Darren ‘mild’ Brett emphasising how mild Thurs and Fri are going to be - 13C in the south. No mention of Christmas weekend.

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Definite changes on the met forecasts today, this is for the West Midlands for example:

 

Outlook for Thursday to Saturday:

Milder with rain at times and rather murky on Thursday and Christmas Eve. Turning colder on Christmas Day with a chance of snow over the hills later. Breezy at times.

 

Snow risk edging south for sure.

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Definite changes on the met forecasts today, this is for the West Midlands for example:

 

Outlook for Thursday to Saturday:

Milder with rain at times and rather murky on Thursday and Christmas Eve. Turning colder on Christmas Day with a chance of snow over the hills later. Breezy at times.

 

Snow risk edging south for sure.

What does The Daily Star have to say about it. Always admired their output 😂😎

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What does The Daily Star have to say about it. Always admired their output 😂😎

Isn't it them that are forever predicting winter armageddon situations at this time of year, only for their predictions to fail miserably most of the time? Maybe I'm getting confused with another paper.

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Another met upgrade:

Sunday 26 Dec - Tuesday 4 Jan

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“Significant weather”, I like the sound of that.

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Sunday 26 Dec - Tuesday 4 Jan

This period remains somewhat uncertain in detail, but generally sees a split between colder air to the north and milder air to the south. Snow showers are looking to continue across far northern areas, with perhaps some mainly light rain or snow for southern locations. To the south, mild, unsettled weather, with rain and occasional strong winds. To the north more settled conditions with brighter spells and perhaps some frost or ice. Feeling very cold in brisk northeasterly winds for many. Along the boundary, potential for significant weather with snow likely at times in addition to possibly strong winds. Becoming colder than average heading into January with any unsettled, milder spells most likely for the west and south.

Wednesday 5 Jan - Wednesday 19 Jan

Likely to remain colder than average heading into this period, alongside a largely settled pattern initially. Any unsettled, milder spells are most likely to be confined to west and southwestern regions, where longer spells of rain, and perhaps areas of snow, are possible with occasional strong winds. There is an increased likelihood of winds from a southeasterly direction, bringing colder than average temperatures more widely and risk of some wintry showers into eastern areas, with associated wintry hazards. Overall, the likely colder than normal start, becomes replaced by milder conditions from mid to late January.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Wet for the most through Xmas looking at the 21:55

 

Poor forecast

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Wet for the most through Xmas looking at the 21:55

 

Poor forecast

Or a good one if it’s correct? 😉

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Wet for the most through Xmas looking at the 21:55

 

Poor forecast

The forecast just now on BBC News24 was a better reflection of the latest output. It showed the cold air down to the Midlands, lying roughly WNW-ESE, and the comment was that the boundary was still uncertain and could move a little either way between now and Xmas Day, and with it the areas which might see something wintry. Snow showers for Scotland.

Probably for the MOD thread but the issue seems to be judging how much energy is left in the northern arm of the jet.

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The Met Office have issued a weather warning for later today until 4am tomorrow for many parts of Scotland (not here) for ice, snow or freezing rain.

“An area of rain will push northwards into Scotland on Wednesday afternoon and evening, before weakening overnight, falling into cold air and onto cold surfaces. This brings the possibility of a short spell of freezing rain across the Southern Uplands this afternoon, and then perhaps lasting a few hours across higher ground further north during the evening and overnight. This period of freezing rain may lead to icy stretches forming quite suddenly on some roads and pavements, as well as ice forming on outdoor structures and equipment. Although the possibility of freezing rain extends across the entire warning area, it is unlikely to affect all locations, surface temperatures nudging above zero in some other places. There is also the possibility of some snow falling at times, mainly over the Highlands, with accumulations of up to around 5 cm on the highest level roads, mainly above 400-500 metres elevation.”

