BBC ‘Battleground’ ‘Split Jetstream’ ‘Some will have a White Christmas’
Plymouth 12dc Glasgow 5dc
Mildly underwhelming but could be worse

Generally the chart data goes with the current (previous run) model data and doesn’t attract too much intervention. It’s often been at odds with the spoken forecast let alone the latest model data.

That said those maxima look about right for Xmas Eve based on blend of 00Z and 06Z output.

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Low pressure likely to continue to be positioned to the south of the UK, and high pressure further north. This results in a boundary between colder air to the north and milder air in the south. Unsettled weather results, with increased cloud amounts, occasional rain and some stronger winds, fluctuating north to south through the initial period. Rain may turn wintry at times on the northern edge, most likely across central and northern areas, and mainly over higher ground. Milder temperatures more likely in the south, with brighter colder conditions in the north with some wintry showers. Settled conditions look likely to return towards the end of December into the New Year with temperatures likely rather cold and the potential for overnight frost and an increasing risk of fog.

Updated: 14:00 (UTC) on Sun 19 Dec 2021

 

Any unsettled conditions during the start of the New Year are most likely to be confined to west and south-western regions, where longer spells of rain, and perhaps areas of snow, are possible with occasional strong winds. Through January, cold air is signalled to develop and remain in place across parts of Europe. From here, there is a chance that an easterly wind could bring periods of cold weather, and associated wintry hazards, to the UK. Milder spells are still likely, with these potentially bringing strong winds, heavy rain, and potential snow. Overall, the period is slightly more likely to be colder than normal although a lot of uncertainty surrounds this.

Updated: 15:00 (UTC) on Sat 18 Dec 2021

Seems so much uncertainty 

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Dazza on Countryfile saying so much uncertainty, forecast ‘not worth it’

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Dazza on Countryfile saying so much uncertainty, forecast ‘not worth it’

Forecast for Christmas Day not worth it. He didn't refuse to tell us what the weather would be for the next few days before then.

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Forecast for Christmas Day

Which is all the majority are interested in currently and tuned in for…

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Strange use of the word 'seasonal'. In my book, seasonal weather in winter would mean cold with fog, frost or snow. The BBC are defining it as generally mild and unsettled. I suppose that is the more typical weather in winter!?

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Strange use of the word 'seasonal'. In my book, seasonal weather in winter would mean cold with fog, frost or snow. The BBC are defining it as generally mild and unsettled. I suppose that is the more typical weather in winter!?

They say "At the moment we favour a change with high pressure further south over the Azores and lower pressure nearer Iceland. This would bring a seasonal pattern with no extremes. Scotland and perhaps Northern Ireland would see the most of any rain or wind."

In other words typical pressure patterns for winter which for gives milder SW winds for the UK, with higher pressure making it more settled in the SE and less settled in the NW.

Cold easterlies, or even cold anticyclonic conditions, are not really typical seasonal weather for the UK however much we wish they were. But I agree it is a strange choice of words as most people would imagine "seasonal winter weather" to mean something colder.

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Saturday 25 Dec - Monday 3 Jan

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Surprisingly bullish forecast from the Met for colder weather heading into January!👍👍

Surprisingly bullish forecast from the Met for colder weather heading into January!👍👍

Interesting Update for the better - however I am not buying it just yet given we don't know how Xmas day will pan out and the models are really struggling!

Over the past 1-2 weeks the met were constantly banging on about it being milder further north and west and coldest weather in the south with temperatures remaining below average or rather cold! - Well so much for that then!!

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Saturday 25 Dec - Monday 3 Jan

This period remains somewhat uncertain in detail, but generally sees a split between colder air to the north and milder air to the south. Along the boundary, rain, with a risk of snow, predominantly across higher ground. To the south of this, mild, unsettled weather, with rain and occasional strong winds. To the north more settled conditions; brighter spells, with some wintry showers, mainly in the north and northeast, and feeling very cold in brisk northeasterly winds. Towards the end of the period potentially an interlude of more widely settled conditions, bringing colder, frosty weather. Maybe a risk of rain and snow with stronger winds arriving from the southwest later. Becoming colder than average heading into January with any unsettled, milder spells most likely for the west and south.

