shown on some graphics :o 

The time stamp is the issue rather than the temperature itself. Having the forecast 30 minutes earlier showing an afternoon value of (a much more realistic) 2°C didn’t help. 

(For reference it is currently 3°C here)

Tweet from Matt Hugo:

https://twitter.com/MattHugo81/status/1478267152578891776

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