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2021-12-23&id=1e79bce2-8c5e-4692-93c1-cdb14e7a2138&details

On a different note last night was officially the coldest night of the winter so far with a minimum of -10.2°C at Braemar.

 

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Another very confused update from the Met:

Monday 27 Dec - Wednesday 5 Jan
This period remains somewhat uncertain in detail, but generally sees a split between colder air to the north and milder air to the south. Looking to remain unsettled with further spells of rain for most at first. To the south, mild, unsettled weather, with rain and occasional strong winds. To the north, more settled conditions with brighter spells and winds slowly easing to lead to perhaps some frost or ice. Becoming milder across northern areas in time. Along the boundary, potential for significant weather with snow likely at times, in addition to the associated wintry hazards. Becoming colder than average heading into January with any unsettled, milder spells most likely for the west and south.

Updated: 14:00 (UTC) on Wed 22 Dec 2021

Wednesday 5 Jan - Wednesday 19 Jan
Likely to remain colder than average heading into this period, alongside a largely settled pattern initially. Any unsettled, milder spells are most likely to be confined to west and southwestern regions, where longer spells of rain, and perhaps areas of snow, are possible with occasional strong winds. There is an increased likelihood of winds from a southeasterly direction, bringing colder than average temperatures more widely and risk of some wintry showers into eastern areas, with associated wintry hazards. Overall, the likely colder than normal start, becomes replaced by milder conditions from mid to late January.

Updated: 15:00 (UTC) on Tue 21 Dec 2021

So is it going to be getting milder towards the end of the period or getting colder? Come on Met Office, sort out these text forecasts, they are incomprehensible.

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Another very confused update from the Met:

Monday 27 Dec - Wednesday 5 Jan
This period remains somewhat uncertain in detail, but generally sees a split between colder air to the north and milder air to the south. Looking to remain unsettled with further spells of rain for most at first. To the south, mild, unsettled weather, with rain and occasional strong winds. To the north, more settled conditions with brighter spells and winds slowly easing to lead to perhaps some frost or ice. Becoming milder across northern areas in time. Along the boundary, potential for significant weather with snow likely at times, in addition to the associated wintry hazards. Becoming colder than average heading into January with any unsettled, milder spells most likely for the west and south.

Updated: 14:00 (UTC) on Wed 22 Dec 2021

Wednesday 5 Jan - Wednesday 19 Jan
Likely to remain colder than average heading into this period, alongside a largely settled pattern initially. Any unsettled, milder spells are most likely to be confined to west and southwestern regions, where longer spells of rain, and perhaps areas of snow, are possible with occasional strong winds. There is an increased likelihood of winds from a southeasterly direction, bringing colder than average temperatures more widely and risk of some wintry showers into eastern areas, with associated wintry hazards. Overall, the likely colder than normal start, becomes replaced by milder conditions from mid to late January.

Updated: 15:00 (UTC) on Tue 21 Dec 2021

So is it going to be getting milder towards the end of the period or getting colder? Come on Met Office, sort out these text forecasts, they are incomprehensible.

Couldn't agree more! I don't know what model they are following or have done but there are no signs of it turning colder towards the new year or remaining colder than average and settled and then with an increase chance of a south easterly wind with wintry showers and wintry hazards'! 

PS - I now know that "wintry showers" can be associated with "wintry hazards!" 

Makes you wonder what model they are basing their forecast on. Last week the emphasis was for it to turn settled and drier with colder weather or rather cold in the south with frost and fog over Christmas and milder further north and west! Well bo**cks to that!

 

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I sometimes wonder how much in "forecaster speak" they take account of the average temperature for that time period. e.g. they might describe the first week of January as being "cold" when the 850 hPa is on zero, close to the mean. The coldies on here wouldn't define that as cold but it might be 6-7C which is cold and it is because January is "cold" !