Saturday 25 Dec - Monday 3 Jan

This period remains somewhat uncertain in detail, but generally sees a split between colder air to the north and milder air to the south. Along the boundary, rain, with a risk of snow, predominantly across higher ground. To the south of this, mild, unsettled weather, with rain and occasional strong winds. To the north more settled conditions; brighter spells, with some wintry showers, mainly in the north and northeast, and feeling very cold in brisk northeasterly winds. Towards the end of the period potentially an interlude of more widely settled conditions, bringing colder, frosty weather. Maybe a risk of rain and snow with stronger winds arriving from the southwest later. Becoming colder than average heading into January with any unsettled, milder spells most likely for the west and south.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Saturday 25 Dec - Monday 3 Jan

This period remains somewhat uncertain in detail, but generally sees a split between colder air to the north and milder air to the south. Along the boundary, rain, with a risk of snow, predominantly across higher ground. To the south of this, mild, unsettled weather, with rain and occasional strong winds. To the north more settled conditions; brighter spells, with some wintry showers, mainly in the north and northeast, and feeling very cold in brisk northeasterly winds. Towards the end of the period potentially an interlude of more widely settled conditions, bringing colder, frosty weather. Maybe a risk of rain and snow with stronger winds arriving from the southwest later. Becoming colder than average heading into January with any unsettled, milder spells most likely for the west and south.

Saturday 25 Dec - Monday 3 Jan

This period remains somewhat uncertain in detail, but generally sees a split between colder air to the north and milder air to the south. Along the boundary, rain, with a risk of snow, predominantly across higher ground. To the south of this, mild, unsettled weather, with rain and occasional strong winds. To the north more settled conditions; brighter spells, with some wintry showers, mainly in the north and northeast, and feeling very cold in brisk northeasterly winds. Towards the end of the period potentially an interlude of more widely settled conditions, bringing colder, frosty weather. Maybe a risk of rain and snow with stronger winds arriving from the southwest later. Becoming colder than average heading into January with any unsettled, milder spells most likely for the west and south.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

You do realise that you have copied the same text forecast twice!? - It maybe worth previewing it before posting. 

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Darren Bett on BBC weather saying most of us in the mild air in Xmas day but a slight possibility of a white Xmas for some in Scotland.

I think most of us then can write off the white Xmas chances based on that.

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Darren Bett on BBC weather saying most of us in the mild air in Xmas day but a slight possibility of a white Xmas for some in Scotland.

I think most of us then can write off the white Xmas chances based on that.

 Conversely, Sean Batty on the STV News at 6:30 there, was just saying that it looks like the cold air will win out……..but too soon to comment on wether Christmas will be white, p.s………….you’re a right doom and gloom merchant eh 😂😂 

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Saturday 18 Dec - Saturday 1 Jan

Getting into the Christmas period, it is likely to be milder than earlier in the month, with temperatures near to above normal, although some colder spells remain possible. It is likely to become more settled around Christmas and towards New Year with increased chance of overnight frost and fog during clearer spells.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Just a reminder of what the long ranger was saying back on December 3rd. Chocolate teapots spring to mind.

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Very good update 

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 Conversely, Sean Batty on the STV News at 6:30 there, was just saying that it looks like the cold air will win out……..but too soon to comment on wether Christmas will be white, p.s………….you’re a right doom and gloom merchant eh 😂😂 

Well that's Scotland though isn't it so makes sense for there 😂😂

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Very good update 

 

not really down here, south today saying mild or very mild for Christmas into the following week …and with just one night hitting -0.1c this autumn and winter …I think we can say another exceptionally mild start to winter where the grass and flowers continue to grow…sad but true. 

As the post above says… the forecast for down here in the SW is for a mostly mild outlook. I cut the grass yesterday and as of yet I have not recorded a single air or ground frost this Autumn or start to winter.

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