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December contingency planners update

January to March

• Compared to normal, reduced chance of a cold period as a whole
• Impacts from cold weather are possible, more likely early in the period
• Chances of a wet period are slightly higher than usual
• Moderate increase in the potential for impacts from strong winds

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/3moutlook-jfm-v1-secure.pdf

I sometimes wonder how much in "forecaster speak" they take account of the average temperature for that time period. e.g. they might describe the first week of January as being "cold" when the 850 hPa is on zero, close to the mean. The coldies on here wouldn't define that as cold but it might be 6-7C which is cold and it is because January is "cold" !

There are meant to be definitions of "cold", "rather cold", "very cold" etc which are based on departures from the seasonal average 2m temps. 

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December contingency planners update

January to March

• Compared to normal, reduced chance of a cold period as a whole
• Impacts from cold weather are possible, more likely early in the period
• Chances of a wet period are slightly higher than usual
• Moderate increase in the potential for impacts from strong winds

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/3moutlook-jfm-v1-secure.pdf

Actually - reading that isn't so bad if you want cold, despite the 3 month as a whole having a reduced chance of cold!!

Scroll down and you'll see that it shows a 30% chance of it being colder and only 5% chance of it being milder than average for month one (January). Otherwise a 65% chance of it being near average with a 25% chance of it being drier than average. Weakish signals however, - if we were to get any cold and sustained prolonged cold from an easterly as indicated by the BBC monthly, then long range models like BCC/JMA etc and longer range forecasts like Brian of TWO's, Gavin P, Net Weather and even ACCUWEATHER then January could be the month!?

CFS going for an average month overall: 

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Tuesday 28 Dec - Thursday 6 Jan

This period remains somewhat uncertain in detail, but generally sees a split between colder air to the north and milder air to the south. Looking to remain unsettled with further spells of rain for most at first. To the south, mild, unsettled weather, with rain and occasional strong winds. To the north, more settled conditions with brighter spells and winds slowly easing to lead to perhaps some frost or ice. Becoming very mild across all areas in time. Along the boundary, potential for significant weather with snow likely at times, in addition to the associated wintry hazards. Becoming colder than average heading into January with any unsettled, milder spells most likely for the west and south.

Friday 7 Jan - Friday 21 Jan

Likely to remain colder than average heading into this period, alongside a largely settled pattern initially. Any unsettled, milder spells are most likely to be confined to west and southwestern regions, where longer spells of rain, and perhaps areas of snow, are possible with occasional strong winds. There is an increased likelihood of winds from a southeasterly direction, bringing colder than average temperatures more widely and risk of some wintry showers into eastern areas, with associated wintry hazards. Overall, the likely colder than normal start, becomes replaced by milder conditions from mid to late January.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

Tuesday 28 Dec - Thursday 6 Jan

This period remains somewhat uncertain in detail, but generally sees a split between colder air to the north and milder air to the south. Looking to remain unsettled with further spells of rain for most at first. To the south, mild, unsettled weather, with rain and occasional strong winds. To the north, more settled conditions with brighter spells and winds slowly easing to lead to perhaps some frost or ice. Becoming very mild across all areas in time. Along the boundary, potential for significant weather with snow likely at times, in addition to the associated wintry hazards. Becoming colder than average heading into January with any unsettled, milder spells most likely for the west and south.

Friday 7 Jan - Friday 21 Jan

Likely to remain colder than average heading into this period, alongside a largely settled pattern initially. Any unsettled, milder spells are most likely to be confined to west and southwestern regions, where longer spells of rain, and perhaps areas of snow, are possible with occasional strong winds. There is an increased likelihood of winds from a southeasterly direction, bringing colder than average temperatures more widely and risk of some wintry showers into eastern areas, with associated wintry hazards. Overall, the likely colder than normal start, becomes replaced by milder conditions from mid to late January.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

 

Not looking good for us down South, especially those in the South West...

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Perhaps the long ranger outlook will change to something less promising today.
Marco P tweeted that there hasn't been a mild winter since the 1950's with a strong Easterly QBO, but this could be the one.

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